91L Likley to Become Emily

With a new month comes possibly another named storm in the Atlantic Basin. There is both good and bad news, with this potential storm.  The bad news is that it will likely create hurricane conditions for islands in the northern Caribbean. The NHC has labeled the disturbed area of weather with a 90% chance of development.

Development has been and will continue to be slow. Conditions are not completely ideal for quick development. Water temperatures could be warmer and shear could be less. Shear could actually increase in the short-term, for the storm, to about 30 knots. This fact, in combination with the system's quick movement, do not bode well for the storm. Once the storm gets on the other side of the negative factors, development to at least a strong tropical storm is possible. After this point, the storm will affect the northern Caribbean Islands.

Model Consensus

The Northern Antilles, US-British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic will take the worst brunt of what the storm has to offer.

Model Plots

The good is that a weakness will develop between the high pressure systems. What this will do is turn the possible "Emily" turn the north and eventually to the northeast. As of right now, all of the models are pretty gun hoe on this philosophy. This means the store will likely not affect any part of U.S. mainland, if computer models remain good agreement.

Emily's Possible Scenario

Tropical Corner: Tropical Weather Happenings

To put it in not so flattering terms, the tropics are about ready to rumble. Currently, there are only a few tropical waves to track in the basin. But if indications are correct, then the dawn of Don will be right around the corner. So far, none of the three storms that have formed have reached hurricane status. This statistics, too, will also change.

7-27-2011 Atlantic Satellite

Shear levels have decreased significantly over much of the Atlantic Basin. One would have guessed that this would the case sooner rather than later thanks to the wavering of the weather pattern between "La Nada" and "La Nina." Another factor that usually produces shear are upper level lows. But, as of now, much of the Atlantic Ocean is free of TUTTs or upper level lows.

Shear Values: Brighter Colors Indicate Higher Areas of Shear

So, as the calendar page gets ready to flip another page, upward vertical velocities are set to increase, shear will continue to minimize, and water temps will continue to stay warm. Even though these conducive will likely produce a couple of named storms between now and mid-August, there is no need to worry.

Vertical Velocity Anomalies

Patterns are such that the U.S. need not worry, at least through the mid parts of August. The first area to watch closely has been associated with tropical disturbances this season; it includes the NW Caribbean and extreme Southwestern Gulf. Dry conditions, brought to you by high pressure over the South, will likely guide whatever does form on a more westerly course towards Central America.  As for the second area of concern, we will likely be watching in the Central Atlantic.  As what ever does form gathers strength, a prolonged weakness will likely guide this it out into the open Atlantic waters, well away from land.

Two Areas of Concern

Heat From Satellite

No Significant Tropical Development Anytime Soon

Officially, the Atlantic Basin is suffering from "La Nada" conditions. This is basically the wavering between the status of El Nino and La Nina. Overall, upper level winds are too strong for development and deep, warm ocean water is mediocre, as it pertains to current coverage. 

Wavering Between El Nino and La Nina

These poorer conditions for development are likely to continue for sometime. Velocity potential forecasts depict deteriorating conditions for the rest of the month and into a good deal of August. In fact, at the current rate, the 2011 hurricane season is looking more and more like a dud. It will be at least the mid to late August under we see marginal development conditions take over the basin.

Velocity Potential Forecasts

There is a caveat to this hypothesis, though. A strong tropical wave is likely to form in the central Atlantic. It may or may not gain the name of Bret. Whether it does or does not gain a name, will not be of any consequence. The system will face the wrath of dry air and hostile winds. These hostile conditions will keep the possible system far away from the U.S. and  possibly even the Caribbean Islands.

June 2011 Weather Summary

June was a month that many in the South would rather forget. Many states, including Florida, broke and set new records. This was because of several areas of high pressure controlling what happened in much of the southern third of the nation. June 2011 was notorious for being an active wildfire month.

If not for late month rains in the State of Florida, it would have joined New Mexico as the driest June on record. Overall, 6.07 inches of rainfall fell in Jacksonville. The rainfall, that fell, did little to stop Florida from bringing in its 9th driest June in recorded history.

Precipitation Rank

Because there was very little to mix the atmosphere and the pattern up, temperatures responded by climbing to record levels. June 2011 in Florida was the 5th hottest June, in the last 117 years. June's hottest temperature in Jacksonville was 98 degrees. 23 of June's 31 days had high temperatures of 90 degrees or above. The year 2011 already has recorded 54 days of temperatures of at least 90 degrees.

June 2011 Temperature Rank; Out of 117

Record Low Sea Ice

The amount of sea ice around the world is at the second lowest level ever, of any measured summertime period. Average ice extent fell below that for June 2007, which had the lowest minimum ice extent at the end of summer. However, ice extent this year was greater than in June 2010. The sea ice has entered a critical period of the melt season: weather over the next few weeks will determine whether the Arctic sea ice cover will again approach record lows. At the current pace, sea ice will likely near the critical value levels suffered during 2007.

