Friday, March 04, 2011

Major Severe Weather Outbreak Sunday 3/6

Continuing to watch an impressive storm system for the First Coast. Its wrath will be felt on Sunday. Strong winds look like the main concern with the thunderstorms. Can't rule out tornadic activity nearby. The Storm Prediction Center is missing the ball, with this storm, as it pertains to the First Coast. Officially, we are only in a designated 5% zone for severe weather. The likelihood for severe weather should be around 15%-25%. The best chance of rain is from just after the noon hour to around sunset. Rainfall amounts will total around one inch, across the entire area.

There are several reasons why I am calling for SEVERE thunderstorms:

First: Dew points will be on the high side, for this time of year. (Dew points likely around 65 degrees.)
Sunday Dew Points

Temperatures from 75-80 degrees.
Sunday Temperature

Precipitable water content  will be 1.25 to 1.75 inches (moderate moisture content). P.W. is the amount of moisture that exists in the complete vertical column, above our heads.

Precipitable Water Content

Four: EHI Values will be from 0.3-0.8. This index combines both CAPE and helicity.  Both are asociated with the amount of potential spin in the atmospehere.

EHI > 1
Severe Weather Likely
Supercell potential
1 to 5 up to F2, F3 tornadoes possible
5+ up to F4, F5 tornadoes possible

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