Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Tropical Season Not Over Yet...Still Watching For Caribbean Monster

Right now, there the Atlantic is busy with a couple of named storms meandering around. The good news is that these storms will never threaten land or get anywhere close to doing so. So, the question then becomes what is next in the tropics.

High Pressure Dominates Northeast

For clues on what will happen next, it is best to look at the pattern that is setting up. The new weather pattern that is setting up is classic for a fall La Nina. Generally, dry conditions in the East, associated with a large ridge of Canadian high pressure will ensue over the next couple of days. When this pattern sets up it is always a good indication to watch the Caribbean for significant tropical development. And, indeed, the forecast models are picking up on this scenario.     
 GFS Forecast Model
Long range forecast models continue to show an unsettled weather pattern through most of the first half of October in the Caribbean Sea. What will either be Rina or Sean is likely to be a significant cyclone. The main question that exists is whether or not any potential storm will threaten the U.S. Of course, it is too to early to say. Waters, in this part of the world, have been untouched this season and would likely support a major hurricane.
Potential Cyclone Energy That Exists In Water

No comments: