Tuesday, May 17, 2011

2011 General Hurricane Patterns

There are two main paths that long term forecast models are picking up on, as it pertains to tropical systems. One, of which, is the through the Caribbean and into the eastern parts of the Gulf of Mexico. Computer models do not forecast future paths, that are months away. Instead, the best meteorologists have to look at are pressure anomalies.

ECMWF Model Output for pressures
Blue areas indicate pressures that are forecasted to be lower than normal. Yellow, orange, and red colors reflect pressures that are suppose to be, generally, higher than normal. Of course, for tropical cyclone activity and future movement, those lower pressures are needed.

The second major area, that multiple cyclones should follow, is around and just to the north of the Caribbean islands. These tropical systems will get close to the Southeast coast but most should recurve.

ECMWF Model Output for pressures
Another important point to take away from the maps is that this will NOT be a season of long track hurricanes. Pressures are too high and water temperatures are too cool in the eastern parts of the Atlantic Ocean. In fact, water temperatures have continued to decline, in temperature, over the last several weeks.

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