To put it in not so flattering terms, the tropics are about ready to rumble. Currently, there are only a few tropical waves to track in the basin. But if indications are correct, then the dawn of Don will be right around the corner. So far, none of the three storms that have formed have reached hurricane status. This statistics, too, will also change.
Shear levels have decreased significantly over much of the Atlantic Basin. One would have guessed that this would the case sooner rather than later thanks to the wavering of the weather pattern between "La Nada" and "La Nina." Another factor that usually produces shear are upper level lows. But, as of now, much of the Atlantic Ocean is free of TUTTs or upper level lows.
|7-27-2011 Atlantic Satellite|
|Shear Values: Brighter Colors Indicate Higher Areas of Shear|
So, as the calendar page gets ready to flip another page, upward vertical velocities are set to increase, shear will continue to minimize, and water temps will continue to stay warm. Even though these conducive will likely produce a couple of named storms between now and mid-August, there is no need to worry.
|Vertical Velocity Anomalies|