The last full week of June will feature the remnants of Claudette making its way off the East Coast and a couple of tropical waves in the far eastern Atlantic. Claudette developed over Louisiana and is one of the rare instances where a tropical disturbance is named over land and not over water. Claudette will exit the U.S. into the Atlantic early on Monday, where it could regain some organization. The good news is that it’ll head away from the U.S.
Elsewhere in the tropics, most of the basin is quiet except for two waves in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Development of these waves will not happen this week; however, the disturbances need to be monitored because they will make it into the western part of the basin. Conditions could be more favorable for at least one of these disturbances next week, as it moves towards Caribbean. Besides Claudette, no additional tropical cyclones are expected to form this week.
As the season approaches its second month, we tend to look further out in the basin for tropical development. A factor that plays crucial role are water temperatures. So far this year, the Atlantic basin as a whole is warmer than average. It’s important to note that several areas that are known for producing tropical cyclones have water temperatures that are either at or below average. It’s a trend we’ll monitor. Water temperatures tend to have a high variability through July.
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