tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-244390252024-03-18T03:37:34.590-04:00North Florida Weather BlogBlog on North Florida's Ever-Changing Weather. Remember To Bookmark.Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.comBlogger540125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-11886146315176510522021-10-09T01:48:00.000-04:002021-10-09T01:48:38.748-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #20: Brief development off SE, Watching Caribbean<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8Mb8K26ZjASwPKJ9jF7xkNk1j0OcCU-Oduxz_t6yE6RRXQT98rfVJShXY3n7IFyCo691sOwqZm9t5PLxa4MRgMO4hQsIPN37p2pNCTnFLPw6JtCN2_ev3k6Z_H1N3sLMWc1qw/s900/rai.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="900" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8Mb8K26ZjASwPKJ9jF7xkNk1j0OcCU-Oduxz_t6yE6RRXQT98rfVJShXY3n7IFyCo691sOwqZm9t5PLxa4MRgMO4hQsIPN37p2pNCTnFLPw6JtCN2_ev3k6Z_H1N3sLMWc1qw/w400-h295/rai.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br />The end of the tropical season is in sight, but we’ll likely see a couple of more developments before November 30. The area with the best chance of development is off the coast of North Carolina.<p></p><p>A tropical disturbance has lingered off the Southeast coast for several days. Upper level winds have really hindered development, but there’ll be a brief time period for development over the weekend. If it does develop, the system will likely remain a weak tropical storm before another front starts impacting the cyclone.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnCAiuVNEVelPPs3f0_QE3AmwoBATkO0U95TJc3hnFQs1ZO-_bm_w8SbKPTFwv81jWbIoWz00kAEKxnr6VS8snD7RxhvLz2morbVLcWO9D8Lonm2tY_MaIqyzNI5L5RPiuAzSg/s1228/1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="875" data-original-width="1228" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnCAiuVNEVelPPs3f0_QE3AmwoBATkO0U95TJc3hnFQs1ZO-_bm_w8SbKPTFwv81jWbIoWz00kAEKxnr6VS8snD7RxhvLz2morbVLcWO9D8Lonm2tY_MaIqyzNI5L5RPiuAzSg/w400-h285/1.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><p>What’s notable with disturbance 92L off the coast of North Carolina is that if it develops, it’ll use the final name on the season’s designated list. The final name of the 2021 season is Wanda. Once the “W” name is used, the basin will proceed to a supplemental list, which will start over with the letter “A”.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiszSAcUotIrIxL9JfUJgm25z4aHr7VIgU9muUNK6r3oXpF6CBvZZ5uEDdqSJNsGNF5CIwj2ba-CXz8QH3TwmWpsMw-UPyE3jAkUSU8oW6oifKWjelgAryzWLlFZ08xdNl3aGpJ/s993/figure-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="705" data-original-width="993" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiszSAcUotIrIxL9JfUJgm25z4aHr7VIgU9muUNK6r3oXpF6CBvZZ5uEDdqSJNsGNF5CIwj2ba-CXz8QH3TwmWpsMw-UPyE3jAkUSU8oW6oifKWjelgAryzWLlFZ08xdNl3aGpJ/w400-h284/figure-1.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3fCnF1Rkbevl09U_ly3oB0Q0evDzOGvyBVqPg4_wlxlz-bLJGwa8z1ZXgdrMthzUnk_naBgxHdNjHc2fcKg8_KmS7YKXvqhZXEirG4RTwGhMVCSJN2SDAui0_wIb-QHOGLt__/s1033/A.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="719" data-original-width="1033" height="279" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3fCnF1Rkbevl09U_ly3oB0Q0evDzOGvyBVqPg4_wlxlz-bLJGwa8z1ZXgdrMthzUnk_naBgxHdNjHc2fcKg8_KmS7YKXvqhZXEirG4RTwGhMVCSJN2SDAui0_wIb-QHOGLt__/w400-h279/A.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, we’ll continue to watch the Caribbean Sea. It’s usually a favorited area for development this time of year, and all signs point to disturbance that’ll need to be watched late in the week. Water temperatures remain warm, and shear will be conducive enough for development. Usually during MJO phases 8,1,2 and 3 the Atlantic basin seas an uptick in development. We're currently in phase 5 but will reach one of the more active phases next week.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQVxZY-N7OQdXHe7J_kfP3cPQrnI2uWe0eoio5rjQO7Pomg25f5AKsgaCpID3F6ZRpdMwDUvPtRj5YwQSRFlh2aD7nJbs_djpmE5JkhNpY3_k91E13Cs-AZY-F3AvL-uijVdq0/s647/three.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="647" data-original-width="613" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQVxZY-N7OQdXHe7J_kfP3cPQrnI2uWe0eoio5rjQO7Pomg25f5AKsgaCpID3F6ZRpdMwDUvPtRj5YwQSRFlh2aD7nJbs_djpmE5JkhNpY3_k91E13Cs-AZY-F3AvL-uijVdq0/w379-h400/three.png" width="379" /></a></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-15107602582575344222021-10-03T19:44:00.003-04:002021-10-03T19:44:34.964-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #19: Sam Exists, Watching Caribbean<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjesPePF0zyAqoSnl9S2StPLubwxzqsYTOJycNrSk-RtDnQ-xLHgS-P-Bjq4wv8hvehaKbdoYyR_pj7-HOI1eeaiOSVGcvsLe1bm6AiRbNYaYhSWqdpxYAV20oVf8YB1oyXf2wO/s900/2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="900" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjesPePF0zyAqoSnl9S2StPLubwxzqsYTOJycNrSk-RtDnQ-xLHgS-P-Bjq4wv8hvehaKbdoYyR_pj7-HOI1eeaiOSVGcvsLe1bm6AiRbNYaYhSWqdpxYAV20oVf8YB1oyXf2wO/w400-h295/2.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><span style="color: #212121; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br />Over the next week in the tropics, Hurricane Sam will
transition into an extratropical storm over the North Atlantic. Sam has been
around for a long time, in fact, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring
the system on September 19. During its time in the Atlantic it reached category
4 status and became the strongest cyclone of the season in the Atlantic basin.</span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqJNhe6A_1JnSgL1anb1Vvrtc-egMSWiui1lEu11Oy0jVZdJ5m7BQ8kZpE2NZ51Dhv02T452qTdYreTevllIenZSnnIzjHOiYpetbvVbFBwmowl-zNF7G0jCwVPkupIv0SYdzg/s618/four.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="618" data-original-width="563" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqJNhe6A_1JnSgL1anb1Vvrtc-egMSWiui1lEu11Oy0jVZdJ5m7BQ8kZpE2NZ51Dhv02T452qTdYreTevllIenZSnnIzjHOiYpetbvVbFBwmowl-zNF7G0jCwVPkupIv0SYdzg/w365-h400/four.png" width="365" /></a></div><p></p><span style="color: #212121; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">
Elsewhere in the basin, our attention will turn to the Caribbean Sea, where all
indications point towards the next significant cyclone forming. While there is
nothing to immediately track, conditions during the week of October 11<sup>th</sup>,
will turn more favorable for tropical cyclone formation.</span><div><span style="color: #212121; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHq0-rJ6Ngt8YdZAmz8tZxQlblEZDJtRb9cgFYAJ9L2XiJrd9aFOAd3GtlerCbeBUwIs2hZdXDypksepDUFW8ikyUeaeHzGHxkzKmDfu4dWjRyV6UOjbIt6EAOJxKYG6EZ73hS/s449/nhc3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="347" data-original-width="449" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHq0-rJ6Ngt8YdZAmz8tZxQlblEZDJtRb9cgFYAJ9L2XiJrd9aFOAd3GtlerCbeBUwIs2hZdXDypksepDUFW8ikyUeaeHzGHxkzKmDfu4dWjRyV6UOjbIt6EAOJxKYG6EZ73hS/w400-h309/nhc3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span style="color: #212121; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"><br />
<br />
Climatologically, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are hotbeds for tropical
activity. Dozens of tropical storms and hurricanes have impacted Florida during
the months of October and December.</span></div><div><span style="color: #212121; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNoyZ99eLKPyhbPYZ8rTLHzJoIkJ4MH7JhW89yI8A65eA_tsGiGD62t0hTftX__ScNZ1EqethevQMAMl-mFRISsT7PITzZNCmD1njf-XqcA0G3MHFdRVVNvzn4GexTz9IfEvAl/s994/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="994" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNoyZ99eLKPyhbPYZ8rTLHzJoIkJ4MH7JhW89yI8A65eA_tsGiGD62t0hTftX__ScNZ1EqethevQMAMl-mFRISsT7PITzZNCmD1njf-XqcA0G3MHFdRVVNvzn4GexTz9IfEvAl/w640-h354/Capture.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><span style="color: #212121; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"><br />
<br />
The next and last name on 2021 Atlantic basin list is Wanda. Once Wanda forms,
the season will have had 21 named storms form. After Wanda, we’ll start on a
new auxiliary list of storm names. Other than a brief spin-up in the Atlantic, no tropical cyclone activity is anticipated this week.</span></div><div><span style="color: #212121; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpvrlfoacJYSvhq1JgIItdn5WXi39a3__mUXemSPaa8_MXL7BOKa2VTg-ZZefqyjU2e39L-gCdycfFB3iZSBfowykM-6HXuCSc7zLvqXv3OuXzzoNuTPBMZn_BGNBKfz3cAWC5/s1033/A.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="719" data-original-width="1033" height="279" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpvrlfoacJYSvhq1JgIItdn5WXi39a3__mUXemSPaa8_MXL7BOKa2VTg-ZZefqyjU2e39L-gCdycfFB3iZSBfowykM-6HXuCSc7zLvqXv3OuXzzoNuTPBMZn_BGNBKfz3cAWC5/w400-h279/A.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="color: #212121; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-61437790129868085932021-09-26T04:05:00.002-04:002021-09-26T04:05:09.617-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #18: Watching Hurricane Sam<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqTXw6TD4uvDhyphenhyphenC-GUp9xl4aIlA9gKsTp1OpwMZJZo633upDtObIdv2U9ESIiq-d-cV5lv6tudTDalj195JPqMbz62fb3A5tIhDdi0Bh6jnwid00c7RYlxbmOlmPiVhFINgIwz/s1200/1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="1200" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqTXw6TD4uvDhyphenhyphenC-GUp9xl4aIlA9gKsTp1OpwMZJZo633upDtObIdv2U9ESIiq-d-cV5lv6tudTDalj195JPqMbz62fb3A5tIhDdi0Bh6jnwid00c7RYlxbmOlmPiVhFINgIwz/w400-h203/1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p>The big story over the next week in the tropics will be Hurricane Sam, which will come close to the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. Sam is the seventh hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin this year. It formed form a disturbance that exited the coast of Africa. The cyclone will stay a major hurricane for several days. </p><p>There are several troughs moving across the country that will help provide a barrier for between the U.S. East Coast and the cyclone. The trough should produce enough of a pull that Sam will move away from the Lesser Antilles and towards Bermuda.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgqCADD-nSWxzRyESy4JWOhZ-ambt5WDfVbxf8oDZZ0wt49pxIOIowsWQ7bXSABkcxaqPJamr0Ug-Cp9jqq1hsedGsvDroM2s_HXcZDmnOdD4pSNiS2K8RZpE_fR9gN-LsjJ7x/s900/nhc2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="900" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgqCADD-nSWxzRyESy4JWOhZ-ambt5WDfVbxf8oDZZ0wt49pxIOIowsWQ7bXSABkcxaqPJamr0Ug-Cp9jqq1hsedGsvDroM2s_HXcZDmnOdD4pSNiS2K8RZpE_fR9gN-LsjJ7x/w400-h295/nhc2.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p>Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Subtropical Storm Teresa recently formed off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic. The system didn’t survive for long and its remnants will continue into the North Atlantic. There are two are to keep an eye on over the next few weeks. One area will be off the coast of Africa. The good news is that anything that develops will likely recurve out to see.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghf9bTTIlzsnGw94QlhrFXP7rsINAs7jrnAXfnuxKkwFwcVAn48exPSPJarULpAC3cgIOelaktuIPcZAZHbYqY-iHLSmSclQoYkHk7tdYdKO6mzMz_kXvshyphenhypheniPA77iQuIFCWoM/s605/front.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="605" data-original-width="584" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghf9bTTIlzsnGw94QlhrFXP7rsINAs7jrnAXfnuxKkwFwcVAn48exPSPJarULpAC3cgIOelaktuIPcZAZHbYqY-iHLSmSclQoYkHk7tdYdKO6mzMz_kXvshyphenhypheniPA77iQuIFCWoM/w386-h400/front.PNG" width="386" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrvPJ0LdMEdDYix4JCb_IGhvWQyYxeE09Yq2rT5KQUYdbIrSr_H7BM5Twk31_Q8T7zbYlyZpk8K5bKxftqyxNGUrTzZ2-62Ydgzk-ykg-xexKZUXrlUCTEVj2wuDYCMvpf5x8r/s586/WED.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="586" data-original-width="509" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrvPJ0LdMEdDYix4JCb_IGhvWQyYxeE09Yq2rT5KQUYdbIrSr_H7BM5Twk31_Q8T7zbYlyZpk8K5bKxftqyxNGUrTzZ2-62Ydgzk-ykg-xexKZUXrlUCTEVj2wuDYCMvpf5x8r/w556-h640/WED.PNG" width="556" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p>A second area to monitor will eventually develop in the Caribbean Sea. It’s always important to closely monitor systems in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico because cyclone is always guaranteed to strike land, thanks to the bodies of water being nearly landlocked. Anything that does develop will likely wait until the second week in October to fully develop.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheMuULev2B0tj_ZBIaGxyssqlh503JwhxwiLw-gNEFN2lngkFCFqwNX_fU2h5O6s_v5o097JWNaYkH79FKAXvgvmoVdDtvn4WQROEkyHbiNYwftUTTm92pbMzp7-lKGt2n30BP/s954/A.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="702" data-original-width="954" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheMuULev2B0tj_ZBIaGxyssqlh503JwhxwiLw-gNEFN2lngkFCFqwNX_fU2h5O6s_v5o097JWNaYkH79FKAXvgvmoVdDtvn4WQROEkyHbiNYwftUTTm92pbMzp7-lKGt2n30BP/w400-h294/A.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-55443741358809035882021-09-19T00:25:00.000-04:002021-09-19T00:25:01.058-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #17: Atlantic disturbances<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwzA3xpftD4erDZU0ge6IjM_R69KCHWBzZEjG5itr2wJJUrjTMF-XFzkt3Xl1VyTMQlHdku-8HnFTm848lfn4eo5O92bDE9RYoMTA7OQt5eBmFvh0FoOq86osH0EtXuhL9O4zB/s900/two_atl_5d0.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="900" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwzA3xpftD4erDZU0ge6IjM_R69KCHWBzZEjG5itr2wJJUrjTMF-XFzkt3Xl1VyTMQlHdku-8HnFTm848lfn4eo5O92bDE9RYoMTA7OQt5eBmFvh0FoOq86osH0EtXuhL9O4zB/w400-h295/two_atl_5d0.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p>For the 17<sup>th</sup> week of the tropical season, we’ll be
monitoring 2 to 3 disturbances in the central and far eastern Atlantic. None
pose a significant threat to land. At this point, neither is expected to undergo
any type of rapid strengthening because of the state of the atmosphere.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7zFG23JtVBfDPHJYq929d5E2msZ7hVg9HnoYaIsEmwpWt4VbapO83ATM0G66AoI3hw50FrGgNqieEtQxUApN2mgn4aEZew-f_TRlP3YtPTwptMvAKLd90P9Jv0-nDAsTb7FUm/s1120/ONE.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="779" data-original-width="1120" height="279" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7zFG23JtVBfDPHJYq929d5E2msZ7hVg9HnoYaIsEmwpWt4VbapO83ATM0G66AoI3hw50FrGgNqieEtQxUApN2mgn4aEZew-f_TRlP3YtPTwptMvAKLd90P9Jv0-nDAsTb7FUm/w400-h279/ONE.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>The Atlantic basin has generally been hostile for tropical development over the
