Significant Weather System Is On The Way

A strong frontal boundary will approach the area, from the west, late on Wednesday, and during the early morning hours on Thursday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with the frontal boundary. Severe storms will only be isolated in nature and not a large, widespread event. As of now, the SPC has only put the First Coast under a slight risk zone.

With a very warm and moist air mass in place across the region, the potential for severe weather is increased. A high enough combination of wind shear and instability should be in place across our region to aid in thunderstorm development.

Severe Weather Chances:
Southern Georgia: 5 out of 10
North Florida: 4 out of 10
Central Florida 5 out of 10


Severe Weather Update:
Tornado Futurescan Product showing that between a 50-75% (Red/Purple area) chance of one tornado in the area, during the day on Thursday. And an 40% chance of 1 or 2 additional tornadoes forming.

Drought Conditions Set To Deteriorate Rapidly

Little rainfall over the past several days means the First Coast could be seeing trouble in its future. What little moisture there is in the soil will evaporate quickly. So far, for April, only 0.71 inches of rainfall has fallen. We will not add much to that total over the next 6 days.

Current Soil Moisture Status

 
Drought conditions appear to be worse over South Florida. But they will benefit from pop-up thunderstorms, during the next several days. Don't count on thunderstorms popping up, in large quantity, in our area. Breezy conditions will likely accompany this dry spell this week. This factor only adds to the fire concern this week.

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What TV Station Had the Most Accurate Forecasts in March?

WTLV (NBC 12 & ABC 25) had the most accurate weather forecasts, during the month of March. They swept competitors WTEV (CBS 47 & FOX 30) and WJXT, in every category. March was a complete roll reversal of what happened during the month of February.  

Overall winner for the month of February (The Most Accurate weather Forecast):
1. WTLV
2. WTEV
3. WJXT

Most accurate 24 hour forecast
1. WTLV
2. WTEV
3. WJXT

Most accurate 48 hour forecast
1. WTLV
2. WTEV
3. WJXT

Most accurate 72 hour forecast
1. WTLV
2. WTEV
3. WJXT


Most accurate 96 hour forecast
1. WTLV
2. WTEV
3. WJXT


Most accurate 120 hour forecast
1. WTLV
2. WTEV
3. WJXT

Busy 2011 Hurricane Season Forecast

The 2011 hurricane season is likely one that will be both active and complex. The best basis for this season's analysis is the 2010 hurricane season. Last year's season got of to a relatively "slow" start. But due to a moderate La Niña, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season finished well above-average with the most number of named storms since 2005.

>2010 Hurricane Season
-Total storms: 19
-Hurricanes: 12
-Major: 5


On to the analysis for the 2011 Hurricane Season...

The 2011 Hurricane Season will go into the record books as another extremely active year. Atmospheric conditions will closely mimic those of the past season.  While the overall number of storms may be similar, there will be distinct differences between 2010 and 2011. One distinct difference will be the strength of the storms. Expect a higher number of major hurricanes (115 mph+) compared average and even last season.  Secondly, general track patterns will be different. Instead of portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico being under constant barrage, it appears that the eastern Gulf (New Orleans, LA to Fort Myers, FL) will be under the gun multiple times. 

2010 Hurricane Tracks

My 2011 Hurricane Threat Zones
Red= High Threat
Yellow= Above Average Threat

Reasons for busy 2011 season:

1) La Nina is likely to be around for the hurricane season and weak to moderate in nature. Over half of the computer models agree with this assessment.

La Nina/ El Nino Forecast Models

2)  Water temperatures will be above average in critical, tropical development locations. Water temperature forecasts can also give a hint on where high pressure systems will park themselves. Notice the cooler than average waters forecasted in the central and western parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Could this symbolize the main path tropical systems will take? Possibly. Notice the cool Gulf of Mexico and central Atlantic? These symbolize my two areas of focus for the season and my strongest analog, 1950 (shown below).

3) Surface pressures will be around average for most of the Atlantic Basin. Not making it tough for systems to form. (Notice pressures are forecasted to be lower than average over parts of the U.S. These lower pressures could act as a magnet for tropical systems. Especially during the months of July, August, and September)

Analog years:

Average Hurricane Season:
-Total Storms: 12
-Hurricanes: 6
-Major: 3

My 2011 Hurricane Season Forecast:

-Total Storms: 17                                                                   

-Hurricanes: 10

-Major: 6

Hurricane Names for 2011:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney