March is usually the month that comes in like a lion, but it is looking like more and more like January will take suit. Within a period of about 2 weeks, North Florida could go from near 80 degree temperatures, to harsh cold, to even severe storms. What a month! And it hasn't even begun.
The only real chance the area has to get to 80 degrees is on Sunday the 1st. A dry cold front will push into the region, during the first week of January, and will usher in "cooler" air. Technically temperatures will be average, with highs near 65 and lows in the lower 40's. It certainly will be a dose of what reality should be, for this time of the winter.
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| January 2nd Synoptic Scenario |
Forecast models show an extended period of coldness. And some even show the area struggling to get into the 50's for highs, around the 5th-8th. I think the cold outbreak is overdone by the forecast models. There simply is not the conveyor belt of snow for the cold air to travel down to from Canada. Some places in Canada have not even seen snow this season! Snow levels are between one third and one half below normal in North America. And without snow in place, cold air masses have a hard time making it to the Deep South and into Florida.
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| Current Snow Cover |
Any type of precipitation is a long way off, but it is still in the long range forecast. The clash of cold air and unseasonable warm air will create enough of a lift for severe weather, for some portion of the Southeast. The exact location is unclear, as of this point. It should be noted that Florida and North-Central Florida are no strangers to severe weather, during the heart of the winter months.
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| January Severe Weather? |
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It was just last January that a deadly tornado outbreak struck Central Florida. This severe weather outbreak really started the ball rolling on the active and infamous 2011 severe weather season. It is too soon to tell on whether the severe weather in 2012 will mirror the activity seen in 2011. So stay tuned!
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| Severe Weather Outbreak January 2011 |
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