Tropical Outlook Week #7: Atlantic Basin Quiet, Pacific Active

It’ll be the tale of two different basins during week 7 in the tropics. We’re likely to see at least one tropical cyclone form in the eastern Pacific while the Atlantic basin will remain quiet. Any system that forms in the Pacific will just be monitored for curiosity’s sake- it’ll never threaten land. The next named storm in the Pacific will earn the name Felicia.

A period of dry and downward velocities is moving across the Atlantic basin. These factors will make it difficult for tropical disturbances to develop into any type of cyclone. This period of inactivity in the Atlantic could stretch into next month. Conditions will be more favorable when the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) enters 8, 1, 2 or 3. It is not unusual for July to be quiet in the tropics. Usually we only see one named storm during the entire month.

There are signs as we get deeper into August it could be very active. The next named in the Atlantic basin will earn the name Fred. If the season predictions are accurate, we could see 15 more named storms, 8 more hurricanes and 4 of those could become major, with winds of at least 115 mph.

Read the local recap on Tropical Storm Elsa: CICK HERE