last couple of weeks. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) isn’t in a phase that
promotes growth of thunderstorms, across the Atlantic basin. In order for
thunderstorms complexes to flourish, you really need to be in phases 8, 1, 2 or
3. The Atlantic is heading towards more active phases as we head to October.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYmBXOr_LF0rf2OuXdOEudhUgu9zlfS4fAuw7GVIV1RO0N61EAPOq8TAs9PH6Hg0rLzGhLfCpPBg07XOzSLAf9BjI4-yp-Wydor-RN_oDdzky2Xem5zPgDjaD-huMAAW1B_p_9/s618/gfs.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="618" data-original-width="549" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYmBXOr_LF0rf2OuXdOEudhUgu9zlfS4fAuw7GVIV1RO0N61EAPOq8TAs9PH6Hg0rLzGhLfCpPBg07XOzSLAf9BjI4-yp-Wydor-RN_oDdzky2Xem5zPgDjaD-huMAAW1B_p_9/w355-h400/gfs.png" width="355" /></a></div><br /><p>For at least the next 7 days, there are no tropical threats
to Florida. TD 16/Peter will be the closest feature to Florida, but at this
point the only impact will be an increase in rip currents. There should be enough troughiness off the Eastern Seaboard to allow whatever becomes of TD 16/Peter to the north and the northeast, away from the U.S.</p><p class="MsoNormal">
The Atlantic basin has already seen more named storms than an entire average
season does. With a busy October expected, its likely we’ll see several more
named systems for the season ends at the end of November.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZenLlmLQ08XLwefTQ9SPqyhyOMGqPSkJtt4V0eW7j3RhSs3SwZvN_IzZV_TkZYWdymPkAxvF2MSyUmh1Qpoa0izEbj67sLxhxw4WWGaWm4X527J0zd36y4b17VLcSuDAUMR08/s1209/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="735" data-original-width="1209" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZenLlmLQ08XLwefTQ9SPqyhyOMGqPSkJtt4V0eW7j3RhSs3SwZvN_IzZV_TkZYWdymPkAxvF2MSyUmh1Qpoa0izEbj67sLxhxw4WWGaWm4X527J0zd36y4b17VLcSuDAUMR08/w400-h244/Capture.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-79643697483312438092021-09-12T03:57:00.001-04:002021-09-12T03:57:33.670-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #16: Plenty to Monitor<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAlhD5GyHad7DFRN24Df3sckR6DgueOIGWdlTieAZ016NPl9-YCHNoTtRYpp-rmNfe99FZM7jwX3epXjoL0qT8a0LueQuSZRdWKTDk9VaxPFKsNXWTNWtnMKzSw62IBwLLio-D/s900/two_atl_5d0.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="900" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAlhD5GyHad7DFRN24Df3sckR6DgueOIGWdlTieAZ016NPl9-YCHNoTtRYpp-rmNfe99FZM7jwX3epXjoL0qT8a0LueQuSZRdWKTDk9VaxPFKsNXWTNWtnMKzSw62IBwLLio-D/w400-h295/two_atl_5d0.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There is plenty to monitor
across the Atlantic basin as the active 2021 hurricane season continues. There
is a disturbance in the Gulf that will impact Texas and Louisiana. And there
are several systems in the Atlantic that’ll need to be monitored for development.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2kovAHDBiowl9nkM8ITMrRs4LTznEZMIxaJ96X8FhsNguXrL4wmALso5dQF-aG_aYRS2WfbBtV3vszMEhhwgh-CbpYWubqgevaBBVgkuOAxDJlRGVao8xOOdgMpf8xaC1v24Y/s616/Capture1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="616" data-original-width="559" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2kovAHDBiowl9nkM8ITMrRs4LTznEZMIxaJ96X8FhsNguXrL4wmALso5dQF-aG_aYRS2WfbBtV3vszMEhhwgh-CbpYWubqgevaBBVgkuOAxDJlRGVao8xOOdgMpf8xaC1v24Y/w363-h400/Capture1.PNG" width="363" /></a></div><span style="font-family: arial;">One of the reasons there is plenty to monitor and little to track is because
the Atlantic isn’t in the MJO (</span><span style="background: white; font-family: arial;">Madden-Julian Oscillation) </span><span style="font-family: arial;">phases that usually lead to hyperactive
activity. That being said, development of tropical cyclones can still happen,
so we’ll be on the lookout for Nicholas and Odette.</span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXQRV5xyWnm1WfpyH7naEKnxkeZZc4S1mWVP-JzhJU2Fr5avPajEDbtfIUbPMxiUmV076LZZOUwUfRljpPw_7XelfE56OliOi6Lh5QQ4XWRWoc-P0_zJESDbVyhBNF2ahRn8vC/s1200/56923f88-166c-4dd4-8a8e-fa5d8d6fb13e.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="1200" height="325" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXQRV5xyWnm1WfpyH7naEKnxkeZZc4S1mWVP-JzhJU2Fr5avPajEDbtfIUbPMxiUmV076LZZOUwUfRljpPw_7XelfE56OliOi6Lh5QQ4XWRWoc-P0_zJESDbVyhBNF2ahRn8vC/w640-h325/56923f88-166c-4dd4-8a8e-fa5d8d6fb13e.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />The disturbance in the Gulf will be known as a rain maker, even if it doesn’t
develop. Most of the rain will be centered over Texas and Louisiana. In the
Atlantic basin, there are several areas to monitor but none are threats to the
First Coast. What could be the most impressive disturbance and one to watch
will emerge off the coast of Africa early in the week.</span><p></p><div><span style="line-height: 107%;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbu91QSdBlys3YINbNzESxsONbEsHKO_PSAYcz3FGkw7OfmpuorbWlosk2V-ZyPGzowiTiqyHocxCKAE7r4J4hWcqOh1O1y-bplIJwTlrFCtXXbUclK5ehyGzbGfqmE7r33UT3/s1024/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1024" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbu91QSdBlys3YINbNzESxsONbEsHKO_PSAYcz3FGkw7OfmpuorbWlosk2V-ZyPGzowiTiqyHocxCKAE7r4J4hWcqOh1O1y-bplIJwTlrFCtXXbUclK5ehyGzbGfqmE7r33UT3/w400-h283/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_3.png" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: arial;">
<br />
The disturbance that’ll be exiting off the coast of Africa will be at low
enough latitude that it should be isolated from dry air and shear. This should
allow the disturbance into a tropical cyclone as it generally marches westward.
Because of its lower latitude, it’ll likely be a concern for the northern
Caribbean islands.</span></span><div><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="line-height: 107%;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiosIQ_nt5_B9fhhPpTg6eD7etZp4EgeIJ5RjrpCTFg1691oxMzBfBYY7kxUU5oRR2mYruUZxuGmu5rJbVmXXRmSGD4nw3JTYt2gVj5SBAjxBNGpKB3MmP22urNpU6wrCYCCKwA/s969/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="694" data-original-width="969" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiosIQ_nt5_B9fhhPpTg6eD7etZp4EgeIJ5RjrpCTFg1691oxMzBfBYY7kxUU5oRR2mYruUZxuGmu5rJbVmXXRmSGD4nw3JTYt2gVj5SBAjxBNGpKB3MmP22urNpU6wrCYCCKwA/w400-h286/Capture.PNG" width="400" /></a></div></span></div></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-35320284204298195672021-09-08T02:26:00.003-04:002021-09-08T02:26:25.088-04:00Winter 2021 – 2022 Outlook<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5QWO5Fz4Gva2pY1aiQdqhLvKPNpj5JHOx0gUzwCWG1zo4Em-P_BN4tZIpHtlUBm7luw5CdQyTwBZ0hIFCAi8IyENYdmA_oDc3Vu76ClOCnrm8RHevJRkYbKOYhmfhYrEqXNTZ/s1024/cfs-mon_01_T850a_us_4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="700" data-original-width="1024" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5QWO5Fz4Gva2pY1aiQdqhLvKPNpj5JHOx0gUzwCWG1zo4Em-P_BN4tZIpHtlUBm7luw5CdQyTwBZ0hIFCAi8IyENYdmA_oDc3Vu76ClOCnrm8RHevJRkYbKOYhmfhYrEqXNTZ/w400-h274/cfs-mon_01_T850a_us_4.png" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />Winter will officially begin on December 21, but before the season
actually gets here, we already have some clues on how the winter months will
play out. Last winter was certainly a memorable one with several freezes and cold
fronts that were able to make it through the region. It is usually difficult to
get similar winter patterns back-to-back, in a row, and it looks like climatology
will again win out this time around.</span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLx4dCnoPiRaeUqY3D9cyisM_bKiGoDSFSWNEsxfXCmqMU7sxupuBuQkovqAGbIw1XkZ5YDi9LjRi6Z258W6WfWPKax5-YzIXTBcLL-UcWPmMIYzhtrV-luu7pjfAVshx_ZxpW/s1100/figure4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1100" height="291" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLx4dCnoPiRaeUqY3D9cyisM_bKiGoDSFSWNEsxfXCmqMU7sxupuBuQkovqAGbIw1XkZ5YDi9LjRi6Z258W6WfWPKax5-YzIXTBcLL-UcWPmMIYzhtrV-luu7pjfAVshx_ZxpW/w400-h291/figure4.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">The 2021 – 2022 winter season should be overall drier and warmer than average
for Northeast Florida as La Nina’s influence will continue into the new year. Last
winter <span style="background: white;">a massive ridge was dominant
over eastern Canada and Greenland while the northern Pacific saw
heights below normal. This allowed several cold fronts to push into Northeast
Florida, with cold air.</span> This year heights in the northeast Pacific look
to be higher and instead of a ridge over Canada & Greenland, troughs will
exist. This likely will prevent significant periods of cold air from making it
into Northeast Florida. There will be cold days and there will be freezes;
however the more moderate air will make the winter more bearable.</span></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOtG19DGr6kgF4dJFY4gBcXA2hZGsIZWP-qt9vBE0DiTHIeMh5AVckf7YJvNrLPQdUsvPk6XtWvzoXzGlLxc2oGifCal06st-yQfod1nHZJ4jKEBze4AxFNTlLv5jzUSseU2ND/s841/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="841" height="389" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOtG19DGr6kgF4dJFY4gBcXA2hZGsIZWP-qt9vBE0DiTHIeMh5AVckf7YJvNrLPQdUsvPk6XtWvzoXzGlLxc2oGifCal06st-yQfod1nHZJ4jKEBze4AxFNTlLv5jzUSseU2ND/w400-h389/Capture.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;">
Normally the area sees around 9 inches of rain during the months of December,
January and February. It looks like the main storm track will line up for parts
of the Midwest and the Plains to see quite the snow season but by the time the
fronts enter Northeast Florida, the systems will be mostly dry. This season’s
pattern will also not allow for many significant nor’easters to set up. The
area can get several inches of rain during a nor’easter event but without these events, the area will come up short in the precipitation </span>gauge.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpAhWRulOPBKOKDXQLQs8lGKgC4tAhigh4wZQ3YU3fwddFz3ZPcfkKOjj0kA775_xizchPDut04WN1OspEkcq6XFVxcC-XP9B_khuW-T9Z_CkyqLJtUCkLy4iSBCGEMizQCKaf/s845/capture2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="821" data-original-width="845" height="389" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpAhWRulOPBKOKDXQLQs8lGKgC4tAhigh4wZQ3YU3fwddFz3ZPcfkKOjj0kA775_xizchPDut04WN1OspEkcq6XFVxcC-XP9B_khuW-T9Z_CkyqLJtUCkLy4iSBCGEMizQCKaf/w400-h389/capture2.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;">An average winter day in Northeast Florida sees temperatures start out in the
40s, and highs will usually reach mid to upper 60s. These normals will likely
hold true this year. Because of the lack of reinforcing shots of cold air, its
likely temperatures will reach the 70s several times. We will see freezes this season
but it doesn’t like we’ll come anywhere close the average of 15 days that
usually report temperatures reaching 32 degrees.</span></div><div><br />
<!--[endif]--><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL0xGrGxOSZTkULqr5R6POGwBUIlvFeReS7dYIM0N05_JMJ_UOujRF6bzZ1Ka1PNib7BgJyrTIuXre0_pJNkScwlGaMPjz80uKwVFjW3eO6SDfGPh-rMRhoOaG6jWxeHhKvexV/s1264/WINTER1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="695" data-original-width="1264" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL0xGrGxOSZTkULqr5R6POGwBUIlvFeReS7dYIM0N05_JMJ_UOujRF6bzZ1Ka1PNib7BgJyrTIuXre0_pJNkScwlGaMPjz80uKwVFjW3eO6SDfGPh-rMRhoOaG6jWxeHhKvexV/w640-h352/WINTER1.PNG" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><br /></div></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-11364910246268774522021-09-05T00:11:00.002-04:002021-09-05T00:11:28.952-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #15: Peak of the Season<p><span style="font-size: 11pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5Ddmb1rYM59milajUfjwVRSqpdwD3C4SQEHjBjlEZrCUN1oeMt8KvBDvt9QeNGuMGwDGVlVXgUN3_gDY9eAdCxcMPxGFHTCoWBi2fd8gsQ5VUI8svGX4RK46iQv17IjsOvoVN/s1920/2021_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1188" data-original-width="1920" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5Ddmb1rYM59milajUfjwVRSqpdwD3C4SQEHjBjlEZrCUN1oeMt8KvBDvt9QeNGuMGwDGVlVXgUN3_gDY9eAdCxcMPxGFHTCoWBi2fd8gsQ5VUI8svGX4RK46iQv17IjsOvoVN/w400-h248/2021_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Atlantic basin has reached the climatological peak of the hurricane
season. And believe it or not, there are no immediate tropical threats to the
First Coast. </span><span style="font-size: 14.6667px;">Hurricane Larry will move into the North Atlantic, after becoming the season’s third major hurricane. Besides Larry, we’re also monitoring an area of disturbed weather known as invest 91L. The disturbance has been around for a week but the combination of land interaction and shear has kept has kept the system disorganized. It’ll continue to meander in the Gulf of Mexico and could enhance rainfall along the Gulf coast.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 11pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWCfkb6_SQ3iYGC7e4-aDUxtvAjPIzcuZMckDqOyLTAtFtjMjTJcXW1lFiAB9GwRk_cApr14PYEBEJCktTQRg4DkykpLWHC3d0LC37DY4fJT4EkTp7gAqbNgLQ_lvriCI9iNB_/s998/2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="708" data-original-width="998" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWCfkb6_SQ3iYGC7e4-aDUxtvAjPIzcuZMckDqOyLTAtFtjMjTJcXW1lFiAB9GwRk_cApr14PYEBEJCktTQRg4DkykpLWHC3d0LC37DY4fJT4EkTp7gAqbNgLQ_lvriCI9iNB_/w400-h284/2.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br />By the end of the week, we'll also start monitoring 2 additional areas for tropical cyclone development. One will be in the Northwest Caribbean Sea and the other will be off the coast of Africa. The area in the NW Caribbean Sea will be most concerning because of the direct threat to land and the potential for a significant cyclone to develop. The system off the coast of Africa will have a long way to go, if it ever develops or threatens land.<p></p><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span>
<br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">
So, why the temporary break in tropical activity? It all comes down to the
stage the atmosphere is in. Right now, the indexes aren’t align to see wide-ranging
activity. This looks like it’ll start to change during the week of September 13</span></span><sup style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt;">th</sup><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">.
