|Satellite Picture Of Storm|
There remain two important questions: 1) Will the weakening trend continue? 2) And where will Irene travel to?
Lets start off with the second question first. All of the more reliable computer models now never strike land and have this hurricane recurving out into the Atlantic Ocean. The computer models have a pretty good grasp on the storm and the synoptics. Don't be surprised if there is even yet another shift to the right. In fact, as I am writing this, the computer model that has always been on the left side of the model guidance (NAM model) is now coming in significantly right of its previous forecasts.
As for intensity, there appears to be lots of arc clouds on the western side of the circulation. This is clear evidence that the storm is being affected by shear and that the storm is declining, somewhat, in intensity. The SHIPS forecast model is evening forecasting increased shear around 20 knots, throughout the day.
|Computer Models Of Irene's Strength|