Matthew = Wilma ???

Matthew has an chance to follow a similar track as Wilma and have about the same strength. Computer models are split on the exact evolution of Matthew. The usual, reliable computer models take the storm into Central America and weaken the storm. The newer computer models are following climatology this go around and make Matthew a West Coast of Florida problem.

Here is the bottom line:

- No tropical threat for the next 6 days.
-Pattern has changed for the worst. Several possible tropical threats exist.
-Increase in moisture next several days

- Flooding should become a concern next week

Wilma's Track:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Formed	October 15, 2005
Dissipated	October 26, 2005
Highest winds	185 mph (295 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure	882 mbar (hPa; 26.05 inHg) (Record low in Atlantic)

Tropical Threat to First Coast Increasing

Now that fall is upon us and the tropics are still active it is time to look at different areas that will be threatened by topical systems. Why? The global weather patterns are in the midst of change and that could be a bad thing for the United States, particularly Florida.

The new weather pattern does not have a high pressure system protecting the Southeast. Instead, cold fronts will dictate exactly where tropical systems will go and who will be affected.

Time For Fall

Summer officially ends this Wednesday at 11:09 PM and autumn begins. With the season change comes the changing of the leaves. We don't see leaves change colors here in North Florida because of the amount of sunlight and its intensity throughout the year.

The peak times of leaves changing colors has already started across northern parts of the U.S. Places in the Southeast usually don't peak until late October through November.




How do colors change? As summer ends, the green pigments in leaves deteriorate, giving other colors a chance to shine. Carotenoids, the pigment that makes carrots orange and leaves yellow, are exposed as the green fades. Reds and purples come from anthocyanins, a pigment that is formed when sugars in leaves break down in bright autumn sunlight.

Heavy Surf & Rip Current Threat

Hurricane Igor will not directly affect the First Coast but indirect effects will be felt. Waves on the order of 7-9 feet will happen on coastal beaches from Saturday until Monday. Along with the heavy surf rip currents will be at high level for the next week.

If caught in a rip current:

• Remain calm to conserve energy and think clearly.
• Never fight against the current.
• Think of it like a treadmill that cannot be turned off, which you need to step to the side of.
• Swim out of the current in a direction following the shoreline. When out of the current, swim at an angle--away from the current--towards shore.
• If you are unable to swim out of the rip current, float or calmly tread water. When out of the current, swim towards shore.
• If you are still unable to reach

Any Threats to Us or the U.S. in the Tropics?

• Julia: eastern Atlantic hurricane- never will be a threat to land
• Karl: a tropical storm in the Caribbean- will be a nuisance for Central America
• Igor: ??? Threat to North Carolina or Bermuda ???
  

Julia and Karl are no threats to Florida or the United States.

The jury is still on the future path of Igor but if history and models tell us anything then Igor will recurve harmlessly away from the U.S.


With 3 more names out of the way is hurricane season 2010 winding down to a close? NO. Within the next week there should be Lisa and Matthew to track in the Atlantic Basin. Statistically 48% of the hurricane season remains so buckle your seat belt.

Did you know that more tropical cyclones strike Florida during the month of October than any other month? hmm.....

Tropical Troubles Next Week?

This weekend will not be filled with any tropical surprises. It is too soon to say whether or not the same can be said for next weekend. Tropical Storm Igor is gradually becoming better organized and by early next week, will be a hurricane, in the central Atlantic. Sound familiar?

We have seen numerous storms follow the same general path this season, so far.

The question is whether Igor will have the same fate. Right now the extended forecast of Igor is up in the air. Two paths are possible. Great implications exist depending on exactly what path Igor takes.

GOOD NEWS: For at least the next 9 days, Igor will not affect any land areas.

What's up with the Heat?

So why is it warm outside? Simply put- the Southeast is in a similar weather pattern to what you would likely find during early summer. High pressure is centered over central parts of the state of Georgia and will likely remain there for some time.


What this means for us high temperatures will be around 90 degrees for at least the next week until a significant storm system ushers in a pattern change. Right now, there are none on the immediate horizon.