Tropical Depression # 5 Forms

Latest Path:

BREAKING NOW...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM AST.

Strong Thunderstorms Around Area

(Jacksonville, FL) Thunderstorms that are capable of producing wind gusts to 50 mph, cloud-to-ground lightening, as well as, 2 inches of rainfall are around the area. There generally movement is from the southwest to the northeast at pretty good clip. Light to moderate rain will linger till about the 6 PM hour.

Two Players On The Map

(Jacksonville, FL) There are two players in the Atlantic, at this time. The first and more significant of the two is of coarse tropical storm Debby. Debby continues to defy forecasts. Its seems as though when the storm is forecasted to go west, it goes north and when the storm is forecasted to weaken, it strengthens.

Debby should continue on a westnorthwest track for the next several days. At this point, while in the Central Atlantic, the storm should by steered northward- making it no threat to land. What has to happen for this to come about is that a high pressure system, centered in the Central Atlantic has to weaken; this therefore, would create a weakness or , in other words, a path for the cyclone to take.

The other area we are monitoring is just east of the Leeward Islands. This storm, unlike Debby, will threaten the U.S. if it develops. Its eventual path would lead it into the Southeast Gulf. An hurricane reconnaissance hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.

Funnel Cloud Spotted

(Jacksonville, FL) At approximately 2:30 PM a long, rope funnel cloud was spotted around Jacksonville Beach. It quickly moved offshore and is believed to never have touched the ground.

More storms are in the forecast for tomorrow. There is always the possibility that one or two could become severe. However, tomorrow's storms will not have as much energy provided to them by daytime heating in combination with the seabreeze. Tomorrow's high is 91 degrees. Rain chance 50%.

=>Check out photos of the funnel cloud in our photo album.

BREAKING NEWS

Funnel Cloud spotted near Jacksonville Beach.

BREAKING NOW...

Tropical Storm Debby Forms

Latest Forecast Track:

Rain Over For Most

(Jacksonville, FL) If you live outside of St. Johns Country, the rain for you is done. A heavy thunderstorm is currently over the St. Johns River and is moving toward St. Johns County. This thunderstorm has the possibility to produce rainfall, at nearly 2 inches per hour, and cloud-to-ground lightning. This thunderstorm is slowly drifting towards the east, weakening as its doing so. The thunderstorm should make its way complete through the county in about an hour.

Heavy Thunderstorms Moving Through Area

(Jacksonville, FL) Heavy thunderstorms are currently transversing through the area from southwest to northeast. These storms are capable of producing heavy rains, cloud-to-ground lightening, and wind gusts up to 45 mph. Storms will be out of the area by 7 tonight, leaving a nice evening. More storms can expected tomorrow.

Developing Story...

Forecast path of tropical depression four changes

(Jacksonville, FL) Already the path of td 4 has changed; the track has shifted more towards the west. What is really the case is that the high pressure, to the north of the system, has not weakened, as forecasted by the models. This therefore has blocked northerly movement of the soon to be tropical storm. Another 12 hour period is really needed in order to correctly analyze the storm and its future path.

DEVELOPING NEWS...

(Jacksonville, FL) Tropical depression # 4 has formed in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. Satellite presentation is rather impressive and if it is able to retain its organization, it will easily become tropical storm or even hurricane Deby. Soon to be Deby is already quite far north, leaving two possibilities.

One, Deby will stay in the Central Atlantic due to a weakening high pressure ridge; this possibility seems to be more viable, at this time. The second possibility is less likely to happen; however, some of the strongest and most famous hurricanes are notorious for winning against the odds. Deby will continue on her northwest route but when in the Central Atlantic a second area of high pressure could form. This would force Deby on a mostly westward track, a track that would eventually threaten the U.S.

=>Next update 11 PM

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BREAKING NOW

(Jacksonville, FL) Tropical Depression number 4 forms in Eastern Atlantic.

DEVELOPING NEWS

Multiple Areas of Interest

(Jacksonville, FL) Convection over several areas of the Atlantic Basin have flared up through the day. The main reasons for this are the decrease in both the shear and dry air.

One area of interest is in the Central Caribbean. Shear is strong at this time which is keeping development in-check. There is generally concern for this system once it enters the Northwest Caribbean/Southeast Gulf. Models continue to show development of this system.

