Expect An Active 2021 Hurricane Season

Early indications are that the 2021 season will pick-up where the 2020 season left off.  There are several signs that point towards the season being busy. If the season is active, it’ll be the seventh in a row with above normal activity- a new record for the most consecutive active seasons.

During an average season in the Atlantic basin, 12 named storms form, 6 become hurricanes and 3 usually become major, with winds of at least 115 mph. Several records were set during the 2020 season, when 30 named storms formed, 13 became hurricanes and 6 went on to become major cyclones.

There will be major differences between this year and last year’s seasons but the trend of the Atlantic basin being more active that average will continue. For the 2021 season, the Northeast Florida Weather Team is expecting 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 5 major cyclones.

There are two major components for the upcoming season that both indicate favorable conditions will prevail over the Atlantic basin during the summer and fall. La Niña looks like it’ll continue through the heart of the season, which usually leads to the enabling of tropical cyclones. Water temperatures, especially in the main development region, are warmer than average and that trend is expected to continue.

Long-term models depict water temperatures being warmer than average, more moisture in the main development region in Atlantic and less shear in western parts of the Atlantic. All of these indicators point towards the season being more active than normal. But there are subtle differences that appear to be aligning for the 2021 season.

The later months of the season (October & November) will not be nearly as active as what we saw during the 2020 season. Another difference is with the areas that appear more conducive for development than others. Early indications are that the Caribbean will be less active than last year and the western Atlantic will more active.

Expect updates on season outlooks in April from Colorado State University and in May from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. One thing that is guaranteed are the names for the 2021 season.


2021 Names:
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Elsa
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Julian
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda