Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms- Not A Threat To Land

First Official Track For Ophelia

Forecast Models Plot

Tropical storm Ophelia is basically a doomed cyclone from the start. First off, shear and instability are both not on the side of the tropical system. Secondly, and most importantly, the Atlantic Ocean is on verge of seeing the collapse of the central guiding ridge. (Usually, when this happens it marks then end of the tropical weather threat for the East Coast.) For this tropical storm, it means that a recurve is in its future. The only areas that might see minimal impacts are the Leeward Islands and Bermuda. Any type of strong system is out of the question, at this point, because of the future path through hostile conditions.

Synoptic Scenario For Ophelia

What is still concerning is development in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models have been depicting, for sometime, a large hurricane that will affect the State of Florida during the first week of October. This should be no surprise since forecasts have pointed at this type of pattern setting up since April.

Potential Path For Tropical Systems From April 2011