Monday, October 31, 2011

2012 Hurricane Predication Already Showing Similarities And Differences Than 2011

The 2012 hurricane season is already showing some similarities and differences than what was experienced during the 2011 season. Seventeen named storms formed during the 2011 hurricane season.  The majority of those took a similar path- recurving off the Eastern Seaboard.
2011 Tropical Cyclone Paths
For the second season in a row, the Gulf of Mexico and the majority of the Caribbean will likely see limited hurricane activity during the 2012 season. Also similar will be the amount of tropical cyclone activity in the western Atlantic. Just like the 2011 hurricane season, the 2012 hurricane season should see an active Atlantic season.

The main difference between the season that is just now wrapping up and next season will be the sheer number of storms. The overall activity numbers should come in closer to average at around 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major storms. There are 2 evident reasons for the decrease in numbers. First off, water temperatures should be cooler in much of the tropical Atlantic. Secondly and most importantly, El Nino could the weather patterns, at that time, meaning more shear and less of a conducive environment for tropical cyclones. 

2012 Ensemble Model Water Temperature Forecast

Trends Toward El Nino
Even with the more apparent hostile conditions that could reign king over the Atlantic Basin, it is important to remember, at this point, there are not clear indications on general paths. So, it is too early to tell on whether we are talking about a high impact year or not. Remember, it only takes one storm strike to make a year seem significant and make a lifetime of memories.


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