|Previous July Formations of Named Tropical Cyclones|
This July, I think that the southeastern part of the Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche Area) could produce an additional cyclone. If you remember, Arlene, this year's first named storm, formed there and ended up making landfall on Mexico. It is plausible that this scenario happens again, during this month.
For the majority of us, interested in the tropics, it will certainly feel like a slow producing month. And it will be because of certain limiting factors. First off, shear continues to be relatively high across many of the climatological producing areas.
|MJO- As of Early July|
|Upward Vertical Velocities|
>In summary, Bret, the next named storm, could form during the month of July. But, it will likely not become strong and overly destructive. It looks as though Cindy will have to wait well into August. Late August looks like it will be particularly busy. So stay tuned!