July Sea Ice Extent

 
Global composite temp.: +0.31 C (about 0.56 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.38 C (about 0.68 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.25 C (about 0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.

Live Space Shuttle Camera

(Click on right arrow in center of picture to play.)

Streaming Live by Ustream

Planet Neptune Makes Full Orbit

Neptune has been in human existence since the mid 1800's. But since the point of its discovery, it has yet to make one full revolution. That will change next week. Tuesday, July 12th will make the first time in over 150 years that the planet will make a complete oval, around the sun.

Southeast Georgia Smoke Forecast

Areas of Concern

Smoke continues to blanket portions of Georgia. The culprit is the Honey Prairie Fire Complex. This wildfire continues to burn and is only about 70% contained. So far, it has burned close to 300,000 acres.   
The fire will remain active until the area receives decent rainfall. As of now, large scale rains are not anticipated. Fires crews from 47 states are helping to fight the fire. 

Smoke Dispersion Direction (for SE GA):
Thursday: Wind From the SE will push smoke to NW; Smoke Index: 3 out of 10
Friday: Wind From the SSE will push smoke to NNW;  Smoke Index: 2 out of 10
Saturday: Wind From the WSW will push smoke to ENE; Smoke Index: 5 out of 10
Sunday: Wind From the WSW will push smoke to ENE;  Smoke Index: 4 out of 10
Monday: Wind From the SW will push smoke to NE;  Smoke Index: 3 out of 10

Shuttle Forecast

At this point in the game, NASA is only giving Space Shuttle Atlantis a 40% chance of a "go" on Friday, at 11:26 am. Chances of better weather increase on both Saturday and Sunday, as somewhat drier air will filter into Cape Canaveral. This space shuttle launch is the last one ever scheduled.

What is happening is a wave of tropical moisture is moving around a periphery of a ridge of high pressure. The added moisture is the reason for the increased chance of precipitation. Thunderstorms will generally form closer to the coast and move their way inland.  

Synoptic Scenario

Chances of Launch:
Friday: 40%
Saturday: 50%
Sunday: 60%

Launch Weather Criteria For Space Shuttle

The basic weather launch commit criteria on the pad at liftoff must be:

Temperature:

• Launch can not take off is 24 hour average temperature has been below 41 degrees.

Wind:

• The peak wind speed allowable is 30 knots. 
• When the wind direction is between 100 degrees and 260 degrees, the peak speed varies for each mission and may be as low as 24 knots.

Precipitation:

• None at the launch pad or within the flight path.

Lightning:

• Do not launch if lightning has been detected within 10 nautical miles of the pad or the planned flight path within 30 minutes prior to launch.

Clouds: 

• Direct visual observation of the Shuttle is required through 8,000 feet. This requirement may be satisfied using optical tracking sites or a forward observer
• the vehicle integrity can be observed without interruption through 6,000 feet.

• the thickness of the clouds must be less than 500 feet

July Hurricane Forecast

All-in-all July should end up being another calm month, in the tropics. There will be a few exceptions to the rule, though. July averages a named storm about once every 1.2 years. With this year forecasted to be active, it should not be a surprise to anyone to see activity this month. Typically, the Gulf of Mexico, western Atlantic, and eastern Caribbean end up being the areas to watch.

Previous July Formations of Named Tropical Cyclones

This July, I think that the southeastern part of the Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche Area) could produce an additional cyclone. If you remember, Arlene, this year's first named storm, formed there and ended up making landfall on Mexico. It is plausible that this scenario happens again, during this month.

For the majority of us, interested in the tropics, it will certainly feel like a slow producing month. And it will be because of certain limiting factors. First off, shear continues to be relatively high across many of the climatological producing areas.

Shear Map

Secondly, the MJO, as well as upward velocities, will be in the wrong status for major development. Currently, the Atlantic is in octane 1/2, these octanes are the ones you want to be in if you want to see development, in the Atlantic Basin. But we are not seeing development. So, we will likely have to wait for a full revolution to occur, before we start to season the season really crank storms out. This could be around 45 days from now, which puts us in ideal timing for the active part, of the hurricane season.    

MJO- As of Early July

Upward Vertical Velocities

>In summary, Bret, the next named storm, could form during the month of July. But, it will likely not become strong and overly destructive. It looks as though Cindy will have to wait well into August. Late August looks like it will be particularly busy. So stay tuned!

July Concerns

Arlene 2011 Summary

Satellite Picture Of Arlene Shortly After Landfall

Arlene was the first tropical cyclone of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. It formed over the Bay of Campeche late on June 28; with a closed circulation that was detected and tropical storm-force winds it was upgraded to a tropical storm. Arlene had a large circulation, bringing heavy rain over a large area of Mexico, and southern portions of Texas. Making landfall near Cabo Rojo on June 30 with sustained winds of 65 mph, Arlene later dissipated over the mountains of eastern Mexico early on July 1.

Tropical Storm Arlene Developed Over The Bay Of Campeche And Stayed There.