The Atlantic basin has reached the climatological peak of the hurricane season. And believe it or not, there are no immediate tropical threats to the First Coast. Hurricane Larry will move into the North Atlantic, after becoming the season’s third major hurricane. Besides Larry, we’re also monitoring an area of disturbed weather known as invest 91L. The disturbance has been around for a week but the combination of land interaction and shear has kept has kept the system disorganized. It’ll continue to meander in the Gulf of Mexico and could enhance rainfall along the Gulf coast.
By the end of the week, we'll also start monitoring 2 additional areas for tropical cyclone development. One will be in the Northwest Caribbean Sea and the other will be off the coast of Africa. The area in the NW Caribbean Sea will be most concerning because of the direct threat to land and the potential for a significant cyclone to develop. The system off the coast of Africa will have a long way to go, if it ever develops or threatens land.
So, why the temporary break in tropical activity? It all comes down to the stage the atmosphere is in. Right now, the indexes aren’t align to see wide-ranging activity. This looks like it’ll start to change during the week of September 13th. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) will start to head into the phases that usually lead to an uptick in activity. At the same time, we'll be tracking an uptick in moisture that'll reach Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean later in September. This will aide in the conducive conditions the tropical cyclones will find.
This uptick in activity will likely last into early October. We have already seen the amount of cyclones seen during an average year. Additional developments in the Atlantic basin will only add to what has already been a busy year. Water temperatures are still plenty warm to support tropical development. 2021 has seen 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 3 majors, with winds of at least 115 mph. The season runs through the end of November.
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