The Atlantic basin which is comprised of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean will be quiet for the first week of the 2021 hurricane season. It is not unusual for the first week to be calm without activity. Water temperatures are warm enough for development but upper level winds won’t be on the conducive side. At a minimum for cyclone genesis to occur, water temperatures need to be at 26 Celsius or above. A large amount, as expected, of the basin is at or above this threshold. What will hinder any possible development over the week is shear. Much of the Atlantic has a solid stream of upper level winds traversing it, which makes development unlikely.
There will be brief upward wave of velocities that’ll pass through the Atlantic. So, there will be areas of thunderstorms to track towards the end of the week, but again, any organization should be kept in check. The MJO doesn’t appear like it’ll in the phases that leads to development in the basin. Generally speaking, the atmosphere prefers to be in phases 8, 1, 2 or 3 to see significant development.
Comments