There are a couple of strong waves in the Atlantic. One in the Central Atlantic some 500-600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles & a second closer to the coast of Africa. Forecast models have been consistently picking up on & developing tropical cyclones in the Central Atlantic. Dry air, shear, and African dust are all on the decrease making these areas some of the most favorable in the Atlantic.

Low East of Jacksonville

(Jacksonville, FL) The pesky low which we have been tracking all week is directly east of Jacksonville. Tropical development is out of the question due to winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, know as shear. The winds are strong, blowing out some 40 knots.
That being said the low will transverse the state throughout the day tomorrow increasing the chance of rain. Coastal areas can expected isolated wind gusts up to 30 mph, as well as, higher seas.

Disturbance Better Organized- Running Out Of Time

(Jacksonville, FL) Thunderstorms have increased around the disturbance during the afternoon; however, its time is limited. Shear and dry air are increasing, limiting any chance of significant development. Wind gusts of 30 mph, locally heavy rain, & slightly higher seas are all possible as the system gets ever closer to the east coast of Florida.

Tropical Disturbance Better Organized- Void of Thunderstorms

(Jacksonville, FL) Air Force reconnaissance flew into the disturbed area of weather off of the Southeast coast. Winds of around 30 mph were found. While it is plausible that this could become a depression, upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable.

Areas along the coast can expect a higher risk of rip currents and a few coastal showers.

Update

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...IF NECESSARY.

Developing Story...

(Jacksonville, FL) Initial model trends send the disturbed area of weather, east of Florida, northward. High pressure should then act as a blocking feature, forcing the tropical system either westward or eastward and NOT towards the Carolinas. Keep in mind that the system is still in its formative stages, and at this point anything could happen.

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DEVELOPING NEWS...

(Jacksonville, FL) Weak low pressure continues to gradually evolve off the Southeast coast. Forecast models continue to indicate the formation of a tropical system. The low will meander for a couple of days before making its move. At this point the effects on the Southeast coast include building seas & surf & a coastal showers.

Monitoring Development

Area 1: A weak front is stationary across Florida and into the western Atlantic. Forecast models have been & continue to show an area of low pressure forming then moving west. This kind of set-up can sometimes develop tropical systems, so the area near & east of Florida through the Bahamas will be an area to watch in the coming days.

Area 2: A second area has blossomed overnight near the Lesser Antilles. While looks are impressive, thunderstorm activity may be being produced by cold air aloft. Sometimes though, these systems can involve into warm air systems, thus the possibility remains for tropical development.

Severe Thunderstorm

(Jacksonville, FL) A severe thunderstorm is working its way into the state of Florida. Large hail damaging winds and the possibility of a isolated tornado are all possible in this severe thunderstorm. Dry air, ahead of the storm, will help to combat resources, needed by the storm in, order to sustain its level of severity.

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Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow

(Jacksonville, FL) An old frontal boundary will be the focus of possible severe weather tomorrow. The front is draped around the border region of Florida and Georgia and is only slowly drifting southward. Winds in the upper atmosphere, in combination with the coastal sea breeze, could result in isolated microbursts and or brief tornadoes.

Rain should be heavy but relatively brief. Timing will be anywhere from mid afternoon to the early evening hours. Chance of rain is 65 percent. High tomorrow 94 degrees.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

(Jacksonville, FL) A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM UNTIL 8:00 PM.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

Monitoring For Development

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Storm Reports

Tornado Reports
-Union County: LAW ENFORCEMENT SIGHTING OF TORNADO AT COUNTY ROAD 18 AND 239.


Hail Reports
-Nassau County: DOWNTOWN HILLIARD REPORT OF NICKEL AND PEA SIZE HAIL. WIND GUSTS ESTIMATES TO 45 MPH.


Wind Reports
-Brantley County: TREE DOWN ON BLUEJAY ROAD IN HOBOKEN.

-Glynn County: MOST OF THE DAMAGE IS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. POWER LINE DOWN ON ALTAMAHA ROAD. TREE IN THE ROAD ON MILLINUM DRIVE. TRANSFORMER ON FIRE ON RIVERSIDE DRIVE. SMALL HAIL.

-Suwanee County: NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES DOWN NEAR DOWLING PARK.DAMAGE TO HORSE BARN AND PORTION OF ROOF ON HOME DAMAGED. TIME APPROXIMATED FROM RADAR.

