Saturday, July 30, 2011

91L Likley to Become Emily

With a new month comes possibly another named storm in the Atlantic Basin. There is both good and bad news, with this potential storm.  The bad news is that it will likely create hurricane conditions for islands in the northern Caribbean. The NHC has labeled the disturbed area of weather with a 90% chance of development.

Development has been and will continue to be slow. Conditions are not completely ideal for quick development. Water temperatures could be warmer and shear could be less. Shear could actually increase in the short-term, for the storm, to about 30 knots. This fact, in combination with the system's quick movement, do not bode well for the storm. Once the storm gets on the other side of the negative factors, development to at least a strong tropical storm is possible. After this point, the storm will affect the northern Caribbean Islands.

Model Consensus
The Northern Antilles, US-British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic will take the worst brunt of what the storm has to offer.

Model Plots
The good is that a weakness will develop between the high pressure systems. What this will do is turn the possible "Emily" turn the north and eventually to the northeast. As of right now, all of the models are pretty gun hoe on this philosophy. This means the store will likely not affect any part of U.S. mainland, if computer models remain good agreement.

Emily's Possible Scenario


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