Tuesday, August 09, 2011

Next Week In Tropics

The next several days in the tropics look relatively quiet. There simply are not significant waves crossing the Atlantic, at this time. Remember that only around 20% of tropical waves actually develop into full-blown tropical systems.  

August 8th- IR Satellite
There are several reasons for the current lax of tropical activity. First off, more negative upward vertical velocities exist, over the Atlantic Basin (Indicated by the brown colors). Until these turn more positive (after Augsust15th), waves will have a hard time forming. Even if they do form, they will face even yet another hostility.
Upward Vertical Velocities
Saharan dust is quite heavy across the Atlantic Ocean. What dust does is squelch thunderstorm activity. This is why waves coming off the coast of Africa have looked better over the desert versus over portions of the Atlantic. Look for the dust to pulse downward during the next several days.
Active Dust Across Atlantic
>>In summary... The Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico will be free from tropical development through August 14th. When the next wave of tropical storms and hurricanes develops look for an increased Caribbean/US threat. Whenever the NAO is positive, these areas typically see increased tropical cyclone activity. The NAO looks to turn positive around August 13th.  

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