-Camden County: ON HIGHWAY 40 1 1/4 MILES WEST OF I-95. THREE 8 BY 10 STORAGE BLDGS AND ONE 10 BY 20 STORAGE BLDG DESTROYED. ON BOONE ST. NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS BROKEN, SEVERAL PINE TREES.

-Union County: QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND TREES DOWN ALONG SW 239A.

-Baker County: SEVERAL TREES DOWN NORTH OF U.S. 90 IN GLEN ST. MARY. TREE FELL ON RESIDENCE.

Strong Thunderstorm

(Jacksonville, FL) Our doppler radar is indicating strong rotation about 15 miles north of Sanderson in Baker County. Residents should move to a substantial shelter in an interior room- away from windows. This thunderstorm is drifting slowly to the west.

WEATHER ALERT

TORNADO WARNING OVER- Confirmed Tornado

DETAILS SOON.

Jacksonville Weather

(Jacksonville, FL) Thunderstorms are developing along the periphery of a upper level low, to the south. There are really two areas of thunderstorms, one over the border region, and one over the southern communities of Putnam County. Thunderstorms are strong with hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. Movement is generally toward the west. The majority of metro Jax, Clay County, and St. Johns County will remain dry.

Multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for the following counties:

Florida
-Nassau (until 7:00 PM)
-Putnam (until 7:15 PM)

Georgia
-Camden (until 7:00 PM)

Severe Thunderstorm

(Jacksonville, FL) The thunderstorm over the GA/FL border has estimated winds to 65 mph.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 800-499-1594 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

WEATHER ALERT

(Jacksonville, FL) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
* UNTIL 600 PM EDT


DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM IS LOCATED NEAR WOODBINE. THE STORM IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHER STORMS IN WESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY MAY BECOME SEVERE.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING:
-COLESBURG
-TARBORO
-WOODBINE

Long Term Tropical Discussion

(Jacksonville, FL) The only game in town for the next several days is Chris or its remnants. Chris is currently a tropical depression and is forecast to once again become a tropical storm. Whether Chris does or does not regain tropical storm status it is not a immediate threat to the United States.

Elsewhere, the tropics remain quite. African dust prevails over the eastern Atlantic, keeping tropical waves in-check. It seems though, next week, a tropical wave will be able to break through the dust and become the season's 4th storm.

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Shear All But Destroys Chris

(Jacksonville, FL) Chris is the victim of winds in the upper atmosphere shearing off the tops of the thunderstorms. Chris is struggling on retaining tropical storm status. This sudden loss in intensity nullifies any possible landfall on the Florida peninsula. What still needs to be watched is if Chris or its remnants make it in the Gulf. The Gulf of Mexico could provide adequate enough conditions for regeneration.

The remainder of the tropics remain quite. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Sunday.

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Technorati Profile

Chris Continuing To Organize

(Jacksonville, FL) Chris continues to organize this afternoon and will likely become a hurricane tomorrow. The forecast remains problematic. A upper level low to Chris' northwest could delay the formation of high pressure. This in turn could allow Chris to take a more northerly route. (i.e. South or Central Florida)

Next Update 8:30 PM

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BREAKING NOW

(Jacksonville, FL) CHRIS GETTING STRONGER- NEW MODELS POINT TO A MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE.

Winds: 60 mph
Pressure: 1003 mb

TS Chris Discussion

(Jacksonville, FL) Chris is being steered by the Atlantic Ridge. This ridge to it's north will move Chris slowly westnorthwestward. We will see the track being tweaked from left to right over the next couple of days. The GFS from 18Z (2pm) does take the storm through the Florida Straits, north of the Cuba Coastline. Anywhere from the North Cuba Coast to the the Georgia Coast we could see Chris head. Best chance is the lower portion of the Peninsula and the Florida Straits. Satellite imagery is showing that Chris is actually getting better organized. Chris could be upgraded to a hurricane within the next 24 hours.

BREAKING NOW

BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CHRIS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY... PRIMARILY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

Increasing Florida Threat- 5 PM Advisory

Winds: 45 mph
Pressure: 1007 mb

Chris Gathering Strength

(Jacksonville, FL) Tropical Storm Chris continues to strengthen. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for several of the eastern Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico. The latest air force reconnaissance found winds as high as 50 mph in thunderstorms just east of Chris' center. A complete advisory will be issued at 5 pm.


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Latest Models On TS Chirs

Tropical Storm Chris

Threat to Florida?