We are entering some of our last weeks, before the tropics
begin to turn active in the Atlantic. There are a few clusters of storms that
are being tracked but none show any significant signs of development. The
Atlantic basin has seen a downward trend of velocities and that’ll continue for
at least another week.
There aren’t too many negative forces out there that would
hinder a tropical disturbance, but there is one ingredient missing- moisture.
Shear is low in several of the development areas and water temperatures are
warm enough to sustain a tropical cyclone. There is a rather large area of
Saharan dust but that will diminish over the next week.
It is not unusual for July to be mostly quiet in the
Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. We usually on see one system develop
during the month of July. The peak months to see activity are August, September
and October, and it looks like those months will live up to their notoriety.
Long-term climate models continue to indicate favorable conditions over the
Atlantic basin during the peak climatological months.So far the season, 4 named storms and 1
hurricane have formed in the Atlantic basin. This is above normal activity. If
the season outlooks are correct, we could see 16 more named storms and 8 more
hurricanes. The next tropical storm will earn the name ‘Fred’.
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