Hurricane Season 2011 Recap

The jury will remain divided on whether the 2011 season was an active one or not. The season produced a total of 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. The 19 tropical storms represent the third-highest total (tied with 1887, 1995, and 2010) since records began in 1851 and is well above the average of 11.

Where the "lack" of  storms occurred was in regards to hurricanes and major hurricanes. Only seven hurricanes formed, and, from the seven, three became major hurricanes. While these numbers are above average, they are not in the ratio form you would expect. If the season were to be in perfect ratio form, one would expect more like 12 hurricanes and 5-6 major hurricanes.    

Northwesterly winds across parts of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic ocean were responsible for shear and drier air. Frontal boundaries aided in some of the past summer's weather setup. Check out the satellite imagery for the entire season below.

Major Cool Down On The Way

A cold frontal boundary will reverse the trend of near record high temperatures. For the majority of the remaining week, temperatures will be at or slightly below average. Average temperatures for this time of year usually climb from a low of 48 to a high of around 70 degrees. Large portions of the eastern third of the nation will face a similar fate. Colder air could prevail so much that isolated pockets of snow could form in the higher elevations, along the East Coast.

Second Significant Cold Front Of Year Barrels Through East.

Precipitation amounts have not been impressive, even though this area of low pressure is a powerful storm system. The stark contrast in temperatures just goes to show the power that this accompanies this storm system. Temperatures have already dropped more than 30 degrees in many areas, including here in North Florida.

30's for lows and 50's for highs across much of the country these next few days.

The cold air will not stay around long because there isn't a significant layer of snow on the ground, yet, in the Continental 48 states. Snow acts as an conveyor belt for cold air. Without it in place, cold air from Canada is not able to stay for long in the lower 48. So, with this particular cool down, expect low and high temperatures to be below average for the next 3 days, followed by more seasonal temperatures. 

Conveyor belt of snow not existent at this point of the season.

Putnam County Fire

An 800 acre wildfire continues to grow in the western portions of Putnam county. The wildfire is burning in swamp lands between Hawthorne and Interlachen. Luckily, smoke has not been problem over the last several weeks, but the situation looks like it is about to change.

Levy Prairie Wildfire Growing in Putnam County

Over the past several weeks, windy conditions mostly from the northeast, have dominated the weather pattern. But with relaxing wind and occasionally a southwesterly breeze, more of us will be smelling and seeing the smoke from this wildfire.

Multiple wildfires have popped up in Northern Florida over the last 2 weeks. And this should not be a surprise to anyone, as we are in a streak of consecutive monthly rainfall deficits. So far, for the year, Jax's official  rainfall deficit is around 4 inches. But this does not tell the whole story. When the rainfall deficit of the past two years is combined, the deficit come out to be around 30 inches of rainfall!

The bad news is that there is not any hope, in the long term forecast, for decent rainfall. November and December will both come in below average in rainfall. And if history tells us anything, the status of La Nina will undoubtedly keep much of Florida dry through the winter and springs months of 2012.

KBDI Drought Status

Thanksgiving Travel Weather

This Thanksgiving's travel weather actually looks seemingly calm with few experiencing major delays and headaches. A storm system will progress through the mid section of the country and provide portions of the Mississippi Valley with a chance of severe thunderstorms. Many areas, in the East, will receive rainfall but when averaged out with the other weather that will be experienced, the end mean will not be too bad.

Areas of Country Ranked by Weekly Weather Conditions:
Southwest: Best
Northeast: Not Bad
Southeast: Average
Northwest: Poor
Midwest: Bad
Central Plains: Awful

Mid-Week Synoptic Scenario

Numerous areas of high pressure will help limit the extent to which this particular, midweek storm system will be able to wind up. Warm temperatures should be plentiful around the main inflow channel but a stark contrast between temperatures will not exist. 

Because the storm will be in its evolving stages and move slowly, heavy rain will accumulate from the Red River Valley to southwest portions of the Ohio Valley. This area of country will likely fall victim to numerous heavy precipitation events as we head into the early winter months.

Estimated Rainfall Amounts Through Thanksgiving

What was the weather like during the first Thanksgiving?

No one really knows the date of the first Thanksgiving. It is thought that it occurred around October 24th, 1621 and lasted for 3 days. Weather conditions were not specifically written down, but we do have some inclinations of the conditions that were experienced some nearly 400 years ago.      

One has to assume that the weather was uneventful and near normal conditions occurred. Major weather events occurred and were recorded during both the early fall season and early winter. A normal New England during this time period would have high temperatures in the lower 60's. And it was likely dry.

