For the 17th week of the tropical season, we’ll be monitoring 2 to 3 disturbances in the central and far eastern Atlantic. None pose a significant threat to land. At this point, neither is expected to undergo any type of rapid strengthening because of the state of the atmosphere.
The Atlantic basin has generally been hostile for tropical development over the last couple of weeks. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) isn’t in a phase that promotes growth of thunderstorms, across the Atlantic basin. In order for thunderstorms complexes to flourish, you really need to be in phases 8, 1, 2 or 3. The Atlantic is heading towards more active phases as we head to October.
For at least the next 7 days, there are no tropical threats to Florida. TD 16/Peter will be the closest feature to Florida, but at this point the only impact will be an increase in rip currents. There should be enough troughiness off the Eastern Seaboard to allow whatever becomes of TD 16/Peter to the north and the northeast, away from the U.S.
The Atlantic basin has already seen more named storms than an entire average
season does. With a busy October expected, its likely we’ll see several more
named systems for the season ends at the end of November.
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