Monday, June 20, 2011

Tropics Are Quiet

Once again, the next 5-6 weeks will be quiet in the tropics, with minimal development expected. There is a chance that a system tries to get going in the Bay of Campeche. But, it will likely quickly drift into Central America and stay weak.

June 20th Satellite Image
As for the rest of the Atlantic, the tropics will remain unusually quiet for the rest of June and for most, of the month, of July. The MJO, as well as, upward vorticites will remain negative, for the Atlantic Basin. These negative factors will remain in place until the final week of July. It is at that point when tropical development will likely happen. In fact, as July wraps up, there could be a significant cyclone in the Central Atlantic. As August starts, we will likely be tracking our first hurricane, nearing the Caribbean Islands.  

Upward Vorticity Anomalies For Next Several Weeks

 African Dust Likely To Become Widespread
But remember, until late July/early August, tropical development across the entire Atlantic Basin will remain minimal, if not, nonexistent.                             

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