Monday, August 01, 2011

Tropical Storm Emily

Tropical Storm Emily has formed in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The big question is whether or not she will ever threaten the Eastern Seaboard. The answer to this question may not be solved until Thursday, since the forecast is not set in stone.

Why questions exist is because Emily will traverse over the most mountainous island in the Caribbean. This would be on the Island of Hispaniola. The island has five major mountain ranges: The Central Range, known in the Dominican Republic as the Cordillera Central, spans the central part of the island, extending from the south coast of the Dominican Republic into northwestern Haiti. It's altitude is almost 10,200 feet.

Mountain ranges tend to weaken storms tremendously. And this could be the case this time around with Emily. If Emily does in fact travel over the island, she will likely enter the western Atlantic as a minimal tropical storm. However, if she can somehow figure out a way around the island via a path that includes water, then will likely find ourselves with a hurricane threatening the Bahamas and parts of the Southeast.
Official Forecast Track- Over Island Of Hispaniola

Keep in mind that the initial forecast is right less than 75% of the time. Since the initial forecast has come out there has been ANOTHER substantial shift in the models. ALL forecast models have shifted east. The trough that will become a major factor is going to be significant enough that Emily will be affected by it. The question is when.

Forecast Models

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