The MJO (</span></span><span style="background: white;"><span style="color: #202124; font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Madden-Julian
Oscillation) will start to head into the phases that usually lead to an uptick
in activity. At the same time, we'll be tracking an uptick in moisture that'll reach Gulf of Mexico and the </span></span><span style="color: #202124;"><span style="font-size: 14.6667px;">Caribbean later in September. This will aide in the conducive conditions the tropical cyclones will find.</span></span><br /></span></span></span><div><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background: white; color: #202124;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR5PHBJx9PytkF2Ejcob9TSRaCEEWPpBmf0Em1a1mlmANvFjvdi-yE26cgquqIflt085kqxw4LvQLD-vnTc5YZnp4dI5o0hrX6xG1KknmTkP5A0LHN9Mi9vh8NWXLGqtGenmAy/s471/Capture2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="471" data-original-width="443" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR5PHBJx9PytkF2Ejcob9TSRaCEEWPpBmf0Em1a1mlmANvFjvdi-yE26cgquqIflt085kqxw4LvQLD-vnTc5YZnp4dI5o0hrX6xG1KknmTkP5A0LHN9Mi9vh8NWXLGqtGenmAy/w376-h400/Capture2.PNG" width="376" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJwxR-cq-3Sr56GNqzfmFrq-_R3nkBdur2yDRjBvLJatM-WhwwTBbE2X55TAZiAXHZga9EZ_Ab4jClw-cer6ow67Icu0xSr5nJftMY8SoEixiA7xOtfvDNQgaVMIGaEdBaYOFM/s805/tw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="674" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJwxR-cq-3Sr56GNqzfmFrq-_R3nkBdur2yDRjBvLJatM-WhwwTBbE2X55TAZiAXHZga9EZ_Ab4jClw-cer6ow67Icu0xSr5nJftMY8SoEixiA7xOtfvDNQgaVMIGaEdBaYOFM/w335-h400/tw.png" width="335" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="background: white; color: #202124;"><br />
This uptick in activity will likely last into early October. We have already
seen the amount of cyclones seen during an average year. Additional developments
in the Atlantic basin will only add to what has already been a busy year. Water temperatures are still plenty warm to support tropical development. 2021
has seen 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 3 majors, with winds of at least 115
mph. The season runs through the end of November.</span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background: white; color: #202124;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLempPyIwqYvEXZquxLi2nxpDOLq5URFpfZxiqfG8XzLJSDUY07GHn4awC5mlF47BjPbk8dNqoH0MB9jG6SIoA2DtaLtsOJFPoc9Y3Q0wGbK0Xwe29UPRyzx51vMR2EMeIj1f0/s1255/two_atl_5d0.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="691" data-original-width="1255" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLempPyIwqYvEXZquxLi2nxpDOLq5URFpfZxiqfG8XzLJSDUY07GHn4awC5mlF47BjPbk8dNqoH0MB9jG6SIoA2DtaLtsOJFPoc9Y3Q0wGbK0Xwe29UPRyzx51vMR2EMeIj1f0/w640-h352/two_atl_5d0.png" width="640" /></a></div></span></span></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-46735732459092469482021-09-01T01:12:00.006-04:002021-09-01T01:12:37.860-04:00August Continues Summer Trend of Cool and Wet<p><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT6GAOGBSWESu2g8X-miSSqoFTsV9pRYW_L2pXhh9F79GTt6NgPSdDTdn5uNff9kr3nSEn_P3IS71NpBWFSTDTC9kJMEkrTKWfAeRAzI5KI_Br3PlvdzuPxBZX5WkygixQDrn0/s960/august.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="960" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT6GAOGBSWESu2g8X-miSSqoFTsV9pRYW_L2pXhh9F79GTt6NgPSdDTdn5uNff9kr3nSEn_P3IS71NpBWFSTDTC9kJMEkrTKWfAeRAzI5KI_Br3PlvdzuPxBZX5WkygixQDrn0/w400-h225/august.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />August was the fifth month in a row that saw temperatures
come in below normal. The warmest temperature during the entire month was 94
degrees. We saw no record highs during the month and the coolest overnight low
was 70 degrees. The month finished with a temperature average that was .2
degrees cooler than what’s normal. A warm ending to the month helped the
average temperatures moderate somewhat. The reason why temperatures were
generally below average was because of the increased cloud cover and rain.</span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidpCBGi7gKlGFBU5KApPrHWUWz5u3Rnj06_XbbxOXXFRQYhlT0AEXZTesO-RfU8rk_wcALi4CgRCObbZ1jNzehxoj7rJDP3zA4fbNYkVl_XdHmwM9S-zSQ8CfymiB1QQE3zzvw/s1246/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="1246" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidpCBGi7gKlGFBU5KApPrHWUWz5u3Rnj06_XbbxOXXFRQYhlT0AEXZTesO-RfU8rk_wcALi4CgRCObbZ1jNzehxoj7rJDP3zA4fbNYkVl_XdHmwM9S-zSQ8CfymiB1QQE3zzvw/w640-h344/Capture.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit;">A stalled frontal boundary over the Southeast helped enhance
our normal scattered showers and thunderstorms for several days. In fact,
August 1<sup>st</sup> saw the most rain. Officially in Jacksonville 1.25 inches
of rain fell. The other big weather story for the month was the tropics. The
First Coast was on the periphery of two different tropical systems- Tropical
Storm Fred and Hurricane Ida. The area saw greater impact’s from Fred’s outer
bands than Ida’s. Fred made landfall south of Panama City, FL on August 16.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsZ0L3m8K4ulrwOfFZ3Oc_YSbgOkxW5Op-UubvnX341QehMUS9MvWx5sB_tVj5bVZMMKqy1Qltzclwz7_vGzYvV1ITzt_pcBryfUYIFoxuRr6RNjiCpWEfpCVRwastf-up8dT0/s1012/Fred_2021-08-16_1620Z.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1012" data-original-width="800" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsZ0L3m8K4ulrwOfFZ3Oc_YSbgOkxW5Op-UubvnX341QehMUS9MvWx5sB_tVj5bVZMMKqy1Qltzclwz7_vGzYvV1ITzt_pcBryfUYIFoxuRr6RNjiCpWEfpCVRwastf-up8dT0/w316-h400/Fred_2021-08-16_1620Z.jpg" width="316" /></a></div><br /><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;">
Rain fell on 23 out of the 31 days of the month. This helped the yearly precipitation
surplus continue. August closed out with more than half a foot of rainfall
above average. August has the acclaimed title of usually being the </span>rainiest<span style="font-family: inherit;"> month of the year. As we start to enter fall, chances for precipitation usually start to diminish quickly.</span><o:p></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIGhIXOBgEV_th1C1qhvGoV8uoGoJdHxhZRGmSjAAoBY5_TePzjBzAUDNOtYdd3Xm64tlwbzdXS_c7Z-uEDQAyaEbaoGnkxxkHTZpfW5YzsK8HNZoMWyDuUH6AQxaemb1emQHG/s1305/two_atl_5d0.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="706" data-original-width="1305" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIGhIXOBgEV_th1C1qhvGoV8uoGoJdHxhZRGmSjAAoBY5_TePzjBzAUDNOtYdd3Xm64tlwbzdXS_c7Z-uEDQAyaEbaoGnkxxkHTZpfW5YzsK8HNZoMWyDuUH6AQxaemb1emQHG/w640-h346/two_atl_5d0.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhynwQilIxX13JjWYGVwdMORxN9gWDc7fJdz0rqQHe5ksZnIJLfrEqBOC1PsGHAS3FmRjcXo0PiuomDUjSzK5HPA1IQ4swNNdWC6wHTxT157y3qdlMEbbDram5pf6A-or5jJqe9/s1409/2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1409" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhynwQilIxX13JjWYGVwdMORxN9gWDc7fJdz0rqQHe5ksZnIJLfrEqBOC1PsGHAS3FmRjcXo0PiuomDUjSzK5HPA1IQ4swNNdWC6wHTxT157y3qdlMEbbDram5pf6A-or5jJqe9/w640-h360/2.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p></p>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-53508210404121953792021-08-29T00:51:00.004-04:002021-08-29T00:51:29.438-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #14: Busy Tropics, No Immediate Threats<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUVx6ksKvbGQIFDdXfYkInveF55QBxVu85CM56Ob0ew6qUQtLlFcz4z1zQeDFJ3sERmSe0gArvWTk_O19vqJ6TK_We5bEYUNQ8LpJs_y51OY1HR2EPzjx0RC2_cUoMwDfRdzaA/s1200/goes16_ir_atl+%252813%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="1200" height="325" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUVx6ksKvbGQIFDdXfYkInveF55QBxVu85CM56Ob0ew6qUQtLlFcz4z1zQeDFJ3sERmSe0gArvWTk_O19vqJ6TK_We5bEYUNQ8LpJs_y51OY1HR2EPzjx0RC2_cUoMwDfRdzaA/w640-h325/goes16_ir_atl+%252813%2529.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br />There is plenty to track across the Atlantic but none of the systems are immediate threats to Florida. Hurricane Ida is making its way through Louisiana, after becoming a major hurricane in the Gulf. In addition to Ida, there are two systems that have formed in the central/northern Atlantic.<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie07k_0S57KeXo1z5GhvmJuI713sAiwDsLY_vZ8cC-Fz4OyfGbOmTKElHkPaXVewzU9NYquBYJq77vaw76a_eQVhTAUD9DkRt2PnXo-FnznCHrOG6VStxRolC73xvm-EwrkM9Q/s1007/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="732" data-original-width="1007" height="291" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie07k_0S57KeXo1z5GhvmJuI713sAiwDsLY_vZ8cC-Fz4OyfGbOmTKElHkPaXVewzU9NYquBYJq77vaw76a_eQVhTAUD9DkRt2PnXo-FnznCHrOG6VStxRolC73xvm-EwrkM9Q/w400-h291/Capture.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><p>Both of these systems have struggled to become tropical depressions and even though they will gain the names of Julian and Kate, they’ll remain weak and just impact shipping lanes in the Atlantic.</p><p>Two other areas to monitor will be the Caribbean Sea and the eastern Atlantic for a tropical development. Anything that does form in the Caribbean Sea will likely head towards Central America and parts of Mexico and stay well away from the United States.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAj2D92fbm51wo9NXc7gqh445oLYUr72HT4NJYVDhRuuDmbQzMYSlCit3S8p8zN-PddI_GbCyj7xp9KiV9Lev-8rLjjm1WpDCB7lDKXvAtHpgm0nknR67HplL39sf1WzbpmsKA/s1311/155544_peak_surge.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1311" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAj2D92fbm51wo9NXc7gqh445oLYUr72HT4NJYVDhRuuDmbQzMYSlCit3S8p8zN-PddI_GbCyj7xp9KiV9Lev-8rLjjm1WpDCB7lDKXvAtHpgm0nknR67HplL39sf1WzbpmsKA/w400-h259/155544_peak_surge.png" width="400" /></a></div><p>The main system to watch post-Ida will be a tropical wave that will soon emerge from the African coast. Several models immediately develop the wave once it enters the Atlantic Ocean. The models also drive the disturbance harmlessly into the northeast Atlantic. It is important to note that models tend to underperform on ridge strength. If this is the case, we would expect to see the disturbance take a more westerly route.</p><p>The good news is that we will have plenty of time to monitor the wave in the eastern Atlantic. It is not unusual to see the Atlantic busy this time of year, we are less than 2 weeks away from the climatological peak of the season.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSXp1FgTF-xP3T7RHF0W6GvtdG23W_0wH0x6rPZDcRWzmk6xLwHe-Kq54QFKR1KcqmYqYsbmGt7b7kXPbGPdjJU7_twfHtFNtJqj_I5y4D3nFrEUj6_gdeswekWf4rhkTG6Wpc/s643/025249_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="569" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSXp1FgTF-xP3T7RHF0W6GvtdG23W_0wH0x6rPZDcRWzmk6xLwHe-Kq54QFKR1KcqmYqYsbmGt7b7kXPbGPdjJU7_twfHtFNtJqj_I5y4D3nFrEUj6_gdeswekWf4rhkTG6Wpc/w354-h400/025249_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="354" /></a></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-4537094846384976072021-08-22T23:49:00.001-04:002021-08-22T23:49:04.965-04:00Great Charleston Earthquake Rocked Area in 1866<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5dFdORdg1llt8XL_VFochZXKSY6BX9joTI3iShez55Q-_Irh5B_onCn8JxG-EXmVlB-jEjPVuebl1B9JnKwEGpAduA90EwyFeblQeqCp-iNVFsl3GCg0KUpdbmGJUp5UDVySM/s1100/charlestonEarthquake.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="1100" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5dFdORdg1llt8XL_VFochZXKSY6BX9joTI3iShez55Q-_Irh5B_onCn8JxG-EXmVlB-jEjPVuebl1B9JnKwEGpAduA90EwyFeblQeqCp-iNVFsl3GCg0KUpdbmGJUp5UDVySM/w640-h232/charlestonEarthquake.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">During the evening of August 31, 1886, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake
centered near Charleston, SC rocked the Southeast and created damage up and
down the Eastern Seaboard. It’s believed a shift in the continental shelf
caused the shaking that was felt from New England to Key West.<br />
<br />
Locally, chicken coops were knocked over, boats were damaged and church bells
rang in St. Augustine. At the time, many did not know what was caused the
ground to shake. The damaged reported in Jacksonville was not nearly as
significant as what was reported around the epicenter. In fact, Jacksonville pledged
aide to the Charleston earthquake victims.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It’s estimated the earthquake caused $5 – $6 million ($159 million
in 2021 values) in damage and at least 60 deaths. Shaking from aftershocks
continued the November of 1886. The earthquake remains one of the most powerful
ever to impact the East Coast of the U.S.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_18-jkEL86Iveq-dcEPSJQgPl4cPE5_Kq_FWKp8OR-X9FEHhiVSdImgWYRCl5S8V0eY3awSrHsNPGuiKS8-r9G1bY3GcJqXo5SDOQhhHo1LTRnhVZbBd4HdZN2X9o3WPYlgbe/s659/Fig27_earthquake+map+with+mercalli+scale_eastern+US.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="659" data-original-width="526" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_18-jkEL86Iveq-dcEPSJQgPl4cPE5_Kq_FWKp8OR-X9FEHhiVSdImgWYRCl5S8V0eY3awSrHsNPGuiKS8-r9G1bY3GcJqXo5SDOQhhHo1LTRnhVZbBd4HdZN2X9o3WPYlgbe/w510-h640/Fig27_earthquake+map+with+mercalli+scale_eastern+US.jpg" width="510" /></a></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-35976631266886825012021-08-22T03:22:00.002-04:002021-08-22T03:22:28.884-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #13: Temporary Lull Before Heart Of The Season<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYufNyNsbyzAa_DZIqErWo-Xa7GA5ywFx1a3FIIRzeCtv-dAkZR5hmpA9uXRrz_Enk-Xp4uwsJl3pkeQCKQsH3RGceGbh7h7f_bKxYbe4iSmVnmeVRF4YohE747PdeI78n4fLX/s1200/goes16_ir_atl+%252815%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="1200" height="325" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYufNyNsbyzAa_DZIqErWo-Xa7GA5ywFx1a3FIIRzeCtv-dAkZR5hmpA9uXRrz_Enk-Xp4uwsJl3pkeQCKQsH3RGceGbh7h7f_bKxYbe4iSmVnmeVRF4YohE747PdeI78n4fLX/w640-h325/goes16_ir_atl+%252815%2529.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0f1419; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">After Henri’s landfall in New England, we’ll
see a temporary lull in the Atlantic basin, until conditions turn ripe again.
