SEVERE WEATHER ALERT:

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

Is Winter Over?

Is Winter Over? Almost. The worst of what winter has to offer is over, even though winter officially lasts until March 21st. There is an important trend to notice, which does provide insight on how the remaining months of winter will be.

Winter's Summary (So far)
-December: -8.9 degrees below normal; 19 freezes
-January: -4.5 degrees below normal; 9 freezes

Because Jacksonville's start of winter was so cold, it is likely that mother nature will try to balance herself out and provide us with warmer weather. Long range models agree with this scenario. The next freeze appears to be about 10 day from now! (See the model depiction of temperatures below)

>GFS Forecast Model Temperatures at select times:

     Tue 02/08 18Z     66 °     64 °    
     Wed 02/09 06Z     66 °     40 °    
     Wed 02/09 18Z     40 °     29 °         
     Thu 02/10 06Z     39 °     25 °    
     Thu 02/10 18Z     41 °     23 °    
     Fri 02/11 06Z     46 °     32 °    
     Fri 02/11 18Z     55 °     31 °         
     Sat 02/12 06Z     57 °     38 °         
     Sat 02/12 18Z     61 °     37 °         
     Sun 02/13 06Z     63 °     47 °        
     Sun 02/13 18Z     69 °     46 °        
     Mon 02/14 06Z     70 °     55 °        
     Mon 02/14 18Z     72 °     54 °        
     Tue 02/15 06Z     72 °     58 °        
     Tue 02/15 18Z     75 °     58 °        
     Wed 02/16 06Z     77 °     64 °        
     Wed 02/16 18Z     68 °     62 ° 

Synoptic Scenario Setup for Much of the Month of February and March.
 High pressure centered over portions of the western Atlantic Ocean is one reasons for the more moderate conditions. Southerly winds, produced by the high pressure system, will help bring warm, tropical up from Southern Florida.  


 Jacksonville Average February:
Precip: 3.9 inches of rain


High: 66°F


Low: 43°F


Conclusion: So, winter is almost over. February, despite having a couple of freezes, will have above average temperatures and above average rainfall.  That means spring will sprout early! If you have any sod or plants to plant, anytime after the Febuary 14th is looking a-okay!

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