Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Tropical Corner: Tropical Weather Happenings

To put it in not so flattering terms, the tropics are about ready to rumble. Currently, there are only a few tropical waves to track in the basin. But if indications are correct, then the dawn of Don will be right around the corner. So far, none of the three storms that have formed have reached hurricane status. This statistics, too, will also change.

7-27-2011 Atlantic Satellite
Shear levels have decreased significantly over much of the Atlantic Basin. One would have guessed that this would the case sooner rather than later thanks to the wavering of the weather pattern between "La Nada" and "La Nina." Another factor that usually produces shear are upper level lows. But, as of now, much of the Atlantic Ocean is free of TUTTs or upper level lows.

Shear Values: Brighter Colors Indicate Higher Areas of Shear
So, as the calendar page gets ready to flip another page, upward vertical velocities are set to increase, shear will continue to minimize, and water temps will continue to stay warm. Even though these conducive will likely produce a couple of named storms between now and mid-August, there is no need to worry.
Vertical Velocity Anomalies

Patterns are such that the U.S. need not worry, at least through the mid parts of August. The first area to watch closely has been associated with tropical disturbances this season; it includes the NW Caribbean and extreme Southwestern Gulf. Dry conditions, brought to you by high pressure over the South, will likely guide whatever does form on a more westerly course towards Central America.  As for the second area of concern, we will likely be watching in the Central Atlantic.  As what ever does form gathers strength, a prolonged weakness will likely guide this it out into the open Atlantic waters, well away from land.

Two Areas of Concern

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