Monday, October 24, 2011

Will Hurricane Rina Threaten Florida?

Rina is now a hurricane, just 21 hours after becoming a tropical depression. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the southeast, and these winds are injecting dry air into Rina. Rina will have to walk a fine line for the next couple of days, if she wants to continue strengthening.

Rina Forecast Models
Some computer models do show a strike on Florida, but it important to remember two things. 1) If, in fact, Rina gets close to South Florida it will likely be ripped apart. Wind shear is strong near the Florida peninsula- near 60 knots. Even 25 knots is high but would be more doable for the tropical system. 2) Because the tropical system has gotten stronger than forecasted, more quickly than forecasted it is likely to travel in a more southerly/easterly in the future.

Wind Shear

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