There will be two areas to monitor as we end the week, but it looks like we’ll
be able to escape the without any significant development.<br />
<br />
The two areas we’ll be keeping our eyes on will be the Caribbean and an area in
the Central Atlantic, not too far from Bermuda. Neither area has a significant tropical
disturbance there now, but an area of upward velocities will begin making its
way across the basin, from west to east.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0f1419; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkFEAEzRXApSot5tSBTBvB_Ppl4M_2T7wuXKhyOo-ztxWvNkTAoLBvnVnXgGBVldEXkTZ5wQjtV-ovFOgmNa97jEfMaazl7PhEFX0JyGQnPxciJyJQHdHBcK99kCwnlUDYa9ii/s826/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="535" data-original-width="826" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkFEAEzRXApSot5tSBTBvB_Ppl4M_2T7wuXKhyOo-ztxWvNkTAoLBvnVnXgGBVldEXkTZ5wQjtV-ovFOgmNa97jEfMaazl7PhEFX0JyGQnPxciJyJQHdHBcK99kCwnlUDYa9ii/w400-h259/Capture.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0f1419; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">With a significant ridge over the Eastern United
States, whatever does develop in the Caribbean looks like it could be a threat
to the western parts of the Gulf of Mexico. Any development in the central
Atlantic would likely be a system that remains out at sea. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0f1419; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The tropical storm that forms will be
named Ida. So far, we’ve seen 8 named storms, with 3 hurricanes. The peak of
the season is usually around September 10. The pace of tropical cyclones will
likely make the season hyperactive.</span></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf5nYJNqLDzSOMeMCYwg2c3RumsGJXnqYDhyphenhyphenJj4O8aC1HbIV6E6jMDpqYoJx-fqDK7kz9djQihfga7VUDheeP2PdPGVswtJMHvhTBVXW-ci9Uxr-veRUCHiZWauVXqqQbFDt11/s960/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="960" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf5nYJNqLDzSOMeMCYwg2c3RumsGJXnqYDhyphenhyphenJj4O8aC1HbIV6E6jMDpqYoJx-fqDK7kz9djQihfga7VUDheeP2PdPGVswtJMHvhTBVXW-ci9Uxr-veRUCHiZWauVXqqQbFDt11/w400-h297/Capture.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br />Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-81600325103883645682021-08-15T21:33:00.001-04:002021-08-15T22:25:16.834-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #12: Atlantic Basin Is Active<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5BRTALahTBeNsI1tVXQF89hPHmS_9UvSn2lFQvj0G0qMzGseG55Drj8v_TniqhwiTfCJgmpThBEqoSAN-M5m_qydYQ6Pt5DXhH9F-DYizumZ_k4reL5UYyQcBM1x5Mbn0S6R6/s1200/goes16_ir_atl+%252813%2529.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="1200" height="325" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5BRTALahTBeNsI1tVXQF89hPHmS_9UvSn2lFQvj0G0qMzGseG55Drj8v_TniqhwiTfCJgmpThBEqoSAN-M5m_qydYQ6Pt5DXhH9F-DYizumZ_k4reL5UYyQcBM1x5Mbn0S6R6/w640-h325/goes16_ir_atl+%252813%2529.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">There are plenty of features to monitor over the next week
throughout the Atlantic Basin. Tropical Storm Fred is of most immediate concern
and will make landfall along the Florida Panhandle as a tropical storm. None of
the systems being monitored are expected to immediately become significant cyclones.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjujqcM4EiHus2Uzf1AbRqBkzO0xKYWypvW5RDvGanm5fEW2GvfwDnwB8gAfihBr46fnlT_ehG-z5v7WkRnVLMhP0L6teuFxj9LxML2Cf4JyURzX0azlbgB2ZBrZk5OKuhGTNA6/s900/3.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="900" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjujqcM4EiHus2Uzf1AbRqBkzO0xKYWypvW5RDvGanm5fEW2GvfwDnwB8gAfihBr46fnlT_ehG-z5v7WkRnVLMhP0L6teuFxj9LxML2Cf4JyURzX0azlbgB2ZBrZk5OKuhGTNA6/w400-h295/3.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal">
Fred has truly never has gotten his act together. The system has been
influenced by the proximity to land. From the beginning, Fred was never
expected to be much a wind threat, just a significant water event. And this
will turn out to be the case for much of Florida and the Southeast. After Fred’s
landfall in the western Panhandle, it really doesn’t have any place to go. And
its remnants could linger around for most of the week.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhm47IqPQkY3DVEKwpfO1TMkDomhHji0g9iPnQ8ARx2PamWLEON50Mu-nyq3t-SP_cRU4d7UCmK4HsnZJVYmCKhEponxrV1IeaTEmqR0lDW74ulllL6l50aHer1mB_XrbBn2bU/s897/3.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhm47IqPQkY3DVEKwpfO1TMkDomhHji0g9iPnQ8ARx2PamWLEON50Mu-nyq3t-SP_cRU4d7UCmK4HsnZJVYmCKhEponxrV1IeaTEmqR0lDW74ulllL6l50aHer1mB_XrbBn2bU/w400-h329/3.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV9e7udCsKf1Iec-j1z_ck4EDqgMpJsOeWGWvhgIAPh3kkbAqSFwEyMAuTPlySbOX1zhjBFtncPyO9eXFBjDs_nVLG6hhxe7n8guSXF2X4VvSeOFOBOyIk7_F5lMgq1XhDCozH/s1205/3.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="700" data-original-width="1205" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV9e7udCsKf1Iec-j1z_ck4EDqgMpJsOeWGWvhgIAPh3kkbAqSFwEyMAuTPlySbOX1zhjBFtncPyO9eXFBjDs_nVLG6hhxe7n8guSXF2X4VvSeOFOBOyIk7_F5lMgq1XhDCozH/w400-h233/3.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p class="MsoNormal">The second system to watch is Grace. Grace, similar to Fred,
has never really gotten its act together. That being said, it’ll eventually be
an issue that areas of the western Gulf of Mexico will have to deal with. How
strong the system will get is still up for debate, but we shouldn’t if it is
able to ramp up before landfall in either Mexico or Texas.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9FgFgZKGk4aX0IUNDZpEfU0bmStH5g7YhqN161XDUdsw8yKcGbuD5vzwlbY5Hvqgok66spdi9w60MOGpa9i7U5TIIaoBQOVqWwKhciuiQeAH7DhOv5Wg8m43gJvnkMIxsOImu/s994/Capture.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="655" data-original-width="994" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9FgFgZKGk4aX0IUNDZpEfU0bmStH5g7YhqN161XDUdsw8yKcGbuD5vzwlbY5Hvqgok66spdi9w60MOGpa9i7U5TIIaoBQOVqWwKhciuiQeAH7DhOv5Wg8m43gJvnkMIxsOImu/w400-h264/Capture.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><br />
The third system to watch is disturbance #96L near Bermuda. This system is
quite small and the only land mass it’ll threaten will be Bermuda. If it does strengthen
into a tropical storm, its name would be “Henri”. Similar to Fred, the system
could get stuck by a ridge of high pressure, and we might still be tracking the
feature for more than a week.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Finally, a system that’ll emerge off the African coast could
strengthen into “Ida”. Similar to the previous disturbances that have emerged
from the continent, it’ll be slow to develop but will certainly be one to
monitor. This disturbance, which has yet to emerge from the coast of Africa is
likely to be the first major cyclone of the year.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2VgqpY8fQPX5wXXNzDmoXtw40TxXVGeEmoWZRsbW5emD8NQq5zppgTz-8jWN4ovxLMaqPtl2eE9M77NlgAItwiMBO_fRPSs81XdXvOAyPtMpt1gp8Mm63S-Ie87khzzi-sRa_/s1542/g16split.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="820" data-original-width="1542" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2VgqpY8fQPX5wXXNzDmoXtw40TxXVGeEmoWZRsbW5emD8NQq5zppgTz-8jWN4ovxLMaqPtl2eE9M77NlgAItwiMBO_fRPSs81XdXvOAyPtMpt1gp8Mm63S-Ie87khzzi-sRa_/w640-h340/g16split.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-71355859478322555552021-08-07T00:02:00.004-04:002021-08-07T00:02:36.771-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #11: Expect Tropical Cyclone Development<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-WhqEsMkNUitUdcDSUaMdKkaUqPuoCYL2hF28pgfpFFNLLnioOjgdShcZEP2BU6bx2kHf8hFRn1uBhmRp_kOMX3Um5UGOdL2mRsvVXQK1OVYG4nGk3_8_4eOk_kyKQ9ugZFsU/s900/Capture2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="900" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-WhqEsMkNUitUdcDSUaMdKkaUqPuoCYL2hF28pgfpFFNLLnioOjgdShcZEP2BU6bx2kHf8hFRn1uBhmRp_kOMX3Um5UGOdL2mRsvVXQK1OVYG4nGk3_8_4eOk_kyKQ9ugZFsU/w400-h295/Capture2.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>We will likely see the first tropical development in a month
in the Atlantic basin. Africa has produced a series of tropical disturbances and
the third in the line of waves has the best chance of development. It isn’t a
surprise that development is anticipated. Both climatology and the current
conditions across the Atlantic favor development.<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglDEFTTfvXq_vw2_v5FYHyUV2LGJsqnZ3lZ7ciI9-y3ov4Aj9k6uV-S2MuXRN80zyBeb9KENMkHkTTDX7dF0SgE1ii7OlbiPlsBu3CbH2kNzVFwK66vWYN102YvR2-OJF8-Qx3/s1200/212979367_10221976917586195_1322725258328902754_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="557" data-original-width="1200" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglDEFTTfvXq_vw2_v5FYHyUV2LGJsqnZ3lZ7ciI9-y3ov4Aj9k6uV-S2MuXRN80zyBeb9KENMkHkTTDX7dF0SgE1ii7OlbiPlsBu3CbH2kNzVFwK66vWYN102YvR2-OJF8-Qx3/w640-h298/212979367_10221976917586195_1322725258328902754_n.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal">
The wave with the highest chance to develop has been given the designation as 92L.
