SEVERE WEATHER ALERT:

Wednesday, April 06, 2011

Busy 2011 Hurricane Season Forecast

The 2011 hurricane season is likely one that will be both active and complex. The best basis for this season's analysis is the 2010 hurricane season. Last year's season got of to a relatively "slow" start. But due to a moderate La Niña, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season finished well above-average with the most number of named storms since 2005.

>2010 Hurricane Season
-Total storms: 19
-Hurricanes: 12
-Major: 5


On to the analysis for the 2011 Hurricane Season...

The 2011 Hurricane Season will go into the record books as another extremely active year. Atmospheric conditions will closely mimic those of the past season.  While the overall number of storms may be similar, there will be distinct differences between 2010 and 2011. One distinct difference will be the strength of the storms. Expect a higher number of major hurricanes (115 mph+) compared average and even last season.  Secondly, general track patterns will be different. Instead of portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico being under constant barrage, it appears that the eastern Gulf (New Orleans, LA to Fort Myers, FL) will be under the gun multiple times. 

2010 Hurricane Tracks

My 2011 Hurricane Threat Zones
Red= High Threat
Yellow= Above Average Threat

Reasons for busy 2011 season:

1) La Nina is likely to be around for the hurricane season and weak to moderate in nature. Over half of the computer models agree with this assessment.

La Nina/ El Nino Forecast Models


2)  Water temperatures will be above average in critical, tropical development locations. Water temperature forecasts can also give a hint on where high pressure systems will park themselves. Notice the cooler than average waters forecasted in the central and western parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Could this symbolize the main path tropical systems will take? Possibly. Notice the cool Gulf of Mexico and central Atlantic? These symbolize my two areas of focus for the season and my strongest analog, 1950 (shown below).


3) Surface pressures will be around average for most of the Atlantic Basin. Not making it tough for systems to form. (Notice pressures are forecasted to be lower than average over parts of the U.S. These lower pressures could act as a magnet for tropical systems. Especially during the months of July, August, and September)



Analog years:





Average Hurricane Season:
-Total Storms: 12
-Hurricanes: 6
-Major: 3


My 2011 Hurricane Season Forecast:
-Total Storms: 17                                                                   
-Hurricanes: 10
-Major: 6


Hurricane Names for 2011:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

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