SEVERE WEATHER ALERT:

Monday, June 05, 2006

Tropical Weather Discussion

GULF OF MEXICO/WRN CARIBBEAN/CNTRL AMERICA/ERN PAC...THERE IS A CLEAR SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE CURRENTTROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF COSTA RICA. THE NAMPARALLEL/00Z CAN/AND EVENTUALLY THE NAM DRAG THE SYS ACRS THEISTHMUS INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE GULF OFMEXICO IN VARIOUS WAYS. THE 12Z CAN IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT TO THEWEST FROM ITS EARLIER SOLN...BUT ITS SOLN IN THE NERN GULF OFMEXICO AND SRN CANADA IS NOT PREFERRED...SO ITS SOLN W/THIS SYS ISLIKELY SUSPECT AS WELL. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET KEEP THE SYS ON THEPACIFIC SIDE...WHICH WAS PREFERRED. THE SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS INTHE H5 PATTERN ACRS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MAKE THIS ASLOW MOVG SYS... AND LANDFALL OF THE SYS IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATEDTO BE ALONG THE CNTRL SECTION OF THE SRN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUTA WEEK. THE CURRENT SOLN IS CLOSEST TO THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...BUTTHERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY. STAY TUNED.

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