>2010 Hurricane Season
-Total storms: 19
On to the analysis for the 2011 Hurricane Season...
The 2011 Hurricane Season will go into the record books as another extremely active year. Atmospheric conditions will closely mimic those of the past season. While the overall number of storms may be similar, there will be distinct differences between 2010 and 2011. One distinct difference will be the strength of the storms. Expect a higher number of major hurricanes (115 mph+) compared average and even last season. Secondly, general track patterns will be different. Instead of portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico being under constant barrage, it appears that the eastern Gulf (New Orleans, LA to Fort Myers, FL) will be under the gun multiple times.
|2010 Hurricane Tracks|
|My 2011 Hurricane Threat Zones|
Red= High Threat
Yellow= Above Average Threat
Reasons for busy 2011 season:
1) La Nina is likely to be around for the hurricane season and weak to moderate in nature. Over half of the computer models agree with this assessment.
|La Nina/ El Nino Forecast Models|
2) Water temperatures will be above average in critical, tropical development locations. Water temperature forecasts can also give a hint on where high pressure systems will park themselves. Notice the cooler than average waters forecasted in the central and western parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Could this symbolize the main path tropical systems will take? Possibly. Notice the cool Gulf of Mexico and central Atlantic? These symbolize my two areas of focus for the season and my strongest analog, 1950 (shown below).
3) Surface pressures will be around average for most of the Atlantic Basin. Not making it tough for systems to form. (Notice pressures are forecasted to be lower than average over parts of the U.S. These lower pressures could act as a magnet for tropical systems. Especially during the months of July, August, and September)
Average Hurricane Season:
-Total Storms: 12
My 2011 Hurricane Season Forecast:
-Total Storms: 17
Hurricane Names for 2011: