Tropical Storm Katia Forms In Eastern Atlantic; Too Soon To Tell If Threat

First Official Forecast

About for the next 6 days Katia will remain in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, well away from any land areas. I think the official forecast track (above) has a great handle on the situation. The only deviation that might occur is that the forecast may be tad fast. Bottom line still remains the same that this storm will stay out over the the Atlantic waters for the the next week.

Over this time she will gradually become better organized. Intensification should be moderate in nature- nothing too quickly because their is some moderate shear ahead in the forecast track. Drier air should not be a problem with this storm because all dew points, in the immediate area, are at least 70% or greater, according to satellite estimates.

Moderate Shear In Area

Katia should turn into the season's second hurricane by the time we turn the calendar into September and enter the weekend. All computer models are in generally good agreement on the path of the storm. One potential errors that the computers are displaying is that they too quickly strengthening the storm. Some of them even make Katia a major hurricane in just a couple days time. This storm will not be capable of the rapid intensification while it is east of 55 degrees west. Once it approaches the northern most Caribbean Islands it will be in an area that is more conducive for rapid development. In fact, we are likely to see this storm turn into the season's second major storm, with winds above 115 mph.   

Models

Because of the fact it will not be a strong as advertised, by the models, the center will be likely south of the points that the models depict. The reason why weaker storms tend to be south and west of model forecasts has to do with the fact that they are lesser influenced by the polarity of the world. This is why stronger storms tend to travel on more northerly paths or path of least resistance.

In addition to everyday polarity, areas of high and low pressures are added into the equation. For this particular scenario, high pressure will move in tandem with Katia until she is about on the same longitude as the Caribbean Islands. (It should be noted that computer models take the storm north of the islands) At this point, the storm should start to feel the pull of a significant trough off the Eastern Seaboard and the storm should gradually turn more northwest and eventually north. This would keep the, at this point, powerful storm hundreds of miles east of Florida and the East Coast.

Synoptic Scenario

At this point, there are a couple of questions in regards to how strong the trough will be and the strength and characteristics of a possible area of disturbed area of weather in the Gulf Of Mexico. If the trough is weaker or more zonal, than advertised on the models, a more westward track is possible. And could the area in the Gulf act as a pinwheel and actually fling the hurricane to the west in a counterclockwise fashion? Right now, both solutions are possible but the is fair agreement with the models, already.

If the storm goes along, as forecasted, it would only produce higher and rougher surf for the First Coast. No rain or wind. In fact, it could dry the area out even further, if that is even possible. Bermuda and coastal areas of Canada will certainly be in the cone of concern.

Personal Forecast: Katia

Record Heat In Jacksonville, Northeast Florida, and Southeast Georgia

THE SUMMER OF 2011 CONTINUES TO BRING RECORD-BREAKING HEAT ACROSS 
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. SINCE MID TO LATE 
JULY ALL OF THE CLIMATE STATIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE RECORD 
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER.

AT ALMA GEORGIA...THROUGH TODAY...AUGUST 29TH...THERE HAVE BEEN 43 
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER WHICH RANKS 3RD OVERALL. 
THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 56 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WAS SET EARLIER THIS 
SUMMER FROM MID MAY TO MID JULY. SINCE MAY 20TH...99 OUT OF THE PAST 
102 DAYS HAVE REACHED AT LEAST 90 DEGREES. IN FACT...TODAY WAS THE 
14TH TIME ALMA REACHED AT LEAST 100 DEGREES THIS YEAR...TYING THE 
ALL-TIME RECORD SET BACK IN 1954 AND AGAIN IN 1995.

AT ST SIMONS ISLAND...THROUGH TODAY...AUGUST 29TH...THERE HAVE BEEN 
28 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER WHICH RANKS 2ND OVERALL.
THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 38 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WAS SET IN THE SUMMER OF 
1993. 

AT JACKSONVILLE...THROUGH TODAY...AUGUST 29TH...THERE HAVE BEEN 42 
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER WHICH RANKS 3RD OVERALL.
THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 50 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WAS SET IN THE SUMMER OF 
2010. 

AT GAINESVILLE...THROUGH TODAY...AUGUST 29TH...THERE HAVE BEEN 41 
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER WHICH RANKS 3RD OVERALL.
THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 49 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WAS SET IN THE SUMMER OF 
2010. 

Irene: Much A Do About Nothing; little damage reported

"Hurricane" Irene made landfall along the Outer Banks of North Carolina around the 8 am hour on August the 27th. There were NO hurricane SUSTAINED force winds reported at land based, sea based, or hurricane chaser observations sites. There were only a handful of reported hurricane gusts.

(Definition of a hurricane: : a tropical cyclone with sustained of winds of 74 miles (119 kilometers) per hour or greater)

The map below depicts the SUSTAINED winds around the time of landfall. Most winds are less than required tropical storm force (39 mph).

