Fall Preview: Warm & Dry With An Eye On The Tropics

 


After a relatively cool summer, our fall weather pattern will depend largely on what happens in the tropics. A majority of our summer days were between 1 – 3 degrees below normal. The cooler weather was caused by a combination of rain and the lack of any type of westerly flow, which usually helps us heat up.


Autumn will officially begin on September 22 at 3:21 p.m. and this year it looks like our fall could be the reverse of what we have seen the last several months. Ridging over the Eastern U.S. could keep the warm breezes through much of the season. This means we’ll likely see a cooler than average September, but October and November could be warmer than average. In late September and early October, we usually start looking for fronts to start cooling us down. With more ridging in place, it is doubtful we’ll see many fronts make their way to the First Coast. The lack of fronts will also impact our precipitation.


Fall will likely be drier than average. Usually we see around 10 inches of rainfall during fall. However, this year, with the lack of fronts, the amount could be down significantly. A major wild card this year will be if a tropical system impacts the region directly. Any impacts from a cyclone would significantly increase precipitation and lead cooler conditions.




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