Fire Danger Soars

High to extreme fire danger, across the entire State.

The state of the drought is about to turn ugly across a good portion of the Southeast, including Florida. Since December 1st around 1.5 inches of rain has fallen around the region. And since January 1st, only sprinkles have been recorded in the official rain gauge. The drought isn't a new topic; it has really been in the formation process for years. The years 2010 and 2011 produced a combined rainfall deficit of around 27 inches.

Precipitation over last 100 years for North Florida.

La Ninas and global weather pattern changes are mostly responsible, for the drier conditions. Over the past 100 years, there has been a gradual decline in precipitation observed. And the news continues to get worse- there are no changes to the forecast ahead. Drier than normal conditions look like they will dominate the next two weeks. January typically sees 3.69 inches of rain. So far, we are at zero inches of precip. for the month.

5 day precipitation forecast

Many areas of the State could finish the remaining 2 weeks, of the month, without any significant rainfall.  An amplified to zonal pattern will hold on for much if this time period. This type of pattern will tend to bring in warmer air, but it will also keep the majority of major systems, to the north.

Current Jet Stream Pattern

Several Warm Days Ahead

Climatologically speaking, the area is entering what is usually the coldest week of winter. Typically the area struggles to reach the mid 60s, for our high, and plummets into the lower 40s, for the low. The week were are just now entering will be anything but typical.

For the majority of this week, temperatures will be some 10-15 degrees above average in many areas.  A lack of snow cover across the Continental 48 and the combination of a high pressure system, to our east-northeast, are responsible for the warm conditions. Temperatures could approach 80 degrees both on Monday and Tuesday.

High pressure helps pump southeasterly flow into Florida.

Only about 13% of the U.S. 48 has snow on the ground. This figure should be
between double or triple of where it is right now.

By the end of the week, a change in the warm/dry pattern could be in the making. But the verdict is still out on whether a temporary change or something more consequential. A good place to start looking for definitive answers is in the eastern Pacific. This is where water temperatures have been warming over the last couple of weeks. This warming could indicate that La Nina's control over the weather pattern could be lessening.