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Latest Models On TS Chirs

on August 01, 2006

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Time For Fall

Summer officially ends this Wednesday at 11:09 PM and autumn begins. With the season change comes the changing of the leaves. We don't see leaves change colors here in North Florida because of the amount of sunlight and its intensity throughout the year. The peak times of leaves changing colors has already started across northern parts of the U.S. Places in the Southeast usually don't peak until late October through November. How do colors change? As summer ends, the green pigments in leaves deteriorate, giving other colors a chance to shine. Carotenoids, the pigment that makes carrots orange and leaves yellow, are exposed as the green fades. Reds and purples come from anthocyanins, a pigment that is formed when sugars in leaves break down in bright autumn sunlight.

Tropical Storm Irene Forms

Tropical storm Irene is the ninth named storm of the 2011 hurricane season. There are two big questions with this storm: 1) How strong will the storm get? 2) Where will she go? Right now, the latter of the questions is easier to answer than the future strength. The storm will track between two areas areas of high pressure before it feels the weakness created by a trough. The end result is a track that is either near Florida or one that makes landfall on the State. Forecast models have been in relatively good agreement about this for a few days. Any threat from Irene would not come before this Friday (August 26th). The good and bad news with the storm is that future intensity is not known. Forecast models depict anything from a tropical storm to a hurricane, around the Florida Peninsula, next weekend. The best guess is, right now, Emily will have a tropical storm status, if best, at its closest approach to Florida. We have seen this scenario time and time again, and e...

Busy Times In The Weather Center- Tracking Cold Temperatures and Severe Storms

March is usually the month that comes in like a lion, but it is looking like more and more like January will take suit. Within a period of about 2 weeks, North Florida could go from near 80 degree temperatures, to harsh cold, to even severe storms. What a month! And it hasn't even begun. The only real chance the area has to get to 80 degrees is on Sunday the 1st. A dry cold front will push into the region, during the first week of January, and will usher in "cooler" air. Technically temperatures will be average, with highs near 65 and lows in the lower 40's. It certainly will be a dose of what reality should be, for this time of the winter. January 2nd Synoptic Scenario Forecast models show an extended period of coldness. And some even show the area struggling to get into the 50's for highs, around the 5th-8th. I think the cold outbreak is overdone by the forecast models. There simply is not the conveyor belt of snow for the cold air to travel down to f...

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