Observations of Sustained Winds Around Time of Landfall

Satellite Picture At Time Of Landfall

River Stages- Aug. 27th

All the green dots, on the U.S. map above, are rivers that are within their banks. Yellow/Orange dots indicate flooding that could happen or that is happening. Eastern parts of VA and NC have been in a drought in recent months so all the rain is certainly welcomed news.

 We will have to wait until December for the NHC official report and investigation to come out to find out what Irene's true strength was.

Bottom line: This was not a historic storm, this was not the "big one," and this storm will not rack up billions of dollars in damage, in the Continental U.S. 

Irene The Most Hyped Storm Of The Century?

Irene's Surface Winds On Surface

First it was New Orleans that was threatened by Irene's path, then Tampa, Miami, Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, and Wilmington. None have experienced damaging winds and few even will. In fact, hurricane force winds only exist in a small quadrant of the storm (as depicted by the map above). It seems as though I am not the only meteorologist who agrees with this assessment. (Below is a screen grab of the drudge report)

>Verification of my personal forecast:

Smoky Conditions In Jacksonville

Multiple Fires Continue To Burn Over SE Georgia

With the predominant NW flow over the area for the next several days, expect hazy and smoky conditions to continue. The smoke is predominantly from 2 major fires in SE Georgia. The smoke and haze in combination with temperatures around 100 for the next several days might make it miserable for some.

In related news, today was the 39th day, in a row, that high temperatures have reached at least the 90 degree mark. Look for us to challenge last year's record of 55 days in a row with high temperatures of at least 90 degrees.

Future Movement Of Irene

Interesting synoptics have formed tonight, in regards to Irene. Notice how pressures on the map below have formed  a "V" shape.  This is likely an indication that Irene will travel in a more north and easterly direction for the next couple of hours. It is in essence pointing where her future track lies. Tropical systems travel towards areas of lower pressures. Currently, lower pressures exist are over ocean. This could end up being good news in the long run because of the fact that Irene will likely now stay offshore of North Carolina.

This more easterly motion that is starring all meteorologists in the face this evening should not be a surprise. One of the BAMS models has been showing this more easterly path for days. To sum it all together, residents in the States of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina are not in any danger. They can expect just some rough seas and high surf. The majority of residents in North Carolina and Virginia will also just minimal impacts. In fact, the Outer Banks of North Carolina and other land masses that protrude into the Atlantic Ocean, such as Cape Cod, may be the only places that experience true hurricane conditions.

Irene Model Plot

Virginia/ East Coast Earthquake Map

Irene Struggling To Maintain Intensity

Increased shear, dry air, and upwelling all appear to be taking their toll on the hurricane. Many of the deeper/colder cloud tops have dissipated over the nighttime hours. This apparent weakening trend has been confirmed by hurricane hunter aircraft who have found an everly increasing pressure. Soon wind speeds will respond.

Satellite Picture Of Storm

There remain two important questions: 1) Will the weakening trend continue? 2) And where will Irene travel to?

Lets start off with the second question first. All of the more reliable computer models now never strike land and have this hurricane recurving out into the Atlantic Ocean. The computer models have a pretty good grasp on the storm and the synoptics. Don't be surprised if there is even yet another shift to the right. In fact, as I am writing this, the computer model that has always been on the left side of the model guidance (NAM model) is now coming in significantly right of its previous forecasts.

As for intensity, there appears to be lots of arc clouds on the western side of the circulation. This is clear evidence that the storm is being affected by shear and that the storm is declining, somewhat, in intensity. The SHIPS forecast model is evening forecasting increased shear around 20 knots, throughout the day.

Computer Models Of Irene's Strength

None of the computer models make this a category 5 hurricane and few even make the hurricane a category 4. In fact, the official forecast is even below category 4 strength. Do not be surprised if the storm does make it to be a major hurricane, which means will stay below 115 mph. Increasing shear ahead of numerous shortwaves and plentiful dry air is to blame for the suffocation of the storm.

Jacksonville Record Streak Of 90 Degree Temperatures

The record for the most consecutive 90-degree days was set, just last year, at 50 days. And it appears this year will challenge the old record. As of Tuesday, there have been 36 days, in a row, where the mercury at Jacksonville International rose to 90 degrees or more. That means that with just 2 more weeks, with temperatures at 90 or above, a new record year will be proclaimed.


