|2011 Tropical Cyclone Paths|
The main difference between the season that is just now wrapping up and next season will be the sheer number of storms. The overall activity numbers should come in closer to average at around 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major storms. There are 2 evident reasons for the decrease in numbers. First off, water temperatures should be cooler in much of the tropical Atlantic. Secondly and most importantly, El Nino could the weather patterns, at that time, meaning more shear and less of a conducive environment for tropical cyclones.
|2012 Ensemble Model Water Temperature Forecast|
|Trends Toward El Nino|