|Depiction of Positive NAO|
|Squall line quickly weakens as it enters North Florida.|
NAO (Negative): 43
NAO (Positive): 17
What this means is that as the NAO turns negative, we will have to watch for severe weather. Because of the extreme heat, as well as, converging jet streams the percent chance of severe weather will be the at the highest threat levels, so far, this year.
A negative NAO tends to have fewer storms over the North Atlantic and more over its mid sections. The dominate Atlantic high, which protrudes into the Southeast during positive NAO events, weakens and heads eastward. This leaves the Southeast usually vulnerable to an active pattern. This scenario is exactly what is in the pipeline for the last week of March and first week of April.
|Negative Phase Setup of the NAO|
|NAO Turns Drastically Negative|
>GFS Forecast Model:
Number of Signifcant Storms: 3
Precip.: 3.00 inches of rainfall