Saturday, June 27, 2009

>>>Tropics Watch

The active weather around the region today may be a precursor to what happens next week. Tropical moisture has been propagating for days in the Caribbean Sea and gradually getting better organized. Water temperatures are plenty warm in the area for development. Computer models, at this point, point towards Florida as the likely recipient of this tropical system, if by the way, when named, would be Anna. There are two camps of thought on the movement of the current area of disturbed weather. Scenario 1 (40% Chance of happening): Tropical wave follows an area of high pressure into the western Gulf and eventually into Texas. Scenario 2 (60% Chance of happening): A trough in the Southeast becomes strong enough and dips far enough south to pick up the tropical wave and pull it northeast into Florida. Before any type of intensification occurs, a low-level circulation needs to form. At this point, only a mid-level circulation exists. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday.

No comments: