Friday, July 15, 2011

No Significant Tropical Development Anytime Soon

Officially, the Atlantic Basin is suffering from "La Nada" conditions. This is basically the wavering between the status of El Nino and La Nina. Overall, upper level winds are too strong for development and deep, warm ocean water is mediocre, as it pertains to current coverage. 

Wavering Between El Nino and La Nina

These poorer conditions for development are likely to continue for sometime. Velocity potential forecasts depict deteriorating conditions for the rest of the month and into a good deal of August. In fact, at the current rate, the 2011 hurricane season is looking more and more like a dud. It will be at least the mid to late August under we see marginal development conditions take over the basin.
Velocity Potential Forecasts

There is a caveat to this hypothesis, though. A strong tropical wave is likely to form in the central Atlantic. It may or may not gain the name of Bret. Whether it does or does not gain a name, will not be of any consequence. The system will face the wrath of dry air and hostile winds. These hostile conditions will keep the possible system far away from the U.S. and  possibly even the Caribbean Islands.

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