After a relatively cool summer, our fall weather pattern will depend largely on what happens in the tropics. A majority of our summer days were between 1 – 3 degrees below normal. The cooler weather was caused by a combination of rain and the lack of any type of westerly flow, which usually helps us heat up.
Autumn will officially begin on September 22 at 3:21 p.m. and this year it
looks like our fall could be the reverse of what we have seen the last several
months. Ridging over the Eastern U.S. could keep the warm breezes through much
of the season. This means we’ll likely see a cooler than average September, but
October and November could be warmer than average. In late September and early
October, we usually start looking for fronts to start cooling us down. With
more ridging in place, it is doubtful we’ll see many fronts make their way to
the First Coast. The lack of fronts will also impact our precipitation.
Fall will likely be drier than average. Usually we see around 10 inches of rainfall during fall. However, this year, with the lack of fronts, the amount could be down significantly. A major wild card this year will be if a tropical system impacts the region directly. Any impacts from a cyclone would significantly increase precipitation and lead cooler conditions.
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