Monday, August 15, 2011

Weekly Tropical Forecast

2011 Hurricane Season- So Far
Unusual numbers of weak tropical cyclones continue to develop in the Atlantic Ocean. We can already write off two more names on the list, Franklin and Gert. For the most part, land masses were sparred with both of these storms. Bermuda did end up getting a few showers and gusty winds from Gert, but, for the people on the island nation, it was just another walk in the park. Areas of troughiness have prevented storms from coming anywhere close to the coastline of the U.S.  

Troughiness Relaxes-Forecast
Do not get used to the pattern because we are on the verge of a pattern change. Notice areas of orange over the Northeast U.S. and over Canada, in the map above. Instead of troughs, we will be talking about more ridging in the East. This means drier times ahead for the First Coast. But what does it mean for the the tropics and the eventual evolution of Harvey?

It basically means that the chances are much better that he gets much closer to the U.S. then many of the previous storms this season. As for exactly where, the models are all over the place. Check out 2 solutions the GFS came out with within 12 hours of each other (below). The run solutions stretch from Central America to off the East Coast.

Harvey Landfalling in Central America

Harvey Recurving Away From U.S.
This model, nor any of the others, have a decent grasp on the pattern change. This is to expected. The common thread between the model runs is that they show Harvey being one big and ugly storm. A key to watch for will be the morning lows (produced by strong shot of Canadian High Pressure). If we continue to see lows in the Midwest on the cool side- watch out in the Southeast, tropical troubles could be near a state near you.

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