Tropical Outlook Week #8: Pacific Remains Active, Atlantic Shut Down

It might begin to sound like a broken record- the Pacific Ocean is active, while all remains calm in the Atlantic basin. There are changes on the horizon, but for the rest of the month and into early next month, there is no tropical cyclone activity anticipated in the Atlantic basin.

The favorable conditions in the Pacific has lead to the development of a major hurricane and a tropical storm. And we are likely to see one or two more tropical systems before the Atlantic heads back into production mode.  

Conditions are moderately favorable for development in the Atlantic, shear is manageably and the Saharan Air layer isn’t dominating. What is holding the Atlantic back from producing a tropical cyclone is an unfavorable MJO and suppressed waves of velocity. These factors look like they will be in control of the basin through the first week in August.

After the first week in August, look out! Atlantic tropical cyclone activity looks like it’ll come back in a big way and the uptick in activity could stay around for an extended period, possibly even into what is considered the peak of hurricane season. The next name on the 2021 list is “Fred”.