Tropical Outlook Week #16: Plenty to Monitor

There is plenty to monitor across the Atlantic basin as the active 2021 hurricane season continues. There is a disturbance in the Gulf that will impact Texas and Louisiana. And there are several systems in the Atlantic that’ll need to be monitored for development.

One of the reasons there is plenty to monitor and little to track is because the Atlantic isn’t in the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) phases that usually lead to hyperactive activity. That being said, development of tropical cyclones can still happen, so we’ll be on the lookout for Nicholas and Odette.

The disturbance in the Gulf will be known as a rain maker, even if it doesn’t develop. Most of the rain will be centered over Texas and Louisiana. In the Atlantic basin, there are several areas to monitor but none are threats to the First Coast. What could be the most impressive disturbance and one to watch will emerge off the coast of Africa early in the week.

The disturbance that’ll be exiting off the coast of Africa will be at low enough latitude that it should be isolated from dry air and shear. This should allow the disturbance into a tropical cyclone as it generally marches westward. Because of its lower latitude, it’ll likely be a concern for the northern Caribbean islands.