SEVERE WEATHER ALERT:

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Tropical Storm Arlene Forms- No Threat To U.S. Coastline

First Track of Arlene
Arlene is currently a weak tropical storm, with winds of 40 mph. Atmospheric conditions are marginal for additional development. Shear is around 20-30 knots, which is one of the variables that will hinder development. 
Shear- as of June 28th.
An additional feature that will hinder the storm's development is its moisture envelope. It is rather large for such a weak storm. This means that it will struggle with its attempts to wrap-up and get stronger. Think of the scenario that is occurring to be similar of that of a figure skater. A figure skater is not able to gain momentum if his or her arms are floating, in the open air, away from his or her body. The arms create drag. However, if he or she brings in their arms closer to their torso, the momentum will increase. And that is exactly what Arlene will not do, that is bring her arms, of moisture, towards the center of circulation. In addition, she is close to running out of real estate. In other words, there is not much more water that stands between the center her eventual landfall, somewhere in Mexico.

Storm's Moisture Extends Around 800 Miles.
So, where will Arlene likely travel over her next 24 hours over water? A high pressure system that is controlling about two-thirds of the weather, in the eastern part of the U.S., will push the tropical storm towards the west. There is no dispute with this account, since every dynamical model agrees with this scenario.

Synoptic Scenario For Arlene
Model Tracks- As Of June 28th
Landfall Location
With computer models in steadfast agreement, landfall will likely happen between Tuxpan, MX and Tampico, MX, as a weak to moderate tropical storm. Winds will likley be around 55 or 60 mph as the storm makes landfall during the day on Thursday.

Arlene will undoubtedly be remembered for the heavy rain that she will produce. Between 1 and 2 feet of rain is possible in northeast Mexico. Specifically, the heaviest rainfall will fall in the Tampico region of Mexico. Parts of southern Texas will also pick up on much need rainfall. Parts of southern Texas are in an exceptional drought. Between 5-10 inches of rainfall is possible in the Rio Grande Valley.

Precipitation Forecast

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