For the second week of the season, the Atlantic basin will
again be quiet. The biggest question is what phase of the Madden-Julian
Oscillation is heading towards. Favorable conditions usually
exist in
phases 8, 1, 2 or 3. Some forecast are clustered in the favorable phases, while others keep the basin unfavorable for tropical development.
Right now the models aren’t in too good agreement on what comes next. Water temperatures remain warm enough and areas of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico will see an increase in moisture. But there are some hindrances for any possible tropical development. Shear will remain elevated, and it’ll be in part strengthened by developing cyclones in the eastern Pacific.
Cyclones, especially strong ones, can help add to the
wind shear outside of the system’s anticyclone. And this could be the scenario
that parts of the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean find themselves under, at
least for the next week, as the Pacific could produce one or two cyclones.
It is possible the National Hurricane Center could highlight an area in the Caribbean for development by the end of the week. But just because an area is highlighted doesn’t mean that development is guaranteed. It looks like it’ll be sometime before we see the next named storm in Atlantic basin. The next name on the list will be Bill. But once again, the period from June 7 until June 13 should be smooth sailing.
The 2021 season continues to be ahead of schedule. During an average year, the first named storm doesn't typically form until July 9th.
Comments