|First Official Forecast|
Over this time she will gradually become better organized. Intensification should be moderate in nature- nothing too quickly because their is some moderate shear ahead in the forecast track. Drier air should not be a problem with this storm because all dew points, in the immediate area, are at least 70% or greater, according to satellite estimates.
|Moderate Shear In Area|
In addition to everyday polarity, areas of high and low pressures are added into the equation. For this particular scenario, high pressure will move in tandem with Katia until she is about on the same longitude as the Caribbean Islands. (It should be noted that computer models take the storm north of the islands) At this point, the storm should start to feel the pull of a significant trough off the Eastern Seaboard and the storm should gradually turn more northwest and eventually north. This would keep the, at this point, powerful storm hundreds of miles east of Florida and the East Coast.
If the storm goes along, as forecasted, it would only produce higher and rougher surf for the First Coast. No rain or wind. In fact, it could dry the area out even further, if that is even possible. Bermuda and coastal areas of Canada will certainly be in the cone of concern.
|Personal Forecast: Katia|