The disturbance is currently heading westbound and is entering the central
Atlantic. The wave has been slow to develop and that will continue because of
its proximity to the monsoon trough. The wave cannot gain its own closed
circulation until it separates for the belt of moisture that extends for
several hundred miles in the eastern and central Atlantic.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVVqI7sIdSpxKY5BCKxYfLqKkc7iEY8fbGdvCNXhWGUNrJuSCYICIwA3VWvYPypEpNg3pwJ2CKWDJ6binDaLO3M6Jc1VluWPsvMBqkEl1C8sGL7Y6GUKCQDPNqX1hLy9joeo7u/s1240/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="1240" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVVqI7sIdSpxKY5BCKxYfLqKkc7iEY8fbGdvCNXhWGUNrJuSCYICIwA3VWvYPypEpNg3pwJ2CKWDJ6binDaLO3M6Jc1VluWPsvMBqkEl1C8sGL7Y6GUKCQDPNqX1hLy9joeo7u/w400-h251/Capture.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal">The disturbance should be able to pull away from the trough
this week and develop into a tropical depression and maybe even a tropical
storm. If it were to organize enough and have winds of more than 40 miles per
hour, the system would gain the name of “Fred.” Even if development occurs, the
system would still be several hundred miles from the closest land mass. Any
threat to the Caribbean Islands would be after August 15, if at all.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Elsewhere in the tropics, no development is anticipated
during the next week. We will, however, have to monitor another tropical wave
that push off the coast of Africa. Seeing several disturbances in the Atlantic is normal for this time of year. We are in the ramp up to the peak of the season in September.<o:p></o:p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzNjRH-4XZstpJ_FSkP6b6rKcA7fDuE3SzGUy29cLUuZZehx_VWLhcM9mCO2kgnWrPp1eDArj6G9Yd7rmEr2yD0xcp_tqyZm4NecCcl34AfKVZF4GM1WxNWhdGYcOQmpJTsK2y/s1025/hurricane2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1025" height="422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzNjRH-4XZstpJ_FSkP6b6rKcA7fDuE3SzGUy29cLUuZZehx_VWLhcM9mCO2kgnWrPp1eDArj6G9Yd7rmEr2yD0xcp_tqyZm4NecCcl34AfKVZF4GM1WxNWhdGYcOQmpJTsK2y/w640-h422/hurricane2.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-7645681344299410852021-08-01T03:36:00.006-04:002021-08-01T03:36:44.695-04:00July Wraps Up Cooler and Wetter Than Average<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiirmpqBQnFWfgK6MYd0wB4VRh41_f4I2D-GIAFeAA8AD3f4aXagCA5wO39xDCMNSG5etLuWd8j1JYFpgJXFX4ehfwJKWek9EkSB4FWPnr2xZAr4lBDY5uh9k3QpwdxMwORkVmb/s2048/212979367_10221976917586195_1322725258328902754_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiirmpqBQnFWfgK6MYd0wB4VRh41_f4I2D-GIAFeAA8AD3f4aXagCA5wO39xDCMNSG5etLuWd8j1JYFpgJXFX4ehfwJKWek9EkSB4FWPnr2xZAr4lBDY5uh9k3QpwdxMwORkVmb/w400-h300/212979367_10221976917586195_1322725258328902754_n.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">July continued a 4-month streak of temperatures below
normal. Thirteen days of the month only saw highs in the 80s. The average high
should be around 92 degrees, but the monthly average only clocked in around 89
degrees. Seventy-eight percent of the days in July were cooler than average. Usually July is Jacksonville’s warmest month but the lack of any
westerly or southwesterly flow helped keep temperatures more moderate. <o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibZyaWwU41Q-PHkmp6c1_fKP6JnAFmHEqkUhyLU70jTFcQsnKeTQ_fcHms5SS3yOl6J6ULhyphenhyphenXx9ZS4FECcQG25fkWUMLMKl2XEzXqzZZqNifuI13MIP8DY3GwZN_ks3JrxLxhq/s1289/2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="694" data-original-width="1289" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibZyaWwU41Q-PHkmp6c1_fKP6JnAFmHEqkUhyLU70jTFcQsnKeTQ_fcHms5SS3yOl6J6ULhyphenhyphenXx9ZS4FECcQG25fkWUMLMKl2XEzXqzZZqNifuI13MIP8DY3GwZN_ks3JrxLxhq/w640-h344/2.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div style="text-align: left;">The month’s weather headlines were also dominated by the
tropics. A tropical disturbance and Tropical Storm Elsa influenced the area’s
weather for several days. Elsa made landfall on July 7<sup>th</sup> in Florida’s
Big Bend as a strong tropical storm. Much of the local area was put under
tropical storm warnings and a tornado watch. The system produced on average 2 –
5 inches of rain and was responsible for several tornadoes and waterspouts. One
person was killed when part of a tree fell on car along U.S. 17 in the Ortega
area.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi99bEZgt_YExqHE2_VIJqN_H6IGi14SJyIGO71gsfrC7cd8hzYFZKp-MFsP6yn4Mrm3aNvkA_alcW-ZVTVNunMPOOyDZtXWWghQkrISdLfL3AkPDqDYJoekF9rMH5A5A9iaoeu/s921/Capture1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="493" data-original-width="921" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi99bEZgt_YExqHE2_VIJqN_H6IGi14SJyIGO71gsfrC7cd8hzYFZKp-MFsP6yn4Mrm3aNvkA_alcW-ZVTVNunMPOOyDZtXWWghQkrISdLfL3AkPDqDYJoekF9rMH5A5A9iaoeu/w640-h342/Capture1.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTJXSaErXsINtlpMn_nXyAQBZSFfJDRAs_-sIOqLbpGS9onfI4G6JEuYlSgLpc6LQOQaNKywpKzq9chyphenhyphenzpMgjKHdmKr5QeFuxVU-dXGuH_JuWyWMKorD_YsbHT5779LWcujpM3/s1289/4.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="713" data-original-width="1289" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTJXSaErXsINtlpMn_nXyAQBZSFfJDRAs_-sIOqLbpGS9onfI4G6JEuYlSgLpc6LQOQaNKywpKzq9chyphenhyphenzpMgjKHdmKr5QeFuxVU-dXGuH_JuWyWMKorD_YsbHT5779LWcujpM3/w640-h354/4.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><br />
Thanks to July the year’s overall average temperature fell below normal for the
first time in several years. Usually temperatures reach the upper 90s to low one-hundreds
at least once during the summer months, but again, 2021 is a different year.
The warmest summer temperature only reached 95 degrees on July 31<sup>st</sup>.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbISoZRkWmX_dLeIkimfsZDgNPmqBEojlsOh1CfuF_ifkBeeHsq0krucuSQAnZU1WK9buY0bL5ExDDHioy2AQr15hijYs0NlTMIBEMGGmvSDqMjx2riw4AQuDRwowh8bfar-S4/s1194/3.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="671" data-original-width="1194" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbISoZRkWmX_dLeIkimfsZDgNPmqBEojlsOh1CfuF_ifkBeeHsq0krucuSQAnZU1WK9buY0bL5ExDDHioy2AQr15hijYs0NlTMIBEMGGmvSDqMjx2riw4AQuDRwowh8bfar-S4/w640-h360/3.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-86425096686942253972021-08-01T00:11:00.003-04:002021-08-01T00:11:37.444-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #10: Watching the Eastern Atlantic<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU3rMimpTr6riSlXp3DwpH9udokjpfWDMbcbykJIPYiCd_8_hZdc2EAz6WU3xEWzygN6OlLdadYi2d9H8htg25-bpDtijxfJF9yjvvX3v8VPq27iwdGKjwkVoskep9rheN9Upj/s1200/goes16_ir_atl+%25289%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="1200" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU3rMimpTr6riSlXp3DwpH9udokjpfWDMbcbykJIPYiCd_8_hZdc2EAz6WU3xEWzygN6OlLdadYi2d9H8htg25-bpDtijxfJF9yjvvX3v8VPq27iwdGKjwkVoskep9rheN9Upj/w400-h203/goes16_ir_atl+%25289%2529.gif" width="400" /></a></div><br />Our quiet tropics are about to turn active. All of the ingredients
are lining up for the development of our next cyclone in the Atlantic basin.
The MJO (<span style="background: white; line-height: 107%;">Madden-Julian Oscillation</span>) is heading
towards a favorable phase, a pulse of upward velocities will soon be over the
basin and shear levels aren’t too restrictive. MJO phases 8, 1, 2 and even 3 usually lead to an increase of activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.<br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5YENE_0DCNGRdyv7M3eCZ8LlItAWPUB3699fIo5bce5LqWEXTkQ9xarst5z7IwHaC-NUaG33-gSPUr6kJwybnT3MKuePa9IIYBumShuLftLFy8ikF2IXeO-QU3H8HMivokYs_/s673/3.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="622" data-original-width="673" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5YENE_0DCNGRdyv7M3eCZ8LlItAWPUB3699fIo5bce5LqWEXTkQ9xarst5z7IwHaC-NUaG33-gSPUr6kJwybnT3MKuePa9IIYBumShuLftLFy8ikF2IXeO-QU3H8HMivokYs_/s320/3.PNG" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">All being said, the week will likely end without a named storm forming in the
Atlantic basin. We are in a waiting mode to see what disturbances Africa
produces. A basin that is seeing plenty of development is the eastern Pacific.
There is a likelihood that that 3 cyclones will form within a 2 week period,
off the western coast of Central America.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1oPKSVDXD03aXVbftSkyHCZMMvKZSvNyDb6R8vQseI5bLKEfEWqWKqRjiMBDm7fCegA_Vo0srxu6zetnG8vcrhD9VXybEajfKTbn_Smyl22RoMuBCHlvQCizGlRD8kY8z8ONj/s1121/2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="1121" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1oPKSVDXD03aXVbftSkyHCZMMvKZSvNyDb6R8vQseI5bLKEfEWqWKqRjiMBDm7fCegA_Vo0srxu6zetnG8vcrhD9VXybEajfKTbn_Smyl22RoMuBCHlvQCizGlRD8kY8z8ONj/w400-h300/2.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The next cyclone that’ll form in the Atlantic
basin will earn the name ‘Fred’. So far, the Atlantic season has only seen 1
hurricane develop. Over the next few weeks we’ll likely increase this total as
we head towards to peak of the hurricane season. The statistical peak of the
hurricane season is in mid-September.</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHfk9dP4mDwKsLsrRyls0KHZQnOMlDNm4ayWSIBlMG7xA3I8Od6Pg9VxVYNDHTDwO_YYyCrga3kBiIUqom2tMqN7bzIifwmwmaN_GGWSN9UaQ0HwlAkc2SN9HFP6cFKvXmoqs5/s1024/4.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1024" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHfk9dP4mDwKsLsrRyls0KHZQnOMlDNm4ayWSIBlMG7xA3I8Od6Pg9VxVYNDHTDwO_YYyCrga3kBiIUqom2tMqN7bzIifwmwmaN_GGWSN9UaQ0HwlAkc2SN9HFP6cFKvXmoqs5/w640-h452/4.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-27995595419948370662021-07-25T23:59:00.001-04:002021-07-25T23:59:06.723-04:00NASA Predicts Increased Coastal Flooding Due to Moon Wobble<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXm0cL5vnzMoq0DMLKh7egMWflFecy9DIm_paJi6STYVrFraV-bIb7OwYkV_f5qfDl5tlSovMvQjMeahSd8T7lK1xmo4u9ljYQZF3q2SlnscaSpbxOd3Q19HPg1KWfzozHg3U4/s869/moon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="869" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXm0cL5vnzMoq0DMLKh7egMWflFecy9DIm_paJi6STYVrFraV-bIb7OwYkV_f5qfDl5tlSovMvQjMeahSd8T7lK1xmo4u9ljYQZF3q2SlnscaSpbxOd3Q19HPg1KWfzozHg3U4/w640-h220/moon.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">A new NASA study says that wobbles in
the moon’s orbit in combination climate change could lead to increased flooding
events in the upcoming decade. Increased flooding episodes along coastal
communities are expected to worsen during the 2030s. The moon’s changes in its
orbit aren’t anything new, wobbles have been observed for hundreds of years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">NASA expects not only the intensity of
flooding events to increase but also the frequency. Each year low lying areas
in Northeast Florida experience around half a dozen flooding events, from tidal
episodes. Two local areas that will likely see an increase in tidal flooding
are along Heckscher Drive in Northeast Duval County and in St. Augustine. NOAA
reported more than 600 “sunny day floods” in 2019, along coastal cities in the
U.S.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“Low-lying
areas near sea level are increasingly at risk and suffering due to the
increased flooding, and it will only get worse,” said NASA Administrator Bill
Nelson. “The combination of the Moon’s gravitational pull, rising sea levels,
and climate change will continue to exacerbate coastal flooding on our
coastlines and across the world. NASA’s Sea Level Change Team is providing
crucial information so that we can plan, protect, and prevent damage to the
environment and people’s livelihoods affected by flooding.”</span><o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_iOrl_zaNa5nNH3uyfIYEGritwtejPqvxaRaPxZGvAPcCLo4hqcXZOZvnugkI2lIspJMeSposYym1Iq-5Adb4AX7u7uw9LGxSvll0k7pksw55Wi6xWrUquy-PR3KifT2Wz8Gl/s2048/flooding.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_iOrl_zaNa5nNH3uyfIYEGritwtejPqvxaRaPxZGvAPcCLo4hqcXZOZvnugkI2lIspJMeSposYym1Iq-5Adb4AX7u7uw9LGxSvll0k7pksw55Wi6xWrUquy-PR3KifT2Wz8Gl/w400-h300/flooding.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-89396095047875606642021-07-25T03:04:00.000-04:002021-07-25T03:04:01.262-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #9: Last Weeks Of Calm<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0QVl9btYegcDVV4h2uxm5JqLY2_e_PJEPJ1uJqvskuM9qGEjKIdwYygD5HOZ3XlkghL7I5kTfoEFYUBc3OTJ2FMApkchsDnksfCxxJLe9YNnkRzF0wZvi3-UBHf6tqVDBV1xE/s1200/goes16_ir_atl+%25288%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="1200" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0QVl9btYegcDVV4h2uxm5JqLY2_e_PJEPJ1uJqvskuM9qGEjKIdwYygD5HOZ3XlkghL7I5kTfoEFYUBc3OTJ2FMApkchsDnksfCxxJLe9YNnkRzF0wZvi3-UBHf6tqVDBV1xE/w400-h203/goes16_ir_atl+%25288%2529.gif" width="400" /></a></div><p>We are entering some of our last weeks, before the tropics
begin to turn active in the Atlantic. There are a few clusters of storms that
are being tracked but none show any significant signs of development. The
Atlantic basin has seen a downward trend of velocities and that’ll continue for
at least another week.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK1KqrHEvYD6vGMKE4_DA0010putcoV3vjnl1OMvBNmF6xSsso6dIDNZkVtprWAdlVU77okWPkWarxf2Z-ZJ5uido2CMKjb8hhDzY_iXxWU4-bSZJnyorQwy9JrsFwWfPA5pCR/s1115/2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="848" data-original-width="1115" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK1KqrHEvYD6vGMKE4_DA0010putcoV3vjnl1OMvBNmF6xSsso6dIDNZkVtprWAdlVU77okWPkWarxf2Z-ZJ5uido2CMKjb8hhDzY_iXxWU4-bSZJnyorQwy9JrsFwWfPA5pCR/w400-h304/2.PNG" width="400" /></a><br /><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">There aren’t too many negative forces out there that would
hinder a tropical disturbance, but there is one ingredient missing- moisture.