Late October 1621: Weather map depicts a stormy West and a rather warm and tranquil East.

It is important to note that the Pilgrims actually landed in New England during the fall of 1620. This year was particularly rough, weather speaking. Seas were rough which actually made the Pilgrims divert to Plymouth Massachusetts. Their first winter was cold and snowy, followed by a rough Spring and early summer. But these harsh conditions, for humans, actually primed the soil and lead to a plentiful fall harvest for North America's first Thanksgiving in 1621.

Fog Could Be A Problem For Upcoming Mornings

A mixture of radiation and advection fog could affect the next several mornings. With the additive ingredient of light winds, sea fog will form over night.

North Florida and South Georgia average around 45 days of significant fog a year. November is characteristically the month with the most fog. This is because of the stark temperature contrasts as one goes up in height. Moisture in the top bed of the soil is another main ingredient for the production of fog.    

October and November Are The Foggiest Months

Fog Definitions:
>Advection fog is created when moist air passes over a cool surface, and the air is cooled. As the air is cooled it reaches its relative humidity saturation point and fog is formed.

>Radiation fog is relatively shallow fog. Radiation fog is also known as ground fog. It is produced near the ground. It is formed by the cooling of land after sunset by thermal (infrared) radiation in calm conditions with a clear sky.  

Jacksonville Fog

Thanksgiving Day Forecast For Jacksonville

 Thanksgiving Day Forecast

High: 72-76
Sky: Partly Cloudy

Notes: No storms or fronts in eastern third of country.

Confidence: HIGH

Average First Frost and Freeze Dates In Jacksonville

First Frost
November is climatologically when most inland sites across the NWS Jacksonville forecast area have their first frosty morning. For frost to form, similar conditions conducive to dew formation are needed, including light low level winds and low level moisture. Frost forms when the temperature at the ground reaches freezing, or 32 °F.  If the dew point temperature (which measures the amount of moisture in the air) also nears freezing, then the moisture in the air near the freezing ground changes from water vapor to solid ice crystals and the ice will deposit itself on objects that had also reach freezing, which includes grass, plants and roof tops. 

Many times frost is observed when measured temperatures are in the mid 30s and not at the freezing mark.  Why is this?  Standard temperature measurements are made generally between 4 and 6 feet above ground level.  The coldest air is the densest, which means that it will lingering at ground level. The actual temperatures will sometimes be many degrees below the observed temperature, which is usually measured many feet about ground level. This is why sometimes observed temperatures are warmer than freezing, despite a widespread frost indicating freezing temperatures at ground level. 

The NWS Jacksonville will issue a Frost Advisory for northeast Florida when widespread frost is expected (and a freeze warning is not in effect).  For southeast Georgia, a frost advisory will be issued until the first hard freeze event is experienced, then frost advisories will resume, if necessary, after March 1st. Below is a map of the average date of the first frost (based on temperatures of 36 ° F or lower) across the NWS Jacksonville forecast area. 

First Average Frost On First Coast

First Freeze

NWS Jacksonville will issue a Freeze Warnings when forecast temperatures are expected to remain below 32 ° F for 2 or more hours.  Freeze warnings will continue to be issued throughout the cool season as needed for northeast Florida. Freeze warnings will not be issued for southeast Georgia after the first widespread hard freeze of the season (temperatures 27 ° F or less). Freeze warnings will resume for southeast Georgia as needed after March 1st. 

Hard Freeze Warnings will be issued as needed for the entire forecast area when minimum temperatures are expected to fall at or below 27 ° F for 2 or more hours. Freeze Watches will be issued typically within 24 to 36 hours of a forecast freeze event. Below is a map of the average date of the first freeze across the NWS Jacksonville forecast area.

Average First Freeze

Peanut Crop Hit Hard By Weather Extremes

Temperatures might be in the acceptable range, but precipitation has been lacking over the South for a highly successful peanut season. The main growing belt extends from Texas to Virginia. At the height of a kernel's growth, 2 inches of rainfall a weak is necessary. Many of the popular peanut growing areas have not seen beneficial rainfall for months and catastrophic drought conditions exist.   

Peanut Crop Growth Areas

Because of the poor growing and producing conditions, prices of peanuts and all the many products made from peanuts have started to increase in price. And this increase is not likely to abide anytime soon. Drought conditions will continue to plague the critical peanut growing regions until the year, at least, 2013.

Dust Bowl- late 1920's