La Nina Watch 2021

It is likely before the year ends, the Northern Hemisphere will transition from a neutral climate status to a La Nina. The big question is when will the change occur and will it impact the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. And if you think that we just came out of a La Nina, you are right. If we head back into a La Nina, like experts predict, it would be a double dip back into the status.

Experts at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration give it a 66% chance of reentering La Nina sometime during the fall and lasting through the 2021-2022 winters. This chance is fairly high as pertains to climate forecasts. Experts believe the change from the current stage of neutral to La Nina will likely happen because of several factors. One of the factors is that water temperatures in the Pacific never really rebounded from the cool readings over the last year or so. Nearly every climate model agrees that the Northern Hemisphere will head back in the direction of La Nina.

The status of the climate could have impacts on our weather. First, it could mean there are less obstacles for developing tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Shear is usually reduced and water temperatures are warmer during La Nina events. Secondly, a La Nina winter could bring back cold air, similar to the 2020-2021 season.

Is an active hurricane guaranteed? No. Is a cold winter guaranteed? No. While the weather is not guaranteed, knowing the climate’s status can give us insight as to what is likely to occur given the state of the atmosphere.