Here are the forcasted high temperatures for the next to weeks (from the GFS forecast model):
8/24: 94
8/25: 93
8/26: 91
8/27: 93
8/28: 98
8/29: 98
8/30: 94
8/31: 97
9/1: 98
9/2: 96
9/3: 97
9/4: 96
9/5: 93
9/6: 92
9/7: 92

Irene NOT A Threat To Jacksonville

Major Model Plots

All GFS Ensembles

Latest computer models continue to show that Irene will have limited effects on the First Coast. The storm will pass to the east of Florida by several hundred miles. In fact, the storm may be a bigger issue for Bermuda and parts of Newfoundland, than the United States. Most, if not all the reliable computer models have the storm moving east of North Carolina. The States of Georgia and South Carolina are also sitting in safe, dry spots, from the storm, and will not see any effects, except probably for some high seas and surf. North Carolina should still watch this storm, but it appears that what the worst that this storm has to offer will be limited to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Irene's Effects for First Coast:

-Rough seas and surf through weekend (this includes rip currents)

-Breezy conditions (but less than 25 mph)

-NO rain

-Warm Temperatures (At least 92 degrees through week and weekend)

Irene's Forcast for Jacksonville Area

There is a lot of wishcasting going on right concerning the future of Irene. Once again Florida will escape most, if not all of the affects of the hurricane. The only result of the storm Florida will see is some increased surf activity. There remains a decent sized trough that will pull the storm to the north and northeast. This trough is being forecasted by all of the best computer models.

GFS 500 mb Forecast Model

Trough Already In View

The turning mechanism for the storm is almost in place, and the storm may already be seeing the affects of this. See the "U" shaped weather feature over Ohio, Pennslyvania, and New York? That is the weather feature of importance; its the trough.

The stronger the storm is, the more likely it will feel the trough and get pulled into it. And the higher up you go in the atmoshpere the more pronounced the weakness is. Troughiness has really been part of this summer's pattern along the East Coast. As a result of the synoptics computer models look like this:

The one I have been following throughout this storm has been the Navy's NOGAPS. On this map, it does not even show that the storm is a threat to the Outer Banks, of NC. As a reminder, here is was my first forecast: (My second forecast for the storm has even shifted further east)

My Personal First Forecast

Second Call

At Irene's closest approach to the First Coast, the storm could be around 350 miles offshore. Again, this would provide nothing but sunshine for the First Coast and maybe the longest streak of 90 degree temperatures in Jacksonville's history.

Irene's Effects for First Coast:

-Rough seas and surf through weekend (this includes rip currents)

-Breezy conditions (but less than 30 mph)

-Little to NO rain

-Warm Temperatures (At least 92 degrees through week and weekend)

I guess the doom and gloom sayers have to wait to the next storm. The latest on the real threat to the First Coast (The Drought) later on.

And if you don't believe in what my forecast says hop on over to see what meteorologist Mike Buresh says about the tropics. He has a great write up on the storm. (Preview: He is not crying wolf)

http://www.actionnewsjax.com/content/talkingtropics/story/Hispaniola-to-Be-Skirted-by-Irene/1F58fgkvoUSE96NINclDzg.cspx

Quick Update:
Newest GFS Model run in. The storm may even pass Jacksonville to east around 500 miles.

Video of Irene Affecting Puerto Rico

Tracking Tropical Storm Irene

Cruz Bay Ferry Dock, St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands

St. John, U.S.
  Virgin Islands

Barbados Cam

>>> Puerto Rico Cam (link)
>>>St. Croix Cam Live (link)

Guadeloupe Radar

Tropical Storm Irene Forms

Tropical storm Irene is the ninth named storm of the 2011 hurricane season. There are two big questions with this storm: 1) How strong will the storm get? 2) Where will she go?

Right now, the latter of the questions is easier to answer than the future strength. The storm will track between two areas areas of high pressure before it feels the weakness created by a trough. The end result is a track that is either near Florida or one that makes landfall on the State. Forecast models have been in relatively good agreement about this for a few days. Any threat from Irene would not come before this Friday (August 26th).

The good and bad news with the storm is that future intensity is not known. Forecast models depict anything from a tropical storm to a hurricane, around the Florida Peninsula, next weekend. The best guess is, right now, Emily will have a tropical storm status, if best, at its closest approach to Florida. We have seen this scenario time and time again, and even this season, where tropical cyclones are all but destroyed by the most mountainous Caribbean Islands. Remember Emily?

Emily 2011 Path

Emily was all but obliterated, for a time, because of the mountain ranges on the Island of Hispaniola. So far, Irene is at the exact same latitude and longitude as Emily. If a weak tropical can emerge from the Caribbean Sea it has the potential to provide much needed rain for Florida.

I do think the official forecast track track may be little bit too far south then where it should be. Overall, I think the Navy NOGAPS has a good handle on the situation (https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_atlantic&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2011082018&set=All).

Official Forecast

And, finally, my personal forecast. I do think that South Florida will get in on the rains/wind from the storm but the worst will stay offshore. Places such as North Florida and South Georgia would escape most, if not all, of what Irene would have to offer. I think every weather forecaster would agree that this storm is NOT the "big one" that people in Jacksonville or even Tampa have been worrying about for decades. Remember, the first forecast of any meteorologist usually has a great error. 

