The end of June and the start of July will feature a couple a disturbances in the Atlantic basin but none are near the stage of cyclogenesis. Overall, the structures of the disturbances has been impressive but the hostile conditions of June have proven too much for them to overcome.
As we enter the new month, conditions are becoming more conducive for development, as you would expect this time of year. Shear continues to greatly diminish across the Atlantic basin and the waves of Saharan dust continue to become more sporadic in their trips across the ocean from Africa.
The hindrance will be that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the upward waves of vertical velocities, won’t be favorable until the end of the month. We’ll likely see the next formidable cyclone develop late in July or in early August. The next name storm will be Danny. On average, the fourth name storm doesn’t develop until mid-August. But, again, the fifth week of the tropical season will be quiet in the Atlantic basin.
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