SEVERE WEATHER ALERT:

Monday, August 29, 2011

Tropical Storm Katia Forms In Eastern Atlantic; Too Soon To Tell If Threat

First Official Forecast
About for the next 6 days Katia will remain in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, well away from any land areas. I think the official forecast track (above) has a great handle on the situation. The only deviation that might occur is that the forecast may be tad fast. Bottom line still remains the same that this storm will stay out over the the Atlantic waters for the the next week.

Over this time she will gradually become better organized. Intensification should be moderate in nature- nothing too quickly because their is some moderate shear ahead in the forecast track. Drier air should not be a problem with this storm because all dew points, in the immediate area, are at least 70% or greater, according to satellite estimates.

Moderate Shear In Area
Katia should turn into the season's second hurricane by the time we turn the calendar into September and enter the weekend. All computer models are in generally good agreement on the path of the storm. One potential errors that the computers are displaying is that they too quickly strengthening the storm. Some of them even make Katia a major hurricane in just a couple days time. This storm will not be capable of the rapid intensification while it is east of 55 degrees west. Once it approaches the northern most Caribbean Islands it will be in an area that is more conducive for rapid development. In fact, we are likely to see this storm turn into the season's second major storm, with winds above 115 mph.   

Models
Because of the fact it will not be a strong as advertised, by the models, the center will be likely south of the points that the models depict. The reason why weaker storms tend to be south and west of model forecasts has to do with the fact that they are lesser influenced by the polarity of the world. This is why stronger storms tend to travel on more northerly paths or path of least resistance.

In addition to everyday polarity, areas of high and low pressures are added into the equation. For this particular scenario, high pressure will move in tandem with Katia until she is about on the same longitude as the Caribbean Islands. (It should be noted that computer models take the storm north of the islands) At this point, the storm should start to feel the pull of a significant trough off the Eastern Seaboard and the storm should gradually turn more northwest and eventually north. This would keep the, at this point, powerful storm hundreds of miles east of Florida and the East Coast.

Synoptic Scenario
At this point, there are a couple of questions in regards to how strong the trough will be and the strength and characteristics of a possible area of disturbed area of weather in the Gulf Of Mexico. If the trough is weaker or more zonal, than advertised on the models, a more westward track is possible. And could the area in the Gulf act as a pinwheel and actually fling the hurricane to the west in a counterclockwise fashion? Right now, both solutions are possible but the is fair agreement with the models, already.

If the storm goes along, as forecasted, it would only produce higher and rougher surf for the First Coast. No rain or wind. In fact, it could dry the area out even further, if that is even possible. Bermuda and coastal areas of Canada will certainly be in the cone of concern.

Personal Forecast: Katia

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