Personal Forecast

Remember Irene in 1999? A similar repeat of what that storm brought to the State is something to ponder about.

Irene 1999 Path

Tropics Are On Verge Of Ramping Up

So far, the 2011 tropical season has been limited  by too much dry air and subsidence across the entire basin. As temperatures start to cool across the Midwest and other continental locations of the U.S., an increase in instability should generally work it way across the Basin.

Caribbean Instability Running Below Normal

Instability's weakness is really the main playing card that is holding out this season, since shear is lesser than what it should be and water temperatures are warm. (Low levels of shear is a great indication that La Nina is making an effort to stick around.)

Caribbean's Shear Below Normal

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Probability

Probabilities of seeing cyclone form have absolutely skyrocketed over just recent days. This pattern change that we are in the midst of is not foreign, we have seen it before. You know how this it was extremely hot across much of the South, from D.C. to Texas, this summer? Look at  August 1999's heat anomaly map. Almost all the areas that suffered from the heat this year also sizzled during the summer of 1999. 

 

The consequence of such similarities equates to an increased risk of tropical cyclones along the Southeastern Coast. 1999 was also a La Nina year. Of course, the exact paths of future named storms is yet to be determined.

1999 Hurricane Season

Weekly Tropical Forecast

2011 Hurricane Season- So Far

Unusual numbers of weak tropical cyclones continue to develop in the Atlantic Ocean. We can already write off two more names on the list, Franklin and Gert. For the most part, land masses were sparred with both of these storms. Bermuda did end up getting a few showers and gusty winds from Gert, but, for the people on the island nation, it was just another walk in the park. Areas of troughiness have prevented storms from coming anywhere close to the coastline of the U.S.  

Troughiness Relaxes-Forecast

Do not get used to the pattern because we are on the verge of a pattern change. Notice areas of orange over the Northeast U.S. and over Canada, in the map above. Instead of troughs, we will be talking about more ridging in the East. This means drier times ahead for the First Coast. But what does it mean for the the tropics and the eventual evolution of Harvey?

It basically means that the chances are much better that he gets much closer to the U.S. then many of the previous storms this season. As for exactly where, the models are all over the place. Check out 2 solutions the GFS came out with within 12 hours of each other (below). The run solutions stretch from Central America to off the East Coast.

Harvey Landfalling in Central America

Harvey Recurving Away From U.S.

This model, nor any of the others, have a decent grasp on the pattern change. This is to expected. The common thread between the model runs is that they show Harvey being one big and ugly storm. A key to watch for will be the morning lows (produced by strong shot of Canadian High Pressure). If we continue to see lows in the Midwest on the cool side- watch out in the Southeast, tropical troubles could be near a state near you.

Next Week In Tropics

The next several days in the tropics look relatively quiet. There simply are not significant waves crossing the Atlantic, at this time. Remember that only around 20% of tropical waves actually develop into full-blown tropical systems.  

August 8th- IR Satellite

There are several reasons for the current lax of tropical activity. First off, more negative upward vertical velocities exist, over the Atlantic Basin (Indicated by the brown colors). Until these turn more positive (after Augsust15th), waves will have a hard time forming. Even if they do form, they will face even yet another hostility.

Upward Vertical Velocities

Saharan dust is quite heavy across the Atlantic Ocean. What dust does is squelch thunderstorm activity. This is why waves coming off the coast of Africa have looked better over the desert versus over portions of the Atlantic. Look for the dust to pulse downward during the next several days.

Active Dust Across Atlantic

>>In summary... The Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico will be free from tropical development through August 14th. When the next wave of tropical storms and hurricanes develops look for an increased Caribbean/US threat. Whenever the NAO is positive, these areas typically see increased tropical cyclone activity. The NAO looks to turn positive around August 13th.  

2011-2012 Winter Forecast

Since Accuweather comes out with their winter forecast today, I wanted to be the first the one to share mine with the public. First off, it looks like we will be dealing with the changing of the guard, during this upcoming winter season, from  La Nina to El Nino. All this simply means is that the worse of the winter weather will slip a little bit further south and west than where it was last year. So, here is my first stab at this winter's forecast.

Winter 2011-2012 Forecast

Florida should have a much more moderate winter compared to last year's. Expect above advantage readings in South Florida. North Florida and South Georgia should be around normal,with near normal precipitation. The place not to be in is in the Tennessee and southern Ohio Valleys. This will be the 2011/2012 winter battle zone. It looks like Texas and Louisiana will continue to stay dry. And the Pacific Northwest will be unseasonably warm.  

My forecast is basically a blend between what an El Nino produces and what happens during a La Nina winter. The forecast is certainly based more upon the El Nino philosophy though.