Jacksonville Drought & Smoke on the Increase

With the top levels of the soil becoming bone dry, desert-like conditions will soon take over. Significant rainfall could be weeks away.  The atmosphere is simply too capped to allow afternoon thunderstorm activity to develop.  Hazy/Smoky mornings and afternoons will return midweek, with the lessening of winds.

Current Wildfires- Dozens Cover The Florida Landscape

Current KDBI Drought Levels: (Any level above 750 is considered to be desert conditions)

Clay: 607

Duval: 605

Nassau: 621

St. Johns: 626

May's rainfall was nearly 2 inches below normal. This figure is on top of last year's 17.5 inch deficit. Any help from the tropics is months away. Shear levels are too high to allow any type of development. In fact, June will likely go down in the record books as having no named tropical storms.

June Hurrciane Development

June marks the first month of the hurricane season. Since water temperatures aren't at their highest levels, nor, are shear values at their lowest, development of an tropical system will be slow to occur. June only averages about 0.5 named storms. This means that only about every other June actually produces a named storm.

> Current analysis shows nothing of organization or anything that will develop during the next 3-4 weeks. This means that all most the entire month of June will be free of tropical cyclones.

Current IR-AVN of the Atlantic Basin

> Surprisingly, African Dust does not seem to be the problem. Dust is usually stronger in intensity, during this time of year. Dust usually obliterates the potential for clouds to form and, therefore, rain and development to occur.

Current Sahara Dust

 > What does seem to be a limiting factor are shear values. They are quite impressive for this time of the year. The strongest values are right over the climatological hot spots. With such high shear values (50-60 kts), thunderstorms have no chance at organization.

Current Shear Level Values

> Velocity anomalies indicated more of a sinking motion over the Atlantic Basin. They will tend to be on the downward trend for at least the next couple of weeks.

Upward Motion Velocities

> Finally, as long as the current MJO is not in octane 8 or 1, chances are against there being any tropical storm activity in the Caribbean, Gulf, or Atlantic. Probabilities will be close to nil for the next 45 days, until the MJO reaches the latter parts of octane 7.  

Jacksonville Drought

It is increasing looking like the only relief, from dry conditions, will have to come from the tropics. The bad news is that any near-by, tropical activity is months away. Last year finished around 17 inches below normal. Already this year, the area is between 1-2 inches of rain below normal.  A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather for the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms will be around during the Memorial Day holiday but will not affect everyone. In fact, some areas will not receive precipitation for the rest of the month. 

General Location of High Pressure

As for upcoming summer months, drought relief looks like it will be hard to come by. Climate models are increasingly showing dry scenarios. La Niña has weakened but, for the next several months, will continue to influence weather patterns. It is usual, that during La Niña events, drought conditions plague parts of the South.

Computer Forecast for June, July, & August

2011 General Hurricane Patterns

There are two main paths that long term forecast models are picking up on, as it pertains to tropical systems. One, of which, is the through the Caribbean and into the eastern parts of the Gulf of Mexico. Computer models do not forecast future paths, that are months away. Instead, the best meteorologists have to look at are pressure anomalies.

ECMWF Model Output for pressures

Blue areas indicate pressures that are forecasted to be lower than normal. Yellow, orange, and red colors reflect pressures that are suppose to be, generally, higher than normal. Of course, for tropical cyclone activity and future movement, those lower pressures are needed.

The second major area, that multiple cyclones should follow, is around and just to the north of the Caribbean islands. These tropical systems will get close to the Southeast coast but most should recurve.

ECMWF Model Output for pressures

Another important point to take away from the maps is that this will NOT be a season of long track hurricanes. Pressures are too high and water temperatures are too cool in the eastern parts of the Atlantic Ocean. In fact, water temperatures have continued to decline, in temperature, over the last several weeks.

Jacksonville Smoke Forecast

The fire threat level will skyrocket over the next couple of days, without additional rainfall. So far, for the year, the area is around 2 inches below normal, in rainfall. But, one must remember that last year finished nearly 15 inches below normal. It adds up to being quite a deficit. And along with fire comes smoke.

KDMI Drought Index

SMOKY DAYS AHEAD

Monday: High Smoke Threat
Tuesday: Low Smoke Threat
Wednesday: Medium Smoke Threat
Thursday:High Smoke Threat
Friday: Low Smoke Threat

Saturday: Medium Smoke Threat
Sunday: Low Smoke Threat

The Honey Prairie Wildfire is the one creating the majority of smoke in region. At last count, 50,000 acres have burned, and there looks to be no end in sight. For further updates on this fire check out: http://www.fws.gov/okefenokee/Honey%20Prairie%20Fire.html 

 

Smoke Forecast during next 48 hours:

>Currently, there are only 2 chances of decent rainfall during the next two weeks. The first shot will come this Sunday/Monday. Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this event.

System # 1  5/15-5/16

 

System # 2  5/22-5/23

Complicated Friday Forecast 3/6

First off, not all of the First Coast will receive rain, on Friday. Only about 35% of the area will receive measurable precipitation. Most of the rain that will fall will be light. There is an exception though. As temperatures approach the 90 degree mark, there is a chance in St. Johns, Flagler, and Putnam Counties that an isolated storm could become severe and rotate. According to a Tornado Prediction Model, there is around a 35% chance of ONE weak tornado, in these counties.

Tornado Futurecast Model

Quiet, Dry Weather on the Way

No significant rainfall is on the way. It could be easily a week or two before measurable precipitation occurs in North Florida or Southern Georgia. Temperatures, during this time period, will stay above normal and near the 90 degree mark. Wildfire danger and smokey conditions will likely dominate the news.


>Averages
-Early May:  Low: 59....High: 82
-Late May:   Low: 67....High: 87