This week’s tropical headlines are dominated by Elsa. It’s really the only game in town. The Atlantic basin as a whole is heading towards an unfavorable period of drier air and increased wind shear. The hostile conditions will likely last through the end of the month and leave us by a blockbuster August and September.
Elsa formed on July 1, becoming the earliest “E” storm ever seen in the Atlantic basin. Elsa was upgraded to a category 1 hurricane near Barbados on July 2. Thunderstorm activity was not able to remain organized because of shear and the storm’s fast forward movement of between 28 – 30 mph. As of this posting, Elsa was a strong tropical storm between Haiti and Jamaica.
The system will have 2 chances to intensify- once before landfall in Cuba and
once before landfall in Florida. If Elsa is able to intensify into a hurricane before
landfall on Monday, it will increase chances it’ll be able to reorganize into a
hurricane before landfall early Wednesday on Florida’s Gulf Coast. The impacts on the First Coast will depend on the exact landfall location. Impacts
will be felt Tuesday – Thursday and include heavy rainfall, rough seas, isolated
severe storm and gusty winds. Isolated areas could see as much as 6 inches of
rain, from the system. While we are not expecting damaging winds, gusts to 40
mph will be possible, especially on Wednesday.
To recap: Elsa will be the only feature to track this week
in either the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean or Atlantic Ocean. So far this year, we
have 5 named storms, including 1 hurricane. The next name on the 2021 season
list is Fred.
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