Shear is low in several of the development areas and water temperatures are
warm enough to sustain a tropical cyclone. There is a rather large area of
Saharan dust but that will diminish over the next week.</span></div><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvrMzuGi8DzCfm6NBstZ1_bHa6oRH94sqJzi5xuoy6fyBdi7B8Gtml0WVTxUyV9RHqtRDaB1Y5BQInSfFunjMV-RLJ6s_6WUUsTlp50yWr56mCAkICEPtBlXXxciytm6SW-qSl/s1542/g16split.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="820" data-original-width="1542" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvrMzuGi8DzCfm6NBstZ1_bHa6oRH94sqJzi5xuoy6fyBdi7B8Gtml0WVTxUyV9RHqtRDaB1Y5BQInSfFunjMV-RLJ6s_6WUUsTlp50yWr56mCAkICEPtBlXXxciytm6SW-qSl/w400-h213/g16split.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;">It is not unusual for July to be mostly quiet in the
Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. We usually on see one system develop
during the month of July. The peak months to see activity are August, September
and October, and it looks like those months will live up to their notoriety.
Long-term climate models continue to indicate favorable conditions over the
Atlantic basin during the peak climatological months.<o:p></o:p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEire8x4PdGUmj1_TynbLogpeQiqfNumNgMFd5a5lBC39jMVaSvUwToLJHb5AcAU4OMJp9Do4fTb2i1tr0oEUJ1uvIJTmtBuGaIwaBX33QlGdHmFVHczdoVsT2hh6nVgeyQ4qloR/s630/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="588" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEire8x4PdGUmj1_TynbLogpeQiqfNumNgMFd5a5lBC39jMVaSvUwToLJHb5AcAU4OMJp9Do4fTb2i1tr0oEUJ1uvIJTmtBuGaIwaBX33QlGdHmFVHczdoVsT2hh6nVgeyQ4qloR/w598-h640/Capture.PNG" width="598" /></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;">So far the season, 4 named storms and 1
hurricane have formed in the Atlantic basin. This is above normal activity. If
the season outlooks are correct, we could see 16 more named storms and 8 more
hurricanes. The next tropical storm will earn the name ‘Fred’.</span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghuoA1FYpSmujZwIo0ytik7OuKjgpac2iiliYwUx5hnnIz9p3LjYb2SfFEQgbyL-D7BtKEivaL_ujKr15wvfmNg9aZBx_huQmtP3MkAVJ5JrzBMeb4memTYgRK1eXZdIbxpprf/s970/Capture1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="653" data-original-width="970" height="269" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghuoA1FYpSmujZwIo0ytik7OuKjgpac2iiliYwUx5hnnIz9p3LjYb2SfFEQgbyL-D7BtKEivaL_ujKr15wvfmNg9aZBx_huQmtP3MkAVJ5JrzBMeb4memTYgRK1eXZdIbxpprf/w400-h269/Capture1.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-78753129216668025182021-07-18T20:30:00.005-04:002021-07-18T20:30:30.999-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #8: Pacific Remains Active, Atlantic Shut Down<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe-uyMqlWaMasYQ_d0kQtz5cWAKpqhXVIVwYIt6HOdcEOFT40hZuw3YEejO-F0A6nyv_9kFOA5yDg1yBXCEwhhhD2M_ddQIia5MzTcTyxeCWlL29A8f_IplXYtsLSQve-JpJRF/s1200/324fc2c3-c0e8-42ad-b4a1-ee85a8ae56e6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="1200" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe-uyMqlWaMasYQ_d0kQtz5cWAKpqhXVIVwYIt6HOdcEOFT40hZuw3YEejO-F0A6nyv_9kFOA5yDg1yBXCEwhhhD2M_ddQIia5MzTcTyxeCWlL29A8f_IplXYtsLSQve-JpJRF/w640-h324/324fc2c3-c0e8-42ad-b4a1-ee85a8ae56e6.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: inherit;">It might begin to sound like a broken record- the Pacific Ocean
is active, while all remains calm in the Atlantic basin. There are changes on
the horizon, but for the rest of the month and into early next month, there is
no tropical cyclone activity anticipated in the Atlantic basin.</span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYwjKn1cZJb1v2a5Omb3Tp4fnKy3vdcihxLXukpcdBHA87HCSLrwizsi6vKrwxjfDik-cCm_ww1YhsvjEN0TmUDHoZQQI364UQYDgExPcQ05c73i4MVd9x5sS0QRMBv0P7DWar/s900/two_pac_5d0.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="900" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYwjKn1cZJb1v2a5Omb3Tp4fnKy3vdcihxLXukpcdBHA87HCSLrwizsi6vKrwxjfDik-cCm_ww1YhsvjEN0TmUDHoZQQI364UQYDgExPcQ05c73i4MVd9x5sS0QRMBv0P7DWar/w640-h472/two_pac_5d0.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: inherit;">The favorable conditions in the Pacific has lead to the development of a major hurricane and a tropical storm. And we are likely to see one or two more tropical systems before the Atlantic heads back into production mode. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNyGxLKIpc4XJxN-HvuQ-jMCZcA_U14pLPS7imyQlDuGGBz6dqZsz6NCwmb35N2Oj7i-_jo0u2B9kyTKR3NXL_IJrlaOBQznbOHt6ZkGc8-aPqiPIemUKh9bFVaJES5U5V4pPx/s1120/2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="1120" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNyGxLKIpc4XJxN-HvuQ-jMCZcA_U14pLPS7imyQlDuGGBz6dqZsz6NCwmb35N2Oj7i-_jo0u2B9kyTKR3NXL_IJrlaOBQznbOHt6ZkGc8-aPqiPIemUKh9bFVaJES5U5V4pPx/w640-h480/2.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-outline-level: 3;"><span><span style="color: #212121; font-family: inherit;">
Conditions are moderately favorable for development in the </span><span style="color: #212121;">Atlantic</span><span style="color: #212121; font-family: inherit;">, shear is manageably and
the Saharan Air layer isn’t dominating. What is holding the Atlantic back from
producing a tropical cyclone is an unfavorable MJO and suppressed waves of
velocity. These factors look like they will be in control of the basin through
the first week in August.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-outline-level: 3;"><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh34T47jzw9JgGuDMNqpYEdgaQ2ANmAi1Na-PDk1Jc-X-zCIauiCGAEgG0OQ620GWY0FuFCszqonf_kOQqdO1zeT7YsDrHk4knBJQOrKZUGDK8x7xQT7cG9E2N3jMzTl_YJ7xtN/s718/down.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="349" data-original-width="718" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh34T47jzw9JgGuDMNqpYEdgaQ2ANmAi1Na-PDk1Jc-X-zCIauiCGAEgG0OQ620GWY0FuFCszqonf_kOQqdO1zeT7YsDrHk4knBJQOrKZUGDK8x7xQT7cG9E2N3jMzTl_YJ7xtN/w640-h312/down.PNG" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-outline-level: 3;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">After the first week in
August, look out! Atlantic tropical cyclone activity looks like it’ll come back
in a big way and the uptick in activity could stay around for an extended
period, possibly even into what is considered the peak of hurricane season. The
next name on the 2021 list is “Fred”.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-outline-level: 3;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #212121;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgLcGj52tKROtJOqDutVb2Acl-Jxs81vSHFdcYArkJNYy27IATpJhIC_3WJu4Dr1sK5CKnCT3sWWLOsa-rVjLVCy3OV_3_DG8THx5BbHW1N7q37GKTOw9On_p_CZNTykUzxDGn/s608/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="520" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgLcGj52tKROtJOqDutVb2Acl-Jxs81vSHFdcYArkJNYy27IATpJhIC_3WJu4Dr1sK5CKnCT3sWWLOsa-rVjLVCy3OV_3_DG8THx5BbHW1N7q37GKTOw9On_p_CZNTykUzxDGn/w548-h640/Capture.PNG" width="548" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p></p>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-48119813532976090642021-07-18T00:34:00.003-04:002021-07-18T00:34:41.279-04:00Fall Preview: Warm & Dry With An Eye On The Tropics<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg86_FkPsYOV_VTwX3vhC32cOO6OqZSrWCnpEq-lh-b9lJRxgJrxio4q_c72OVyozIwWGQX8r8aha0J-7QPiMJfKL3FBfHq51FEW6xRwt6oLhxholCJoK1CSwQqIVTVjrUENcAg/s1200/capter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="778" data-original-width="1200" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg86_FkPsYOV_VTwX3vhC32cOO6OqZSrWCnpEq-lh-b9lJRxgJrxio4q_c72OVyozIwWGQX8r8aha0J-7QPiMJfKL3FBfHq51FEW6xRwt6oLhxholCJoK1CSwQqIVTVjrUENcAg/w400-h259/capter.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">After
a relatively cool summer, our fall weather pattern will depend largely on what
happens in the tropics. A majority of our summer days were between 1 – 3 degrees
below normal. The cooler weather was caused by a combination of rain and the
lack of any type of westerly flow, which usually helps us heat up.</span></span></p><p><span style="line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1EAHiTYmUIN9e4ZbS-bEm5WrjTrekxnWd6wO0GHvzlHkKyc2g7S0-_QfgNvN_TCtIFWO0PRwWoW66VMgy8ZrirToETBO4SDjylOl4lD5Br5YapzDEAsLhHSLd8cySGCPoIlCM/s1294/Capture1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="1294" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1EAHiTYmUIN9e4ZbS-bEm5WrjTrekxnWd6wO0GHvzlHkKyc2g7S0-_QfgNvN_TCtIFWO0PRwWoW66VMgy8ZrirToETBO4SDjylOl4lD5Br5YapzDEAsLhHSLd8cySGCPoIlCM/w400-h264/Capture1.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
<br />
Autumn will officially begin on September 22 at 3:21 p.m. and this year it
looks like our fall could be the reverse of what we have seen the last several
months. Ridging over the Eastern U.S. could keep the warm breezes through much
of the season. This means we’ll likely see a cooler than average September, but
October and November could be warmer than average. In late September and early
October, we usually start looking for fronts to start cooling us down. With
more ridging in place, it is doubtful we’ll see many fronts make their way to
the First Coast. The lack of fronts will also impact our precipitation.</span></span></p><p><span style="line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR6_V9tqrrUq1XovwmeXdq-UGwGxDLeaABY1k5J3ryqxYBhPMWrIZJTS-BB8_CqNV4nervuZocZmrVlbK1aA00rclBbVXrdypZ8QI-dagmpfeFk01HA3kwFXrKNwd7HiuTiTWT/s1272/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="875" data-original-width="1272" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR6_V9tqrrUq1XovwmeXdq-UGwGxDLeaABY1k5J3ryqxYBhPMWrIZJTS-BB8_CqNV4nervuZocZmrVlbK1aA00rclBbVXrdypZ8QI-dagmpfeFk01HA3kwFXrKNwd7HiuTiTWT/w400-h275/Capture.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
Fall will likely be drier than average. Usually we see around 10 inches of
rainfall during fall. However, this year, with the lack of fronts, the amount
could be down significantly. A major wild card this year will be if a tropical
system impacts the region directly. Any impacts from a cyclone would significantly
increase precipitation and lead cooler conditions.</span><p></p><p><span style="line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF2dk0LTpIGD2X9j2oHOTmUiASU-duIp2KIEmhkMhbodITaVADh1mWQ2M7ZDK8GlUqW5XHMybmwZRX4a29E_LUu2x7XD57kagzVU5aWawiQ__gajJieGm0gQzC1WnlfVi4ggI3/s1220/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="734" data-original-width="1220" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF2dk0LTpIGD2X9j2oHOTmUiASU-duIp2KIEmhkMhbodITaVADh1mWQ2M7ZDK8GlUqW5XHMybmwZRX4a29E_LUu2x7XD57kagzVU5aWawiQ__gajJieGm0gQzC1WnlfVi4ggI3/w640-h386/Capture.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidQ6YmdcWMw-skKQdq40apypeiGJlfixAm7bww6Hu2Rgu0nRyUU-AFO6kaMJS-PtBCPzCW5YMOvXRf3ZWAk_Ia_2PV_j4p6Uwm8AZniUlosVYqQ6peC5y4wlcGe0JvVg7ILFqP/s1134/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="672" data-original-width="1134" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidQ6YmdcWMw-skKQdq40apypeiGJlfixAm7bww6Hu2Rgu0nRyUU-AFO6kaMJS-PtBCPzCW5YMOvXRf3ZWAk_Ia_2PV_j4p6Uwm8AZniUlosVYqQ6peC5y4wlcGe0JvVg7ILFqP/w640-h380/Capture.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>
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<!--[endif]--><p></p>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-17649306418253828842021-07-11T18:00:00.002-04:002021-07-11T22:34:46.670-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #7: Atlantic Basin Quiet, Pacific Active<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggfbK7qbTJIncIHAaUBbOXD3-_3GSTitsfM0_U2VeEwFHbAUr9HhhkzZOX4GxwRTXkmRB3z9OmfaxOnt7Yu98_NgwDfSnJkSOF6_s0EfhDxWCh1EgojzlLAnpEfcutg_iLuV2h/s1200/e.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="1200" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggfbK7qbTJIncIHAaUBbOXD3-_3GSTitsfM0_U2VeEwFHbAUr9HhhkzZOX4GxwRTXkmRB3z9OmfaxOnt7Yu98_NgwDfSnJkSOF6_s0EfhDxWCh1EgojzlLAnpEfcutg_iLuV2h/w400-h203/e.gif" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">I<span style="line-height: 107%;">t’ll be the tale of two different basins during
week 7 in the tropics. We’re likely to see at least one tropical cyclone form
in the eastern Pacific while the Atlantic basin will remain quiet. Any system
that forms in the Pacific will just be monitored for curiosity’s sake- it’ll never threaten land. The next named storm in the Pacific will earn the name
</span><span style="background: white; line-height: 107%;">Felicia</span>.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuJMs4QYPXWk4Npl42SCV_BxE_-oUXJ3UENsHJm96JW9dcsLmGCSY5e8wf9-wm7BNAauYWHJ1jUFetI9mNyyweNFU3UZnv-kJpeVMAqv99IqQzQYXyPDdi0C9tUcE5H0j6NNKe/s900/c.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="900" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuJMs4QYPXWk4Npl42SCV_BxE_-oUXJ3UENsHJm96JW9dcsLmGCSY5e8wf9-wm7BNAauYWHJ1jUFetI9mNyyweNFU3UZnv-kJpeVMAqv99IqQzQYXyPDdi0C9tUcE5H0j6NNKe/w400-h295/c.png" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;">A period of dry and downward velocities is moving across the Atlantic basin.
