Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible For First Coast

All the right ingredients seem to be coming together for a severe weather outbreak tomorrow (Wednesday) night. What will be most telling is tomorrow's launch of the weather balloon. The weather balloon will tell us if the atmosphere is charged up enough and if winds are aligning in various layers of the atmosphere. 

Example of Readings from a Weather Balloon.

The Storm Prediction Center has a large portion of Florida and Southern Georgia under a slight risk zone for Wednesday. Any given area within the green zone has about a 15% chance of seeing a damaging storm. What will be most telling is whether the morning starts out cloudy or if we get some substantial daytime heating.

Heavy Storms Surround Area @ 7pm 
Rainfall will average around 1.0 inch across a good part of the area. Severe threats will be hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. The best chance of seeing strong thunderstorms will be from 2:30 PM to 7:45 PM.

EHI levels are at values that are alarming, if sufficient heating exists.  This index combines both CAPE and helicity.  Both are associated with the amount of potential spin in the atmosphere. EHI values will approach 2.5.

 EHI Legend:
EHI > 1
Severe Weather Likely
Supercell potential
1 to 5 up to F2, F3 tornadoes possible
5+ up to F4, F5 tornadoes possible

More information and fine tuning as it comes in....

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