Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Tropical Update

A flare up in the western gulf is mainly at the upper levels & should move into Mexico with no development. There is a tropical wave nearing the central Caribbean that is running into wind shear. Another wave near 40 west that is weak with dry air wrapping into it. S.W of the Cape Verde Islands is another wave with good convection that also is wrapping in a lot of dry air & dust. None of these systems concern me for development this week with the exception of the wave near the Cape Verde Islands that could flare up in the western basin late week but something tells me that those pesky upper level winds should still be there & not allow development. The wave that concerns me right now is over Africa & should emerge in the Atlantic mid week. By late week or the weekend this could attempt to become a depression.

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