These factors will make it difficult for tropical disturbances to develop into
any type of cyclone. This period of inactivity in the Atlantic could stretch
into next month. Conditions will be more favorable when the MJO (</span><span style="background: white; font-family: inherit;">Madden-Julian Oscillation</span><span style="font-family: inherit;">) enters
8, 1, 2 or 3. It is not unusual for July to be quiet in the tropics. Usually we only see one named storm during the entire month.</span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7RROvGcUnNCh0xR_l8-Sk9HXSnd4WQgQ6gsGeXIlAWGQsrcKUqRdP0J7LG7j3jcheCHjLUPMtJCv-1lGAdQ1_oPBoa1tCpkcTpWHh-eBI5M7c4Mzp1prxaAPxYEAHvk_xrw2v/s680/b.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="605" data-original-width="680" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7RROvGcUnNCh0xR_l8-Sk9HXSnd4WQgQ6gsGeXIlAWGQsrcKUqRdP0J7LG7j3jcheCHjLUPMtJCv-1lGAdQ1_oPBoa1tCpkcTpWHh-eBI5M7c4Mzp1prxaAPxYEAHvk_xrw2v/w400-h356/b.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">
There are signs as we get deeper into August it could be very active. The next
named in the Atlantic basin will earn the name Fred. If the season predictions are accurate, we could see 15 more named storms, 8 more hurricanes and 4 of those could become major, with winds of at least 115 mph.<br /><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgEE-UwkEf-6KabcYRr8QnTtZdclHOy0oaN_dj-zuOFehnagBdAEYrLRsF6CllLG7mXADC6n-Scf5A21T1zvktDeUnA-iz_mWd5YXqiAnrvm5oRFHiqQm55WyBQASWNFo1cf1F/s681/a.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="561" data-original-width="681" height="528" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgEE-UwkEf-6KabcYRr8QnTtZdclHOy0oaN_dj-zuOFehnagBdAEYrLRsF6CllLG7mXADC6n-Scf5A21T1zvktDeUnA-iz_mWd5YXqiAnrvm5oRFHiqQm55WyBQASWNFo1cf1F/w640-h528/a.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div></span><br />Read the local recap on Tropical Storm Elsa: <a href="https://jacksonvilleweather.blogspot.com/2021/07/tropical-storm-elsa-leaves-behind.html">CICK HERE</a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /><br /></span>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-57071206736755640382021-07-11T03:57:00.006-04:002021-07-11T03:57:49.633-04:00La Nina Watch 2021<p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL86BNUI94zhXA7avVaZTrtDlQWQbL8iwj5pNlv6NxOy5AcPd7zgKadNClX7ZaTLJ1aEhJlXzkuLwegEIFWEVuR5dPQnkZxboAdIH-VkMq5k-JmVfB1_4GvrXyvrBiQPEqOJOU/s800/pac_anom.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="687" data-original-width="800" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL86BNUI94zhXA7avVaZTrtDlQWQbL8iwj5pNlv6NxOy5AcPd7zgKadNClX7ZaTLJ1aEhJlXzkuLwegEIFWEVuR5dPQnkZxboAdIH-VkMq5k-JmVfB1_4GvrXyvrBiQPEqOJOU/w400-h344/pac_anom.gif" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">It is likely before the year ends, the Northern Hemisphere
will transition from a neutral climate status to a La Nina. The big question is
when will the change occur and will it impact the 2021 Atlantic hurricane
season. And if you think that we just came out of a La Nina, you are right. If
we head back into a La Nina, like experts predict, it would be a double dip
back into the status.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfTv954piKpf4eGAapBjUzpYY6oaV-gAXs4VEKSnCHytYiQIOJO5lrgVrOiO4ETAvmENB2K9HJAuhk8cvtmBB2zt8dNoN4H_zHMfMcNx6NSNnU3AS8e-D5eiz86NLS9wsisVfz/s644/breaking.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="495" data-original-width="644" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfTv954piKpf4eGAapBjUzpYY6oaV-gAXs4VEKSnCHytYiQIOJO5lrgVrOiO4ETAvmENB2K9HJAuhk8cvtmBB2zt8dNoN4H_zHMfMcNx6NSNnU3AS8e-D5eiz86NLS9wsisVfz/w400-h308/breaking.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;">Experts at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration give it a
66% chance of reentering La Nina sometime during the fall and lasting through
the 2021-2022 winters. This chance is fairly high as pertains to climate
forecasts. Experts believe the change from the current stage of neutral to La
Nina will likely happen because of several factors. One of the factors is that
water temperatures in the Pacific never really rebounded from the cool readings
over the last year or so. Nearly every climate model agrees that the Northern Hemisphere
will head back in the direction of La Nina.</span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSqNKLXnnarO8vmyvhCBhzX9uE6EVgDjVWzAN8aLJ1UsxSaSirXP8OeBOuY-adJwanXeUtfesRgIOhuIPFIjd2VVuQbnNTKxyCQXe5ZPbDg2Bg5Ps3bwgs9XzKkmHuvmo3yXnh/s828/tornado.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="476" data-original-width="828" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSqNKLXnnarO8vmyvhCBhzX9uE6EVgDjVWzAN8aLJ1UsxSaSirXP8OeBOuY-adJwanXeUtfesRgIOhuIPFIjd2VVuQbnNTKxyCQXe5ZPbDg2Bg5Ps3bwgs9XzKkmHuvmo3yXnh/w400-h230/tornado.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p></p>
<span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The status of the climate could have impacts on
our weather. First, it could mean there are less obstacles for developing
tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Shear is usually reduced and water
temperatures are warmer during La Nina events. Secondly, a La Nina winter could
bring back cold air, similar to the 2020-2021 season.<br />
<br />
Is an active hurricane guaranteed? No. Is a cold winter guaranteed? No. While
the weather is not guaranteed, knowing the climate’s status can give us insight
as to what is likely to occur given the state of the atmosphere. <br /></span><br />
<!--[endif]--></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpeAvY8_2GSVTg7Qu4OMwHdgRKRi4CcotiaUjPbF3Viv1axnttiDPrPh2PxmSWNnwvOkf84Sy0zinOpLGJSkUIfkYZHgJrUxcMJMEvieWWF6U5OIMNb3JKwBKxQxQA1r3FHmog/s1656/breaking.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1656" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpeAvY8_2GSVTg7Qu4OMwHdgRKRi4CcotiaUjPbF3Viv1axnttiDPrPh2PxmSWNnwvOkf84Sy0zinOpLGJSkUIfkYZHgJrUxcMJMEvieWWF6U5OIMNb3JKwBKxQxQA1r3FHmog/w640-h290/breaking.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br />Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-24997469914718856892021-07-08T00:59:00.000-04:002021-07-08T00:59:05.370-04:00Tropical Storm Elsa Leaves Behind Flooding, Damage<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2f6Eht_RQzSQuJ4cv4Fy_epv95mI94GoWW5197Lls1E7tVAOsqnJG3SJaJ6sQimyiRxF6jbs4KDi2EXb-EV4OLDJbsox0sSUqFNVyOfqxDIBspAgRLr243ZBZFCIOv4RyO9Z0/s1200/goes16_ir_05L_202107071247.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="845" data-original-width="1200" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2f6Eht_RQzSQuJ4cv4Fy_epv95mI94GoWW5197Lls1E7tVAOsqnJG3SJaJ6sQimyiRxF6jbs4KDi2EXb-EV4OLDJbsox0sSUqFNVyOfqxDIBspAgRLr243ZBZFCIOv4RyO9Z0/w400-h281/goes16_ir_05L_202107071247.gif" width="400" /></a></div><p>The first, significant tropical disturbance of the season that developed from an African wave, impacted the First Coast as a tropical storm on July 7th. Elsa dumped several inches of rain, produced winds of 40 – 50 mph and was responsible for the formation of waterspouts and tornadoes.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb9z3Mb7M4Lw9llW_ThbI8oUIreIRnWZrfO5bUohxTPgZsCdI6CQboTmCGtp-zbuXzSGeDlnJeu0tkQ2NUVhYI7bq70IRHuqc7j4Z1w8bGzRviiEUrDtx-ikDr46QoUC4Pd7XQ/s876/breaking.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="876" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb9z3Mb7M4Lw9llW_ThbI8oUIreIRnWZrfO5bUohxTPgZsCdI6CQboTmCGtp-zbuXzSGeDlnJeu0tkQ2NUVhYI7bq70IRHuqc7j4Z1w8bGzRviiEUrDtx-ikDr46QoUC4Pd7XQ/w400-h344/breaking.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBO-LGoWlvFE1xPc5blH3CWTS2yRqo_IYzx7Y1MsG5quoj4w-hAbd1RMCvdiKBDc5NOODp_dmSucTu4e1-9JVJ8BqKMJxkGFobykfw6wIfvs0jmTGjb3cekxidc1K3t71nxsxT/s1280/capture3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBO-LGoWlvFE1xPc5blH3CWTS2yRqo_IYzx7Y1MsG5quoj4w-hAbd1RMCvdiKBDc5NOODp_dmSucTu4e1-9JVJ8BqKMJxkGFobykfw6wIfvs0jmTGjb3cekxidc1K3t71nxsxT/w400-h225/capture3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p>The system strengthened into a tropical depression in the central Atlantic on July 1st and quickly moved across the basin. In fact, its forward speed was around 30 mph, which is rare for a tropical cyclone to keep together, while having that fast of a forward speed. Despite not having the best development scheme, Elsa become the season’s first hurricane in the Caribbean. Forecast models had difficulty maintaining and keeping a solid forecast with the storm. Despite the lack of model continuity, the National Hurricane Center outperformed on intensity forecast and the system’s track.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2OPnEVH-xhrJq60HIdi5G7jVvVBKIIr8Ecdr06B8KYp_VAl7ekhZ70g5__F3GnK7hlsjRHwc3NevRh8igPCMaXQcpcUNawdWCalpQA7F98fbzZBS2Pg_xEOhLNnNBiJD6KfAS/s898/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="898" height="444" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2OPnEVH-xhrJq60HIdi5G7jVvVBKIIr8Ecdr06B8KYp_VAl7ekhZ70g5__F3GnK7hlsjRHwc3NevRh8igPCMaXQcpcUNawdWCalpQA7F98fbzZBS2Pg_xEOhLNnNBiJD6KfAS/w640-h444/Capture.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><p>The center of Tropical Storm Elsa got within 90 miles of Jacksonville. The area starting feeling significant effects several hours after the storm made landfall near Steinhatchee, FL. The storm officially made landfall with sustained winds of 65 mph and a pressure of 999 mb. In the Jacksonville area, our highest wind gust was around 50 mph, with many locations reporting gusts around 40 mph.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi68ibATWNRb52BEmuoBqqphiHTliLIPVMdJlU7H2SXD6z_OCEeEBt8DxKZTq_lYagFXn1TQdN-nS2xrbgAEaoijJ-4FBAT1UT3RKQidN5s9KqdU_bQ1vd9IDOmf0odMj2021aK/s1163/breaking.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="739" data-original-width="1163" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi68ibATWNRb52BEmuoBqqphiHTliLIPVMdJlU7H2SXD6z_OCEeEBt8DxKZTq_lYagFXn1TQdN-nS2xrbgAEaoijJ-4FBAT1UT3RKQidN5s9KqdU_bQ1vd9IDOmf0odMj2021aK/w640-h406/breaking.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><p>The two big impacts to come out of Elsa where the rains and the severe weather. The area saw between 1” to 6” of rain, which led to isolated flooding in the common, flood-prone areas. Elsa produced several waterspouts and at least 3 local tornadoes. Damage from these tornadoes was reported in Lake City, the Philips Highway area of Jacksonville and at Kings Bay in Southeast Georgia. The inclement weather is blamed for damaging a tree, which fell on a vehicle, and killed the driver on U.S. 17 in Ortega. And at least 10 people were injured during the sizable tornado in Southeast Georgia. </p><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzrsFXgRhRtMFJe4htzb2XjvX90_rmMUNhXUpw0xBZ-QGWCOcCbyXXD8uAL8vKAT4QUBMLTd-1GQ09b-LUhV-v9_KEGJSLmMLoDREMlc2SRNsM8lkvn1zT_rVsG_QTBMXAAvJn/s843/tornado.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="493" data-original-width="843" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzrsFXgRhRtMFJe4htzb2XjvX90_rmMUNhXUpw0xBZ-QGWCOcCbyXXD8uAL8vKAT4QUBMLTd-1GQ09b-LUhV-v9_KEGJSLmMLoDREMlc2SRNsM8lkvn1zT_rVsG_QTBMXAAvJn/w640-h374/tornado.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-1142603409159192012021-07-04T04:16:00.000-04:002021-07-04T04:16:03.497-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #6: Tracking Elsa<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8TXIqk6F7RGznNRWxuBqzsFXbl8k9u0QSKnAWP8-h6H0pT_JhHMy9CzKi6cPfMRcQwbKS4eG0gYtmxkgaxyxu4YuhBRssbzssZoZbr362WkSIzASKgD3pF5DWXfQSrHqanXIZ/s1200/ad583fa4-e9a0-491f-b55c-cca1790e3142.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="746" data-original-width="1200" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8TXIqk6F7RGznNRWxuBqzsFXbl8k9u0QSKnAWP8-h6H0pT_JhHMy9CzKi6cPfMRcQwbKS4eG0gYtmxkgaxyxu4YuhBRssbzssZoZbr362WkSIzASKgD3pF5DWXfQSrHqanXIZ/w400-h249/ad583fa4-e9a0-491f-b55c-cca1790e3142.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p>This week’s tropical headlines are dominated by Elsa. It’s
really the only game in town. The Atlantic basin as a whole is heading towards
an unfavorable period of drier air and increased wind shear. The hostile
conditions will likely last through the end of the month and leave us by a
blockbuster August and September.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyvD-aX84DovrA3n2iCyAVOdAwrccAP-PoYtWlQyXSG8yNUD7A7YPHWl14bZVknaF64tfGqWEOjv3apYj9Jdjo8fY4GeJgQQ5K8nKcoZrAoMS0wxiEptkF_lRhNsAr38fRUxrb/s897/MAP1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyvD-aX84DovrA3n2iCyAVOdAwrccAP-PoYtWlQyXSG8yNUD7A7YPHWl14bZVknaF64tfGqWEOjv3apYj9Jdjo8fY4GeJgQQ5K8nKcoZrAoMS0wxiEptkF_lRhNsAr38fRUxrb/w400-h329/MAP1.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal">
Elsa formed on July 1, becoming the earliest “E” storm ever seen in the
Atlantic basin. Elsa was upgraded to a category 1 hurricane near Barbados on
July 2. Thunderstorm activity was not able to remain organized because of shear
and the storm’s fast forward movement of between 28 – 30 mph. As of this
posting, Elsa was a strong tropical storm between Haiti and Jamaica. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The system will have 2 chances to intensify- once before landfall in Cuba and
once before landfall in Florida. If Elsa is able to intensify into a hurricane before
landfall on Monday, it will increase chances it’ll be able to reorganize into a
hurricane before landfall early Wednesday on Florida’s Gulf Coast. The impacts on the First Coast will depend on the exact landfall location. Impacts
will be felt Tuesday – Thursday and include heavy rainfall, rough seas, isolated
severe storm and gusty winds. Isolated areas could see as much as 6 inches of
rain, from the system. While we are not expecting damaging winds, gusts to 40
mph will be possible, especially on Wednesday.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitKrdJV2Zrie4Acp-YZxVDdoVnzTVi9HKgSGdkCYGQeFlRfWdbBRwhjR_SFmEuCd1Gdf3hgLZJyxKTt31zjfZQStsU7E513rWhOW_t5mkwNhqlqNu2qhDk-1wd0KYqpCXD5_Bq/s1251/Capture1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1251" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitKrdJV2Zrie4Acp-YZxVDdoVnzTVi9HKgSGdkCYGQeFlRfWdbBRwhjR_SFmEuCd1Gdf3hgLZJyxKTt31zjfZQStsU7E513rWhOW_t5mkwNhqlqNu2qhDk-1wd0KYqpCXD5_Bq/w640-h376/Capture1.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<p class="MsoNormal">To recap: Elsa will be the only feature to track this week
in either the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean or Atlantic Ocean. So far this year, we
have 5 named storms, including 1 hurricane. The next name on the 2021 season
list is Fred.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqk3gvKlnTNIF2NMNXIp5VGLV0ggx_4Zaty7iuDOf_0LBzPlZeE4WNrBmqIn7nTLN_Mp7anff8yqVGqHClgcqIw6t26OMzCqPvZlyOjA2irSKszj54SZdmzOlG062qGqMpCfBc/s1053/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="708" data-original-width="1053" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqk3gvKlnTNIF2NMNXIp5VGLV0ggx_4Zaty7iuDOf_0LBzPlZeE4WNrBmqIn7nTLN_Mp7anff8yqVGqHClgcqIw6t26OMzCqPvZlyOjA2irSKszj54SZdmzOlG062qGqMpCfBc/w640-h430/Capture.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-78825850343533649452021-06-26T21:28:00.001-04:002021-06-26T21:28:11.286-04:00Tropical Outlook Week #5: Plenty to Monitor, Quiet Overall<p><span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeoSv14T5oS9tzvNlOaNTH4LymmS1Fr4ZH9SvmdTqYBUa3FmT7q8bl6hfpH6HITS08E8mn1UILo_ujw2VTg3nastNOhceGzouoiWVIqUxoF2DwWO_F6pgVJVFeWOFn8n1rUuuj/s1200/7b024051-2fa1-4fbf-8654-bd6cfdf59232.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="1200" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeoSv14T5oS9tzvNlOaNTH4LymmS1Fr4ZH9SvmdTqYBUa3FmT7q8bl6hfpH6HITS08E8mn1UILo_ujw2VTg3nastNOhceGzouoiWVIqUxoF2DwWO_F6pgVJVFeWOFn8n1rUuuj/w640-h324/7b024051-2fa1-4fbf-8654-bd6cfdf59232.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />The end of June and the start of July will feature a couple a
disturbances in the Atlantic basin but none are near the stage of cyclogenesis.
Overall, the structures of the disturbances has been impressive but the hostile
conditions of June have proven too much for them to overcome.</span><p></p><p><span style="color: #212121;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidvFo1Pr-xu1u6S-vQudbHc2yjMk20N9bM4q-RihgdLl4aaFO2KaAjglBkm2GjjmHnRMtfqIlRv3w_Gi35EbIE9mQ77fOz7Ml8_3PmlBe09Sep7Wt2QbzHyKfRCuDU4V7cuqDQ/s1118/shear.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="841" data-original-width="1118" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidvFo1Pr-xu1u6S-vQudbHc2yjMk20N9bM4q-RihgdLl4aaFO2KaAjglBkm2GjjmHnRMtfqIlRv3w_Gi35EbIE9mQ77fOz7Ml8_3PmlBe09Sep7Wt2QbzHyKfRCuDU4V7cuqDQ/w400-h301/shear.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUfvi9X6K4pxBksZ5_wy8-43Wibq4r6cxsZLl_CgkPJdA2NbHrhnJNfd1g-g6s6FcFzBI0PKdGbs9CfD62UKFD-2l6JG1SiC1P0Gw6Y_RlYzPOroyPgoQhyIWrjTib8_GEXuU1/s1542/sand.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="820" data-original-width="1542" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUfvi9X6K4pxBksZ5_wy8-43Wibq4r6cxsZLl_CgkPJdA2NbHrhnJNfd1g-g6s6FcFzBI0PKdGbs9CfD62UKFD-2l6JG1SiC1P0Gw6Y_RlYzPOroyPgoQhyIWrjTib8_GEXuU1/w400-h213/sand.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #212121; line-height: 107%;">
As we enter the new month, conditions are becoming more conducive for
development, as you would expect this time of year. Shear continues to greatly diminish
across the Atlantic basin and the waves of Saharan dust continue to become more
sporadic in their trips across the ocean from Africa. </span></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #212121; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimNHprjBXhK6FtB8uq7dKYO1Q0yH0Pf_uTZJ2fJNuN9aXodaq9ezSyGO9FLckXBLY5Mlw5W8-CYPLphWGS3JzNLBX8LFWqrdXByXsgVaYQ6zjdaXW1YWaLTEpSocG3RBxXk0Vw/s465/out.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="465" data-original-width="445" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimNHprjBXhK6FtB8uq7dKYO1Q0yH0Pf_uTZJ2fJNuN9aXodaq9ezSyGO9FLckXBLY5Mlw5W8-CYPLphWGS3JzNLBX8LFWqrdXByXsgVaYQ6zjdaXW1YWaLTEpSocG3RBxXk0Vw/w383-h400/out.PNG" width="383" /></a></div><span style="color: #212121; line-height: 107%;"><br />
The hindrance will be that the</span><span style="background: white; color: #202124; line-height: 107%;"> Madden-Julian Oscillation (</span>MJO)<span style="color: #212121; line-height: 107%;"> and the upward waves of
vertical velocities, won’t be favorable until the end of the month. We’ll
likely see the next formidable cyclone develop late in July or in early August.
The next name storm will be Danny. On average, the fourth name storm doesn’t
develop until mid-August. But, again, the fifth week of the tropical season
will be quiet in the Atlantic basin.</span></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #212121; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4r-OdWxzYf6IL0WTGE8r0mHJqyFxC24XCeZp8ZTdE8PjlpoBL-ktFbW7HLnw1DGhyphenhyphenNvGZdB1Lv2YG6aO_frdoLYeUGsuxqLqFLhDBIn_u_kmenv-XeiXjin657EKelqJnl5EO/s1148/names.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="701" data-original-width="1148" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4r-OdWxzYf6IL0WTGE8r0mHJqyFxC24XCeZp8ZTdE8PjlpoBL-ktFbW7HLnw1DGhyphenhyphenNvGZdB1Lv2YG6aO_frdoLYeUGsuxqLqFLhDBIn_u_kmenv-XeiXjin657EKelqJnl5EO/w640-h390/names.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="color: #212121; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span></div></div>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24439025.post-25860095506241563992021-06-21T23:37:00.006-04:002021-06-21T23:37:52.937-04:00Remembering 2012’s Tropical Storm Debby<p><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdtVpq9-5xDzT6SJbDLjDXGse-68q3Vs1lENpH5xKP5C_IFCJXtxGGbZjhcXPxtPdiHzCgPap59AcW5E-ILCl3xEgbOnRKJ7H7FgDXjfcjyPg5FfhzlT9OMkR20EJriGBkzKiH/s895/AL042012_5W_012_A.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="716" data-original-width="895" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdtVpq9-5xDzT6SJbDLjDXGse-68q3Vs1lENpH5xKP5C_IFCJXtxGGbZjhcXPxtPdiHzCgPap59AcW5E-ILCl3xEgbOnRKJ7H7FgDXjfcjyPg5FfhzlT9OMkR20EJriGBkzKiH/w400-h320/AL042012_5W_012_A.gif" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />Tropical Storm Debby in 2012 provided a good reminder for
residents in North Florida that you don’t need a major hurricane to see
widespread damage and problems. Debby formed during late June meandered for
several days in the Gulf of Mexico. Hostile conditions prevented the system
from ever getting organized. It eventually made landfall on June 26 as a weak
tropical storm, just north of Cedar Key.</span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ5tmaou3vQH3i148tm445egTtPxih3DMoWKBPd9bDyex6MG-URYZxpDnlj-MT-ebgBpA6Z7ClzJXYIsbadxIomZNqKFSSiUYZKuDJzVk0ZY2Ws08NQPRyynP-bVomE24VAKPJ/s1033/Debby_2012_rainfall.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1033" data-original-width="800" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ5tmaou3vQH3i148tm445egTtPxih3DMoWKBPd9bDyex6MG-URYZxpDnlj-MT-ebgBpA6Z7ClzJXYIsbadxIomZNqKFSSiUYZKuDJzVk0ZY2Ws08NQPRyynP-bVomE24VAKPJ/w496-h640/Debby_2012_rainfall.png" width="496" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: inherit;">
Despite its weak status, record rainfall and severe weather were reported in
several parts of the state. Rainfall amounts approached 30 inches in some part
of North-Central Florida. Rainfall amounts from the tropical storm were the
highest since Hurricane Dora back in 1964. The heavy rainfall led to hundreds
of homes being damaged or destroyed and several major roadways, including I-10,
State Road 90 and State Road 98 being impassible.<br /><br />
The heavy rainfall led to several large sinkholes opening in parts of Northeast
Florida and even forced the evacuation of parts of Live Oak. Jacksonville
reported 13.78 inches of rain and hundreds of homes along the Black Creek
reported damage from high water levels. A daily record of rainfall was reported
on June 25 in Jax, with 7.36” falling during the 24 hour period.</span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLx8QVn5Y1c8k0VPbRiEmls3O22CwQmD7JhYgUrT2Zkf5vasqMGZpf62FMTZEMWjJTuEHyco6xwRAoy5p6QleFMtc7WNKwSjaavGvU_3gwGR4Oh9U7ciEhXTiTK3W7USPFMe00/s954/Tropical_Storm_Debby_Tornado_Map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="717" data-original-width="954" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLx8QVn5Y1c8k0VPbRiEmls3O22CwQmD7JhYgUrT2Zkf5vasqMGZpf62FMTZEMWjJTuEHyco6xwRAoy5p6QleFMtc7WNKwSjaavGvU_3gwGR4Oh9U7ciEhXTiTK3W7USPFMe00/w400-h301/Tropical_Storm_Debby_Tornado_Map.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
Its estimated 21 tornadoes formed during the tropical cyclone, keeping National
Weather Service Offices busy, across the state. It’s estimated the tropical
cyclone led to $250 million in damages and at least 10 deaths in the Southeast.
Despite the damage and destruction, the World Meteorological Organization did
not retire the name. The name “Debby” was used during the 2018 season and will
again surface during the year 2024.</span><br /><o:p></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkRg886YlXf2MHmiB1fE6QOy3BbNCflkF8_nzGu0_v-Imi4TvX2pPLbt65dckCk8L_eLx_0QE9W4zP1q-ATq80jfNpigk3v5c8A13J30uTyuYT5e0xDVbomRLDHgE-uveg4uCO/s720/d2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="720" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkRg886YlXf2MHmiB1fE6QOy3BbNCflkF8_nzGu0_v-Imi4TvX2pPLbt65dckCk8L_eLx_0QE9W4zP1q-ATq80jfNpigk3v5c8A13J30uTyuYT5e0xDVbomRLDHgE-uveg4uCO/w400-h300/d2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2wJ6yqNaBh1bHyKTC8t7MCdYCc9rogkQIVkUvEbQOTQR7rckQrOlYG0pHYz26u4j0NBGxyc4dfGfCP_UAzeubsmQqH6eCHhyFIWbV-fYnXQS_-KyEp3SPt46HknikV42mD0ij/s1024/d1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2wJ6yqNaBh1bHyKTC8t7MCdYCc9rogkQIVkUvEbQOTQR7rckQrOlYG0pHYz26u4j0NBGxyc4dfGfCP_UAzeubsmQqH6eCHhyFIWbV-fYnXQS_-KyEp3SPt46HknikV42mD0ij/w400-h300/d1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p>Andrew Wulfeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03546447604010534767noreply@blogger.com0